You're right, but I see it most likely or sooner in the SEC.
If they somehow get to pay players more directly without the NIL facade, it'll speed up the process of Texas demanding they get more than Mississippi State.
Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)
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You're right, but I see it most likely or sooner in the SEC.
If they somehow get to pay players more directly without the NIL facade, it'll speed up the process of Texas demanding they get more than Mississippi State.
Cal - 1915
UCLA - 1928
Oregon - 1915
OSU - 1915
USC - 1922
Stanford - 1918
Washington - 1915
WSU - 1917
History can be quickly thrown out the window for the right price. The SEC and B1G will not be immune
If it happens I will eat crow for it. I’ll continue to bank on the stability of the conference until an actual issue comes up though.
OSU is far and away the most valuable team in the conference. Yet they are getting the same as everyone else. And there are means within the same conference structure, through pushing unequal revenue sharing, to get more of that value. That's exactly the definition of leaving money on the table.
What would a conference with 14 Ohio State-level schools be worth compared to the current Big 10? It's hard to even do a comparison because they are a top 3 TV product, if not #1, so you can't really even do a hypothetical conference with real teams.
Looked at another way, what percent of the value of the next TV contract do you think Ohio State is responsible for. Personally I think this is understating OSU's value, but let's say it is as shown below, that would suggest OSU's media value is over 3x the per team average. Now I don't think they would ever try to go for that, but there are tens of millions of dollars in real estate between that value they bring to the conference media contract vs. what they receive. Or simply put, if OSU is responsible for 20% of the media dollars, and the per team average is $80m, they are worth $256m.
Ohio State: 20%
Michigan: 15%
USC: 10%
PSU: 10%
Wisconsin: 7%
MSU: 7%
Nebraska: 6%
UCLA: 6%
Iowa: 5%
Minn: 2%
Illinois: 2%
Rutgers: 2%
Maryland: 2%
Purdue: 2%
NW: 2%
Indiana: 2%
So I think OSU asking for say 1.5 times the average is not unreasonable at all. That's saying they are worth a little more than 9% of the TV media value. You really think if they decided to push this they couldn't get that done?
It wasn’t long ago that everyone thought it was going to be a P4 with four 16 team conferences with pods, and it would be some of the Big12 schools left out.
If they pushed the other schools would just say no. Also while OSU is top right now there is nothing saying they stay there. Bama is king yet from 1997-2007 they only had 3 ten win seasons. They also had 2 four win seasons and 1 three win seasons in that span. Just because a team is at the top now doesn’t mean they stay there. That is why unequal revenue sharing doesn’t happen in stable conferences because schools fortunes can change.
As the pot gets massively bigger, the top teams will be less happy with an even split, not more.
Shouldn't be that way because everyone is getting more money, but that's human nature.
You know what has been consistent in history? Greed. There is a lot more money being left on the table by these top tier programs, even in the B1G and SEC.
Texas has the biggest budget in the land and an army of wealthy, football crazy donors. And they still left for more money. USC has money. ATM has money. OU has money. Most of these moves have been the rich trying to find ways of getting richer. Which again is a pattern that likes to repeat itself over and over in the history of our society.
What you are trying to say is that OSU, UM, PSU, and OSU are going to say they are rich and powerful enough and don't need to find a way to get more. I don't typically see that from the richest and most powerful people and organizations in society. They are always hungry for more.
And as with other times in history we are in an accelerated time. More things happen, more things happen faster.
I agree the other members of the conference have no reason to agree to an unequal split. I don't see where the OSU has any leverage to force an agreement. When you're in the top conference, there's nowhere else to go. I disagree that teams values ebb and flow as you describe. The top teams are essentially the same as they were in the 1960s. Those values are determined by fan numbers and support, alumni numbers and support, media coverage, etc, etc. MSU can outperform Michigan 20 years running and Michigan will still be the more valuable athletic program.
Take the top 8 and merge with maybe
Alabama
Texas
Oklahoma
Florida
Texas aTm
Georgia
LSU
Auburn
Pretty lucrative situation
Yep, the super 32 league model…one of the many potential hurdles not mentioned that very well could upset FriendlySpartan’s B1G utopia.
Just looking at this as a SE-Sixteen with the top 8 from each looks like a license to print money.
Geographically across multiple time zones. Covers the south, midwest, west and touches on the northeast.
Big brands. Marquee match-up each week with big games that can be sponsored.
Keeps college football kind of normal, but not really. The haves get paid. The rest pound sand, but get enough to get by.
Sheesh, I went to my first CFB game in 1971, and B1G 0-2 teams have won a whopping 2.5 National Championship in football since that date. 1971-2022 is a B1G ass cycle!
FWIW, I like B1G Football and have seen every team in person, was a season ticket holder @ Northwestern for 5 years and have seen 13 / 14 of the current B1G teams in their home stadium. Only missing @ Rutgers.
IMO, they are only the B1Ggest and Best in their own minds on the gridiron. Most arrogant too. It's all smoke and mirrors.
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Oh I’m not comparing the on field results, big ten is trash in that regard for football and basketball. The arrogance thing is 100% accurate.
If we went that way which I really don’t think we will (or not for a very long time) sure you could be right. Things have to align perfectly for that though and both my schools would most likely get in so I would be fine there. Although sparty could get left out depending on how they did it.
Not sure the valuations are that extreme. But there is definitely a big variance. I think it was the LA Times article from earlier today, but a year ago the Pac 12 was confident they would get a $500M TV deal annually. Without USC/UCLA the Pac12 may be talking $200-$250M. So that would put USC/UCLA's combined value between $250-$300M. And I'd be surprised if UCLA is worth $90M of that.
On the bottom of the Big10, without the BTN carriage structure is Rutger's value any more than an upper tier AAC or MWC team? Nope.
Edit. The more I look at the % you list, probably not too far off. But I'd have Rutgers at 2% and maybe Iowa, Minnesota, Indiana, Purdue, etc are a little higher 3-4%.
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It’s not a marquee matchup each week. Because many of those schools would end up stuck at the bottom. Also your viewership would rank because it excludes a ton of people. The moment you go to a super league that is when the revenue drys up because a lot of people will stop watching.
I dont think the big dogs will break off from the Big 10 and SEC for quite some time, but I do have to laugh at the wishful thinking that they're happy and making money so why would they do this? They're always going to be looking for more money. You don't think 10 or 15 years down the line ESPN might be willing to pay a lot more for a conference that consists of Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, USC, UCLA, Wisconsin, Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Florida, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Clemson, and Florida State? Of course someone will have to be at the bottom, but no one will care when they sign the contract that triples their revenue.
Well, we are moving to probably a P4. Just taking a little different direction that people thought.