Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[FriendlySpartan]

What happens when ESPN goes to those top teams and says they'll give them $120m to play Illinois or $200m to play Alabama?

Good thing networks negotiate with conferences and not teams. That only changes when conferences go away which isn’t happening anytime soon.

Btw I fine the bipolar nature of discussing athletic revenue to be so interesting on this board. On one hand people constantly talk about the diminishing returns of AD dollars and how money doesn’t equal success like Texas. Then the same people talk about how a school like OSU would burn down their own conference, the richest and most stable conference at that, just for a couple extra million.

 

[Gorm]

Good thing networks negotiate with conferences and not teams. That only changes when conferences go away which isn’t happening anytime soon.

Yep, which is why the networks will talk directly to the teams before the conference rights come due.

 

[cyfanatic]

Good thing networks negotiate with conferences and not teams. That only changes when conferences go away which isn’t happening anytime soon.

Btw I fine the bipolar nature of discussing athletic revenue to be so interesting on this board. On one hand people constantly talk about the diminishing returns of AD dollars and how money doesn’t equal success like Texas. Then the same people talk about how a school like OSU would burn down their own conference, the richest and most stable conference at that, just for a couple extra million.

It is interesting...but isn't it also plausible?

 

[Gonzo]

IMHO we are going to see it after the 12 team playoff goes out to bid. Conferences could split their CFP monies along the lines:

1. 80% split evenly among teams.
2. 20% distributed to teams that earn playoff bids.

That favors schools like OSU, Michigan and USC. But all other Big 10 schools can earn the bonus if they put a team in the playoffs.

Depending how NIL evolves or athlete employee status could be the levers to push for uneven distribution. Wasn't it last summer that Ryan Day went on record with OSU alumni they would need a $15M NIL fund to "stay competitive".

Yeah I could see something like that happening, and would be 100% on board. If a school makes the CFP, they deserve a bigger cut of the CFP payout.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

And that might be enough. I just think a lot of these teams in the middle of the conference see $80m/team and think since they are in the middle they must be worth $80m/year. I don't think people fully grasp how much Ohio State, and to a lesser extent Michigan are the revenue in the conference.

Imagine the Big 10 gets to the end of the next contract and Ohio State, Michigan, PSU got together and said they are leaving the Big 10 and joining Notre Dame to start a new conference. Then they start opening it up for bids for the other 8-12 members. Be smart about scheduling and you'll have 2-4 games with those four teams alone that will draw huge numbers.

"Oh, Nebraska. You think you're worth $100M per year? Go F yourself and take your fake sellouts and balloon littering with you, because we can just plug Oklahoma State in for $35M."

"Iowa, you want $90M per year? Nobody outside of your dumpy ass little state really gives a **** about you or Iowa State, who, by the way just called and said they're good to go for $25M a year. So go back home and think really hard about how badly you want in and come back with a better figure."

Again you’re taking your own view based on what happened in the Big12 and just assume something like that would happen. That’s just not the way the big ten AD’s and more importantly presidents operate. Schools like Michigan have so much money we call it the Michigan money cannon. Just point it at what needs done and the horde of wealthy alums make it happen. OSU isn’t on that level but they are getting close.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

It is interesting...but isn't it also plausible?

Not in my opinion but that’s again my opinion.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

Yep, which is why the networks will talk directly to the teams before the conference rights come due.

Nope but good try.

 

[Gorm]

Nope but good try.

That is not an argument point. But good try.

If you don't think TV partners won't put a bug into the ears of the Teams they want to pay for, you haven't been paying attention to this latest round of re-alignment.

 

[AuH2O]

Good thing networks negotiate with conferences and not teams. That only changes when conferences go away which isn’t happening anytime soon.

Btw I fine the bipolar nature of discussing athletic revenue to be so interesting on this board. On one hand people constantly talk about the diminishing returns of AD dollars and how money doesn’t equal success like Texas. Then the same people talk about how a school like OSU would burn down their own conference, the richest and most stable conference at that, just for a couple extra million.

No one is saying OSU would burn down their own conference. They could go from being a benevolent overlord to a slightly less benevolent overlord. And it sure as hell will be for more than a couple extra million. And networks negotiate with conferences, but the conferences decide how the revenue is split.

As an interesting exercise forget geography and all that and compare these two hypothetical conferences. All other things being equal, how much more would a TV contract for conference A than B? 1.5x? Double? Triple?

A:
Ohio State
Michigan
Penn State
Notre Dame
USC
Alabama
Georgia
Texas
Oklahoma
LSU

B:
Ohio State
Michigan
Wisconsin
Nebraska
Iowa
Illinois
Minnesota
Northwestern
Indiana
Rutgers

 

[FriendlySpartan]

No one is saying OSU would burn down their own conference. They could go from being a benevolent overlord to a slightly less benevolent overlord. And it sure as hell will be for more than a couple extra million. As an interesting exercise forget geography and all that and compare these two hypothetical conferences. All other things being equal, how much more would a TV contract for conference A than B? 1.5x? Double? Triple?

A:
Ohio State
Michigan
Penn State
Notre Dame
USC
Alabama
Georgia
Texas
Oklahoma
LSU

B:
Ohio State
Michigan
Wisconsin
Nebraska
Iowa
Illinois
Minnesota
Northwestern
Indiana
Rutgers

That’s forming a super conference so that is burning down the conference

 

[FriendlySpartan]

That is not an argument point. But good try.

If you don't think TV partners won't put a bug into the ears of the Teams they want to pay for, you haven't been paying attention to this latest round of re-alignment.

Nope you’re just using the Big12 behavior to justify everything. What you’re talking about is a team negotiating its own rights and also schedule as an independent. It’s not as a network. I get that you want to see the big ten teams go through what ISU went through but the circumstances couldn’t be more different.

 

[Gorm]

Nope you’re just using the Big12 behavior to justify everything.

LOL

What you’re talking about is a team negotiating its own rights and also schedule as an independent. It’s not as a network. I get that you want to see the big ten teams go through what ISU went through but the circumstances couldn’t be more different.

I don't want ANY teams to go through what ISU has gone through. There is nothing stopping ESPN or another TV entity from saying "Hey we are making a 10 team super league and we would like you to be part of it." - We are already starting to see that happen. Once all the blue bloods are in one spot, the next logical step is to "cut the fat." If Ohio State and Michigan want to leave the Big 10 to form a conference with 8 other super teams, what is the Big 10 going to do to stop them when the GOR ends? Of course, if all the teams in the Big 10 want to all act as a cohesive unit, that is great. I'm not sure that is always going to be the case moving forward. We already saw some division within the conference creep up during 2020.

 

[AuH2O]

That’s forming a super conference so that is burning down the conference

I'm not suggesting that's what they would do or want to do. I'm trying to derive a rough idea of how much money OSU is leaving on the table.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

LOL



I don't want ANY teams to go through what ISU has gone through. There is nothing stopping ESPN or another TV entity from saying "Hey we are making a 10 team super league and we would like you to be part of it." - We are already starting to see that happen. Once all the blue bloods are in one spot, the next logical step is to "cut the fat."

And then within a couple years half those teams aren’t blue bloods any more and they are getting 3-10 win seasons. It legit doesn’t benifit these teams to form a super league and many of these AD’s have an ungodly amount of money. Why risk king status on this? Michigan in particular would never go for this. OSU I have no idea but I doubt it.

 

[Clonehomer]

Nope you’re just using the Big12 behavior to justify everything. What you’re talking about is a team negotiating its own rights and also schedule as an independent. It’s not as a network. I get that you want to see the big ten teams go through what ISU went through but the circumstances couldn’t be more different.

No. We're using the Big10 model of maximizing profits at all costs. If someone were to approach the top half of the Big10 with a proposal to double their income by joining their new division, you think they wouldn't listen?

 

[FriendlySpartan]

I'm not suggesting that's what they would do or want to do. I'm trying to derive a rough idea of how much money OSU is leaving on the table.

Without forming a super conference they aren’t leaving money on the table. They are sitting towards the top of the richest conference. All their expenses and wishes are more than covered. If the AD was asking for things and not getting them I could entertain your idea but the money at a lot of these schools is absurd.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

No. We're using the Big10 model of maximizing profits at all costs. If someone were to approach the top half of the Big10 with a proposal to double their income by joining their new division, you think they wouldn't listen?

Michigan wouldn’t for sure. Also what has the big ten lost? You say they are doing it at all costs but they haven’t paid a cost yet?

 

[Gorm]

And then within a couple years half those teams aren’t blue bloods any more and they are getting 3-10 win seasons.

Yep, and at the end of the contract, you change alignment. Perform or get demoted.

 

[alarson]

Nope you’re just using the Big12 behavior to justify everything. What you’re talking about is a team negotiating its own rights and also schedule as an independent. It’s not as a network. I get that you want to see the big ten teams go through what ISU went through but the circumstances couldn’t be more different.

I think it ultimately really depends on the evolution of TV rights spending going forward. A lot of the major media players have dumped a ton of money into these contracts but are becoming tapped out. It has been easier for some of the major players in the Big ten and SEC to go along with equal revenue when their revenue has been continually increasing. Yes they could have made even more if things have been distributed unequally but it's still easier to be happy when the money is still growing. If that continual expected growth comes to a halt, thats when we might see some of those big players start finding other ways to make sure that their revenue growth continues. That may mean some of them banding together to start their own new super conference, or using their leverage to push for unequal distribution.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

Yep, and at the end of the contract, you change alignment. Perform or get demoted.

Zero schools are agreeing to that the same way US sports teams don’t have relegation.