SDSU is absolutely going to the PAC. It’s only a matter of when. And also, if the PAC still has 2, 4, 6 or 8 of its current members.
Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)
- Thread starter ISUcyclones11
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SDSU is absolutely going to the PAC. It’s only a matter of when. And also, if the PAC still has 2, 4, 6 or 8 of its current members.
SDSU is at best going to the P12 as a backfill to a depleted league following additional defections. They aren't coming to the B12.
The SDSU AD is just trying to put pressure on the PAC to extend an invite by floating the B12 talk.
I don’t think he needs to do that at this point, everyone has been saying SDSU and SMU is fine out west- especially with the optics of SDSU making the championship.
That's kind of the way I interpret it. I s'pose PAC could call b.s. knowing SDS is way down the list of schools B12 would pluck.
98% agree, theyre a hard pass.
But i think theres a 2% chance they might be taken with UC, UA, ASU if Utah is just an even harder pass - due to:
1. BYU already being here and that impacts UU value that much
2. UU staying with UW and UO and thinking/hoping for a B1G invite
3. Just too much animosity on both sides
Again, i dont think its likely, but UU doesnt hold all the cards here.
There’s no scenario where SDSU to the B12 makes sense that doesn’t include the PAC getting stronger than the B12 and the B12 losing more members. Any scenario where SDSU gets a B12 invite has to lay out a plausible scenario where those two things happen before moving on to who the B12 backfills with.
UU holds no cards. There’s no plausible scenario where they get a B10 invite. They’re trying to keep the PAC viable and saying nice things about the B12 is counterproductive to that goal. If push comes to shove, they’ll take the deal with the best home they can get.
I say BY talks to them to force the PAC into decisions that they do out of panic.
If we have 2-3 other PAC schools, and we absolutely have to take another one at that time, we probably take another PAC remainder before we take SDSU. Absolutely all of them would be looking for the first life raft they could get at that point.
Not sure he can pressure Pac12 or Big12. Whether SDSU joins a P5 conference is entirely up to TV partners.
I doubt existing Pac12 or Big12 schools are willing to give up money to add new members. And even if SDSU, SMU, etc
are willing to join at a heavily discounted share in 2024, do they hurt per school distribution in 2030?
A 10 team Pac12 and 12 team Big12 are very viable between now and 2030.
SDSU can’t exert much pressure beyond fueling fan speculation. There’s no down side to it, but that’s all this is.
The PAC’s viability entirely depends on what kind of deal they can get. As of now, we only have reports and rumors, and the absence of a deal being presented to members is as good of an indication as any that the offers they have not on par with the deal the B12 got.
The PAC might get backed into a corner where they have to take whatever deal that’s in front of them. If it’s August and nobody’s jumped but they don’t have a deal, I’d assume the status quo sticks for however long their deal is and schools have decided just to deal with it.
However, I have a hunch anyone who knows they have an escape hatch to the B12 knows the date where they either have a PAC deal in place or their packing their bags for 2024.
- The offers all suck.
- WAOR (and maybe UU) want to delay as long as possible in hopes the B10 invites them.
- The corner schools don’t have to make a decision right now about staying or going. If the deal’s crappy enough, it might induce 1-2 to defect, in which case the run would be on.
Schools can't wait until August for Pac12 Conference to present a deal they can live with. Gotta believe any schools open to a Big12 move are going to make decision in next 45 days. And that is less than ideal.
I doubt Pac12 schools want the distraction stretching into summer recruiting cycle or fall camp.
Also it's been reported that SDSU's MWC buyout goes up after June 30
They only reason for SDSU to get in the B12 outside of a mass exodus of current B12 schools, would be the Presidents and ADs want to spend time in SD, there is no way that is financially viable at this point.
July 1st us my break date. If nobody’s jumped, they’re probably committed to the PAC for whatever the next deal is. I don’t think that kind of change gets done in less than a year.
By themselves, SDSU doesn't have the value. Where they have value to the Big 12 is they are in the PST, ASU/AU/CU alumni in Southern Calif., and basketball.