Bracket Discussion
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Not sure I wouldn’t prefer a 6 over a 5. College of Charleston, Oral Roberts, and especially Drake would be tough matchups and trendy upset picks as 12 seeds. Maybe even favored in Vegas.
Eh, when you play only five Quad 1 games all year (3 against one team) it's probably not a great look to be non-competitive and down 30+ points the entire second half. They are kind of an anomaly with their metrics. At least they tried to schedule some good non-conference games this year though.
Oh I get that and their Quad 1 games.
But losing to Gonzaga in the conference final (I don't think) is enough to drop you down a seed line. Especially when you throw in their metrics.
theyre also 10th in NET
I tend to favor playing a somewhat sketchy power conference team over a really solid mid-major most of the time.
Their NET ranking is a bit tough to explain. Only 5 Quad 1 games (2-3). Quad 2 must be doing some seriously heavy lifting for them (7-2), with 2 Quad 3 losses and 56% of their total games played against Quads 3 and 4.
I theorized much earlier in the season that this was a glitch in the NET calculation.
And optimistically, there would be an easier path to an elite 8. Baylor, Texas, or Arizona sound more beatable than, Purdue or Houston.
The pure NET rank seems to have several head-scratchers each season, both with some team's rank seeming much higher than its Quad collectively, or much lower.
The extremes this year seem to be Saint Mary's (NET quite a bit higher than quad profile) and Wisconsin (NET rank misleadingly low compared to its profile).
Re: the latter, so people don't freak out: I'm not suggesting UW is some kind of bid-lock, or that its resume is without flaws, but you have to go 16 slots higher to find another team that's in bracket discussions (and almost no team in between has a Q1 % that's better (6-7) with no Q4 losses)
None of them would be favored in Vegas. Vegas pretty much follows the computers and Iowa State is ahead of all 3 in that. In Sagarin, Iowa State is 32 and Drake is 56. It'd be similar to what it'd be if we played Oklahoma on a neutral court. Not a big margin, but at least a few points I think.
CoC and OR are in the 70s. I'd be they'd be 5-10 point underdogs.
Oh, by the way, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Michigan are going to be OUT.
Xavier and Virginia snuck by tonight. We had (may still have) a real chance to jump them for a 4 seed. Along with Indiana.
Here is graph of last 3 years cut line for NET and Kenpom. Shows how soft this year is that teams like Northwestern and Rutgers would be sweating/miss in year's past but are all listed comfortably in this year. Using previous cuts, B1G only has Purdue and Maryland comfortably in. Big 12 has 7 teams
Normally, I would say that conference tournament performance isn’t worth more than one seed line and that is at best; however, a tournament of beating Baylor, Kansas, and Texas would really challenge that theory. Of course, we have no idea where we were exactly at in the committee’s eyes going into this week.
Good point. I see Lunardi's last night update had us at the 5. Not sure what it would take to make the 4. Maryland over Indiana? But like you said, we might have been a 6 at best coming in, so 5 is our ceiling. Then I also wonder if it even matters with this group when they are clicking like this. (For those holding out hope still for Des Moines). Not sure location is going to matter to them.
We are a bit of a unicorn in terms of resume. Incredibly tough schedule, among the best, if not the best, in games against the top teams in the country, but with some losses to lesser competition that are good teams, but not great.
I could make a strong argument for a 3 seed if seeding was based on the potential to beat anyone on a given night. Wherever we land, any team in our bracket is going to wish they had drawn else.
lunardi has us as the first 5 seed-
indiana
virginia
xavier
uconn
are the 4 seeds.
Palm still has us as a 7 LOL. How can he and Lunardi be almost a 10 team difference on the seed line.
indiana
virginia
xavier
uconn
are the 4 seeds.
Palm still has us as a 7 LOL. How can he and Lunardi be almost a 10 team difference on the seed line.
We will be a 4 seed...we were a 3 when the initial reveal happened, and we've dropped about one seed line in the NET since then. 10 Quad 1 wins including 6 against teams that will be a 1 or 2 seed.
Our resume will be compared with the following teams: Xavier, San Diego State, K-State, Virginia, Kentucky, Michigan State, St. Mary's, Duke, TCU, Texas A&M, Indiana. It stands up very, very well against all of them. Including us, 4 of those schools will be on the 4 line (or higher).
Our resume will be compared with the following teams: Xavier, San Diego State, K-State, Virginia, Kentucky, Michigan State, St. Mary's, Duke, TCU, Texas A&M, Indiana. It stands up very, very well against all of them. Including us, 4 of those schools will be on the 4 line (or higher).