Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)
- Thread starter ISUcyclones11
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Doesnt really mater the PAC is on death row. Teams either leave or become a Better MnT west conference, good luck.
The thing with the escalator is it is new content in a new media window. So the value of the teams dont necessarily have to be above the average value of the B12 to increase the pay.
What needs to happen is enough content in the new window to justify another media partner and/or a substantial increase in content in the new window for the current partners.
Will it be a huge increase? probably not, especially when divided by all members. My feeling is it could be in the 5M per team range for the right teams. I think with the escalator triggered we could see in the ballpark of 35-40M instead of about 32M. But that is really just a guess. But 35 would be the low end, 40 on the high.
The Big Ten knew if they took all 4 (and maybe even Stanford and Cal) in 2022 it would have crumbled the conference which they didn''t want at the time. The Big 12 was not at a point to take the 4 corners schools yet since the media deal wasn't done yet.
Now that the Big 12 has it's deal, Big Ten and Big 12 can go in and each get the schools they want which would dissolve the Pac 12 with shared blame. It sucks for the remaining Pac 12 but I have little sympathy when they nearly crumbled the Big 12 not once but twice.
If you know what's good for you and your name isn't Michigan or Ohio State, you won't let that happen for more than a couple years. It is REALLY bad precedent and you probably don't want to find yourself on that slippery slope.
I know there are at least 4 schools in the big ten that would currently agree to it. OSU, Mich, PSU and USC with no question. The purdues, NW, and Iowas need to vote no for their own security. Once you open the unequal sharing door, the big boys can open it for all down the road.
Totally different thing. Nebraska came in with a reduced rate. It’s not uncommon when adding schools. Only the Big12 has ever made it a thing and that ended horribly
You asked about devaluing conference members for the life of a media deal. Not the same thing.
The life of the media deal is 7 years. Nebraska had to wait 6
Edit* pretty sure it was 6. Again as long as it’s applying to new schools that’s a totally different animal
That’s common, but word is that they would drag down the average if added, so would the other schools agree to have a worse contract in 6 years or whatever, to added them?
That was kind of my point. Would they agree from the outset to take a permanent reduced rate just for the security? I legit don’t know if that would even be offered but I agree the reason they aren’t already in the big ten is becuase the math doesn’t add up. Not sure what would change in 7 years to magically make up that number unless they just crushed the ratings.
So I've always seen escalators described as increasing the payout at the same per school rate already being paid. Any increase would take new negotiations and any time slots added would certainly be considered tier 3 as there aren't premiere slots available. It isn't like the PAC has a TV package that would go away and save networks money to offset the increases.
But the big thing is that even if the TV deals would be the same per school, the other income would be distributed to more schools. So the CFP payouts, bowl tie-ins, NCAA BB payments, marketing deals all get divided by more teams. So even if the TV deals escalate, that doesn't guarantee that the total distribution remains the same.
And that was my point that if 2 teams agree to a permanent one, what keeps the big guys from telling the lower values schools, hey you are worth less than those two so you should be happy with their amount. Slowly setting up tiers.
It was 6 years for Nebby, and I'm pretty sure the same for Rutgers and Maryland.
Because the only schools that try that are in failing conferences to catch up to others. Not the richest conference in the country. I get this board has an obsession with this idea but that just not a concern.
Wasn't there some sort of deal where the conference fronted the school the buyout money and that was a reason they got less distribution?
And you said your deep sources said the LA schools were not an option.
No way the B1G goes to permanent unequal distributions, just makes zero sense. That model has obviously been horrible for conferences that did it, and the B1G is the richest and most stable conference in the country by not doing it.
Yeah I think the B1G floated Maryland a loan to get out, or something? But I don't think that was the reason for the reduced share, pretty sure the reduced share which gradually increases every year for new members was just standard procedure for them, Nebby, Rutgers.