I don't follow soccer at all, let alone MLS. But I think this is going to pay off for Apple.
As someone pointed out earlier, they have already surpassed 1M season passes, which I believe is $50/season. Obviously that is only about 1/5 of what they spent for the rights, but that doesn't take into account ads, and I imagine the trajectory was expected to be a shortfall for the first 3-5 years of the contract, then start being profitable on the last half of the deal.
And I would expect MLS can keep getting enough stars now and then to keep the interest up.
I think you nailed the difference between football in the US and soccer globally.
In the US we get general sports assumptions totally wrong. On the one hand we think the MLS won't be successful in Europe because they have much better leagues. Yes, but the timing works and the global/European appetite for the sport is enough that Apple can make this pay off.
In the US people think "people can't get enough football." Totally wrong. People are fanatical about the NFL, and big-time college football is a huge draw. The rest has very little interest and attempts at other leagues fail. We're seeing just how much appetite for college football inventory there is now with the PAC.
People also for some reason think Overtime Elite or the G-League is going to drain college basketball interest. First, once there's a steady state there are only so many roster spots that would-be college freshmen can take. Second, the only way for those leagues to be major players vs. CBB in a pay to play, I mean, NIL world is if people actually watched and made G League or Overtime Elite valuable media products. People don't watch or care, so they are worthless, and unless the NBA or investors want to pump money to prop up those leagues, they'll be irrelevant, and they won't be able to draw so much CBB talent that people will really care. Sorry, but the typical college basketball fan doesn't give two ***** that Scoot Henderson or the Thompsons weren't in college basketball for a year.