Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

The thing about the unequal revenue that made it “not work” is the teams getting the bigger cut saw they could get even more. All the coattail riders in the Big 10 and SEC are being overly optimistic. Just because OSU and Michigan have left money on the table before doesn’t mean they’ll keep doing it.

And it’s not like if they have to get a majority OSU and Michigan just say “we’re getting $150 and everybody gets $60, let’s vote.” OSU and UM could propose on say an $80 million per team average that they each get $120 along with USC. UW and PSU get $100m, MSU, Neb and Iowa get $90. Get enough teams at or above the average payout that you need to pass.

Now I appreciate that OSU has not pushed this, but it only takes one AD or Pres to simply use the immense leverage they have. And they don’t have to threaten to go to the SEC.

And it might take as little as OSU having a couple seasons where they feel like they have fallen a notch below Alabama and Georgia. I think as great as the last couple years has been for Michigan, I think they are at that point. They know they aren’t serious contenders with the top of the SEC. But what if they could clear $30-40m more than Bama and Georgia? Outbid them for assistants, wink and a nod to donors to divert donations to NIL…
Michigan would never do this. They are obsessed with doing things the right way. They make it difficult to get players and transfers a lot of the time because it goes against the schools mission. I might be bias as an alum but I just see no way.
 
I have read other Pac schools forums for a while to get a temperature of their fans. Here is your update on some of the Pac schools now from a few months ago.

General Mood: They would like to stick together still if there is a way. Big 12 is beneath them. Encouraged by news of a possible Pac-ACC merger. Some interest in Pac-Big 12-ACC merger. Little to zero talk in Pac-Big 12 merger.

Utah: Despises the Big 12 now just as much as before. Will go down with the ship.

Colorado: Resigned that the Big 12 may be their best solution. They hope Big 12 is just a temporary home. They believe they have a better chance to get into the Big 10 next cycle with Coach Prime building their "brand" up. If they go to the Big 12, they don't want to be locked into the GOR and want to dictate some terms.

Washington: Thinks the Pac 12 leadership is inept. No sense of panic however. Believes they we will get a Big 10 invite.

Oregon: Panic. They are worried the Pac will crumble and won't get a Big 10 invite.
Their best solution they say is still the Pac instead of Big 12. If go to the Big 12, they say it has to be on their terms.

Arizona State: A noticeable shift. Much more considering it or resigning themselves for life in the Big 12.

Arizona: More pro Big 12 than before which was already pro.

San Diego State: I threw them in. They were super pro Pac before with little interest in the Big 12. But their attitude has changed. With the recent bleak Pac news, more fans clamoring to engage the Big 12 quickly.
 
It’s the year 2028, schools are now permitted to pay players directly and the Big Ten is negotiating its next TV rights deal. This last off-season, Iowa outbids USC for a star California kid. To add salt to the wound, Iowa beats USC in LA and finishes ahead of them in the conference standings. Big Ten fan boys still post on message boards that there is no possible way the conference would ever entertain unequal revenue sharing.
 
You're focusing too much on conferences. The next step is for the top 16 - 20 schools to break from the NCAA and form their own league. They aren't taking the bottom half of the conference when that happens. Look at the European Superleague proposals for how this is going to work.
I have been saying since OuT that the superleague rapture is coming. Listen to the below and understand why, better than I can explain it.

And the objection "someone has to lose" is irrelevant because its TV driving it for high-viewer matchups, it has nothing to do with who wins or loses. One game with 6M viewers is worth a heck of a lot more than 12 games with 0.5M viewers.

Its just a matter of time. ISU will be 2nd tier, and it might be fun enough, honestly. We dont really compete with Bama and Ohio St anyway. The biggest downside is that Iowa is probably even money to make the cut; depends how big it is. I think 24 is the number.

 
I have been saying since OuT that the superleague rapture is coming. Listen to the below and understand why, better than I can explain it.

And the objection "someone has to lose" is irrelevant because its TV driving it for high-viewer matchups, it has nothing to do with who wins or loses. One game with 6M viewers is worth a heck of a lot more than 12 games with 0.5M viewers.

Its just a matter of time. ISU will be 2nd tier, and it might be fun enough, honestly. We dont really compete with Bama and Ohio St anyway. The biggest downside is that Iowa is probably even money to make the cut; depends how big it is. I think 24 is the number.



Truthfully, if the conferences were blown up by this and we went back to geographical based conferences, I'm all for it. Yes, it'd be tier 2, but it'll fell like college football again instead of NFL minus the salary equality.
 
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I have been saying since OuT that the superleague rapture is coming. Listen to the below and understand why, better than I can explain it.

And the objection "someone has to lose" is irrelevant because its TV driving it for high-viewer matchups, it has nothing to do with who wins or loses. One game with 6M viewers is worth a heck of a lot more than 12 games with 0.5M viewers.

Its just a matter of time. ISU will be 2nd tier, and it might be fun enough, honestly. We dont really compete with Bama and Ohio St anyway. The biggest downside is that Iowa is probably even money to make the cut; depends how big it is. I think 24 is the number.


If Iowa make the cut then they are the whipping boy of that league. Their system/program is designed to beat the mediocre. And thankfully for them they play a lot of mediocre teams most weeks. Put them in a league where everyone is as good or better and they will crater.
 
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I have been saying since OuT that the superleague rapture is coming. Listen to the below and understand why, better than I can explain it.

And the objection "someone has to lose" is irrelevant because its TV driving it for high-viewer matchups, it has nothing to do with who wins or loses. One game with 6M viewers is worth a heck of a lot more than 12 games with 0.5M viewers.

Its just a matter of time. ISU will be 2nd tier, and it might be fun enough, honestly. We dont really compete with Bama and Ohio St anyway. The biggest downside is that Iowa is probably even money to make the cut; depends how big it is. I think 24 is the number.


I still think that will amount to killing the goose that laid golden eggs.
 
I have been saying since OuT that the superleague rapture is coming. Listen to the below and understand why, better than I can explain it.

And the objection "someone has to lose" is irrelevant because its TV driving it for high-viewer matchups, it has nothing to do with who wins or loses. One game with 6M viewers is worth a heck of a lot more than 12 games with 0.5M viewers.

Its just a matter of time. ISU will be 2nd tier, and it might be fun enough, honestly. We dont really compete with Bama and Ohio St anyway. The biggest downside is that Iowa is probably even money to make the cut; depends how big it is. I think 24 is the number.


I would be fine with a 12 team super league breaking off and schools like Iowa and Purdue being on our plane.
 
I would be fine with a 12 team super league breaking off and schools like Iowa and Purdue being on our plane.
Iowa would need about probably a 30 team league to make the super conference if it happened. The longer it goes the less chance they have. Iowa is sliding in population and other teams are establishing themselves when they jump to P5 and potential adds in larger or growing states. Teams like Kentucky improving their football (along with Duke and Kansas) are the worst possible thing for iowa. While football is first, MBB still has a little money to it for the top teams. Do you take a basketball powerhouse like Kentucky who has become competitive in football and wouldn’t probably be as ticked off as others if they weren’t winning in football?
 
Iowa would need about probably a 30 team league to make the super conference if it happened. The longer it goes the less chance they have. Iowa is sliding in population and other teams are establishing themselves when they jump to P5 and potential adds in larger or growing states. Teams like Kentucky improving their football (along with Duke and Kansas) are the worst possible thing for iowa. While football is first, MBB still has a little money to it for the top teams. Do you take a basketball powerhouse like Kentucky who has become competitive in football and wouldn’t probably be as ticked off as others if they weren’t winning in football?
Iowa's been growing, but it's not growing enough to be a big market (and may very likely lose population in the next census as a result of current events).

The Hawks just aren't a big time national brand. They're respected, but they don't have a following outside a smaller population state that they share with another school.

I think they should do a blue bloods only league and let the rest of us have our own thing.

Blue Blood East:
Georgia
Clemson
Ohio State
Michigan
Pedo State
Florida
Florida State
Tennessee

Blue Blood West:
Notre Dame
Bama
Texas
OU
USC
A&M
LSU
Nebraska or UCLA (?)
 
It isn't about desperation, it is all about greed. Texas is the richest AD in the land and they left for more money. OU and USC weren't hurting either. The schools that have changed conferences in this whole thing aren't desperate, they are schools who are always going to have a seat at the table. They are chasing more dollars simply because they can. And for as much as the B1G is making, there is a way the big dogs can make even more. The league is only stable for as long as the big dogs are content leaving that extra on the table, no different from the other leagues.




I have been saying since OuT that the superleague rapture is coming. Listen to the below and understand why, better than I can explain it.

And the objection "someone has to lose" is irrelevant because its TV driving it for high-viewer matchups, it has nothing to do with who wins or loses. One game with 6M viewers is worth a heck of a lot more than 12 games with 0.5M viewers.

Its just a matter of time. ISU will be 2nd tier, and it might be fun enough, honestly. We dont really compete with Bama and Ohio St anyway. The biggest downside is that Iowa is probably even money to make the cut; depends how big it is. I think 24 is the number.


He, and I’m sure people driving this, are still talking about college football as if you can chop more than half the P6 out and all the G5 out of a league and viewership remains static. That fans of all these other teams watch Michigan and Florida now, so they’ll continue to and the numbers will be huge, because those big matchups are huge now.

Despite the money, college football is not gaining in popularity. Viewership and attendance are not growing. The media companies are not raking in big profits off these deals.

So thinking an audience that already seems maxed out are going to jump on board with a new super league team, or have enough interest to follow a league completely separate from their favorite teams is a massive assumption.

I don’t think the big media companies truly understand college football that well. They see the NFL and CFB ratings and keep dumping marketing and cash into these other leagues and just keep failing fantastically.

And the idea that it doesn’t matter that some of these big names will lose doesn’t matter is idiotic. These big matchups draw huge numbers because they are almost always between teams with good records in conference chases. In the few seasons when the big teams are having bad seasons, their ratings take a complete dump. Michigan-Florida would draw a huge number because it’s likely one or both have a winning record beating up on the bottom and f their conference. History says without exception that a week 9 game with 3-5 Michigan vs 3-5 Florida will not draw huge viewership. It 100% matters and always has.
 
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Iowa's been growing, but it's not growing enough to be a big market (and may very likely lose population in the next census as a result of current events).

The Hawks just aren't a big time national brand. They're respected, but they don't have a following outside a smaller population state that they share with another school.

I think they should do a blue bloods only league and let the rest of us have our own thing.

Blue Blood East:
Georgia
Clemson
Ohio State
Michigan
Pedo State
Florida
Florida State
Tennessee

Blue Blood West:
Notre Dame
Bama
Texas
OU
USC
A&M
LSU
Nebraska or UCLA (?)
If the super league of 24 happened I jotted down these as first in line and the fringers.

ND
USC
UCLA
OU
Washington
Oregon
Texas
Okie
A mini surprise team like TCU if they make another championship or so,
Clemson
FSU
NC
Miami
Bama
A&M
Tenn
Auburn
Florida
Ga
LSU
Mich
PSU
Ohio State

That leaves two openings for fringe teams:

Nebraska, Maryland, Wisconsin, Virginia, VT, Duke, Pitt, Kentucky, Mizzou, Arkansas, Iowa.

Just a quick throw together that I had. Not sure what current events you are thinking (I don't watch the news much) and if it's politics, I won't go there as I'm tired of the everything is politics stuff, but will say I think the states biggest issue is the same thing that ISU has as issue with. Iowa is full of very cheap individuals. They don't donate anything in comparison. They think $20 is a solid donation, whereas most others will throw a C-note as a pocket change type donation.
 
Iowa would need about probably a 30 team league to make the super conference if it happened. The longer it goes the less chance they have. Iowa is sliding in population and other teams are establishing themselves when they jump to P5 and potential adds in larger or growing states. Teams like Kentucky improving their football (along with Duke and Kansas) are the worst possible thing for iowa. While football is first, MBB still has a little money to it for the top teams. Do you take a basketball powerhouse like Kentucky who has become competitive in football and wouldn’t probably be as ticked off as others if they weren’t winning in football?

One thing that will help them is B1G vs SEC balance. SEC has at least 9 quality brands that will for sure make a SuperLeague (Bama, GA, LSU, FL, OU, UT, Tenn, Auburn, A&M). B1G only has 5 for sure (OSU, UM, PSU, USC, UCLA), but has about 4 more that are close (Wisky, Nebby, Iowa, Mich St).

One thing that will hurt them is Nebby and Wisky are in front of them in line, and does a SuperLeague really want 3 teams in 3 small population states? Another thing that might hurt is if UO and UW are in the B1G when this happens, then the balance argument above is less of a thing.

I think 20 teams, Iowa does NOT make the cut. 24 teams, its 50/50. 30-32 teams, they are in for sure. They have a strong brand nationally (see link), regardless of all the other things.

Branding
This is 2 years old, but his criteria seem pretty decent to me.
 
If the super league of 24 happened I jotted down these as first in line and the fringers.

ND
USC
UCLA
OU
Washington
Oregon
Texas
Okie
A mini surprise team like TCU if they make another championship or so,
Clemson
FSU
NC
Miami
Bama
A&M
Tenn
Auburn
Florida
Ga
LSU
Mich
PSU
Ohio State

That leaves two openings for fringe teams:

Nebraska, Maryland, Wisconsin, Virginia, VT, Duke, Pitt, Kentucky, Mizzou, Arkansas, Iowa.

Just a quick throw together that I had. Not sure what current events you are thinking (I don't watch the news much) and if it's politics, I won't go there as I'm tired of the everything is politics stuff, but will say I think the states biggest issue is the same thing that ISU has as issue with. Iowa is full of very cheap individuals. They don't donate anything in comparison. They think $20 is a solid donation, whereas most others will throw a C-note as a pocket change type donation.

Nebraska and Arkansas in my opinion. Big money donors.
 

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