Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[ForbinsAscynt]

I think UW will have the biggest reason to want to jump if the tv revenue is 15-20% below Big 12. Oregon has Nike to make up some of that lost revenue. UW will have to lean on donors in a time where more and more donor money is needed to elsewhere.

My prediction- PAC gets a 6 year deal 5% below Big 12 and adds SDSU and SMU

 

[isucy86]

I guarantee the vast majority of Pac12 fans already have an Amazon prime account so there will be zero add on price for most of them. I have absolutely zero stats to back that up but I’m going with it anyways

Now tier 1 on streaming is a horrific idea to draw eyeballs but it could be used as a stop gap to keep the pac alive until the next round of realignment. They clearly don’t have a good option but this could be the best chance to hold the conference together

Even if it is the "majority" of Pac12 fans, its not seamless access for all. So if 20-30% of Pac12 fans don't have Amazon Prime, that's significant loss of viewers. That's why the Big10 deal is great, the best games are on Fox, NBC & CBS.

You're right streaming of Tier 1 games is problematic because at this point fans will have to work to even take a peak at Pac12 games. Eventually, the tech might change, but not in the next couple years.

The bigger issue I saw over the weekend was Amazon only wanted 1 game and a 2 year deal, with a 2 year option to extend by Amazon. That's tough if ESPN isn't willing to put a 3-4 games on it's linear channels. Obviously, ESPN would be more than willing to put Pac12 football games on ESPN+ and Tier3 at a low price.

 

[isucy86]

I think UW will have the biggest reason to want to jump if the tv revenue is 15-20% below Big 12. Oregon has Nike to make up some of that lost revenue. UW will have to lean on donors in a time where more and more donor money is needed to elsewhere.

My prediction- PAC gets a 6 year deal 5% below Big 12 and adds SDSU and SMU

At a 5% discount to Big12 that would be $30M annually for the Pac12. I think the Pac12 would take $25M and hope they can make up money for Oregon, Washington and maybe other schools with the big bump in CFB Playoff money.

 

[2speedy1]

Even if it is the "majority" of Pac12 fans, its not seamless access for all. So if 20-30% of Pac12 fans don't have Amazon Prime, that's significant loss of viewers. That's why the Big10 deal is great, the best games are on Fox, NBC & CBS.

You're right streaming of Tier 1 games is problematic because at this point fans will have to work to even take a peak at Pac12 games. Eventually, the tech might change, but not in the next couple years.

The bigger issue I saw over the weekend was Amazon only wanted 1 game and a 2 year deal, with a 2 year option to extend by Amazon. That's tough if ESPN isn't willing to put a 3-4 games on it's linear channels. Obviously, ESPN would be more than willing to put Pac12 football games on ESPN+ and Tier3 at a low price.

I also think that could be a problem being a 2 year deal while ESPN is talking a 5 year deal. What happens is Amazon in year 2 decides it is not working, and not worth it, what if they decide to go a different route after 2 years? Then what?

As we have seen these deals take months if not a year to get worked out. So having a 2 year option means they could get short notice that Amazon is not extending. Then they would have to scramble to get a new partner. As it appears there are not a lot jumping at the chance to grab them now, what happens if they lose Amazon less than half way through the ESPN deal? Not ideal I would think. I would think you want your entire media package to be together on the same timeline, otherwise it could get complicated and be even more problematic in the future.

If they end up with that deal one could see a scenario where in a couple years they have no partner for their Tier 1 or are forced to take a deal at a huge discount just to get one. I would think this would be a really big red flag for the schools in the conference. Especially when it is said ESPN is wanting a GoR for the length of their contract.

 

[BCClone]

This

This is why I want no more than 4. Pitt, Lousiville, VT, Miami/NC state/GT would add more value than adding 6 PAC teams

Why I want 2.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

At a 5% discount to Big12 that would be $30M annually for the Pac12. I think the Pac12 would take $25M and hope they can make up money for Oregon, Washington and maybe other schools with the big bump in CFB Playoff money.

Ok bizarre idea/thought experiment but what if Oregon and Washington don’t care about only making $25 mil? Oregons AD has been funded by knight for years. UW has quite a bit of money, a nice endowment fund and doesn’t crazy care about sports. Cal and Stanford also don’t need the money. Cal because they don’t care and Stanford because, well it’s Stanford. Add in the state’s who have zero options and you really have to only convince the remaining 4.

Colorado would be forced to go back to the conference it left, can’t be that exciting, also hasn’t be relevant in athletics and I don’t see 2 years of coach prime changing that.

Utah needs the money to continue to establish their program but also really doesn’t want to be back with BYU

That leaves the two Arizona schools.
I can see zona wanting to play basketball in the best conference (currently), ASU needs the money although somehow their athletics are trash. Still have no idea how that is possible but it is. They also seem the most publicly unhappy with the big 12.

If the pac can somehow arrange a deal that the zona schools can live with I see the PAC living. If such a deal exists I have no idea but otherwise I just can’t see a way out for the pac

 

[isucy86]

I also think that could be a problem being a 2 year deal while ESPN is talking a 5 year deal. What happens is Amazon in year 2 decides it is not working, and not worth it, what if they decide to go a different route after 2 years? Then what?

As we have seen these deals take months if not a year to get worked out. So having a 2 year option means they could get short notice that Amazon is not extending. Then they would have to scramble to get a new partner. As it appears there are not a lot jumping at the chance to grab them now, what happens if they lose Amazon less than half way through the ESPN deal? Not ideal I would think. I would think you want your entire media package to be together on the same timeline, otherwise it could get complicated and be even more problematic in the future.

If they end up with that deal one could see a scenario where in a couple years they have no partner for their Tier 1 or are forced to take a deal at a huge discount just to get one. I would think this would be a really big red flag for the schools in the conference. Especially when it is said ESPN is wanting a GoR for the length of their contract.

Yea 2 years is not much security. It's interesting that Amazon's first 2 year's would also be the first 2 year's of the new 12 team Playoff that ESPN controls. Not sure why, but does Amazon have a reason to tie it's Pac12 agreement extension to the timing of when the CFB Playoff goes out to market?

 

[exCyDing]

Ok bizarre idea/thought experiment but what if Oregon and Washington don’t care about only making $25 mil? Oregons AD has been funded by knight for years. UW has quite a bit of money, a nice endowment fund and doesn’t crazy care about sports. Cal and Stanford also don’t need the money. Cal because they don’t care and Stanford because, well it’s Stanford. Add in the state’s who have zero options and you really have to only convince the remaining 4.

Colorado would be forced to go back to the conference it left, can’t be that exciting, also hasn’t be relevant in athletics and I don’t see 2 years of coach prime changing that.

Utah needs the money to continue to establish their program but also really doesn’t want to be back with BYU

That leaves the two Arizona schools.
I can see zona wanting to play basketball in the best conference (currently), ASU needs the money although somehow their athletics are trash. Still have no idea how that is possible but it is. They also seem the most publicly unhappy with the big 12.

If the pac can somehow arrange a deal that the zona schools can live with I see the PAC living. If such a deal exists I have no idea but otherwise I just can’t see a way out for the pac

I think you're mostly spot on. UW has a fan strong base. They're not deranged, but strong. WAOR might be willing to let it ride for a little less money in the PAC if they think they have a shot at the B10 in 2029.

Sometimes I wonder how much Utah's love for the PAC is based on having a P5 membership while BYU didn't. I think they'd figure out a way to get over their feelings if they were in a sub-P4 conference and they had a option to jump even if BYU was already there.

CO might be able to pull of pretending the whole PAC thing was just a mass delusion their fanbase had. It could work.

The AZ schools will probably be the key that's easiest to turn. Unless the PAC can pull a rabbit out of their ass and get close to the B12, I just don't see how staying put is a better choice for the short, medium or long term. Best case scenario, WAOR never gets the B10/SEC call and the PAC sticks together at 10 with a series of crappy deals 2-3 steps behind the other P5 conferences. If/when that call comes, those media deals are just going to get worse.

 

[isucy86]

Ok bizarre idea/thought experiment but what if Oregon and Washington don’t care about only making $25 mil? Oregons AD has been funded by knight for years. UW has quite a bit of money, a nice endowment fund and doesn’t crazy care about sports. Cal and Stanford also don’t need the money. Cal because they don’t care and Stanford because, well it’s Stanford. Add in the state’s who have zero options and you really have to only convince the remaining 4.

Colorado would be forced to go back to the conference it left, can’t be that exciting, also hasn’t be relevant in athletics and I don’t see 2 years of coach prime changing that.

Utah needs the money to continue to establish their program but also really doesn’t want to be back with BYU

That leaves the two Arizona schools.
I can see zona wanting to play basketball in the best conference (currently), ASU needs the money although somehow their athletics are trash. Still have no idea how that is possible but it is. They also seem the most publicly unhappy with the big 12.

If the pac can somehow arrange a deal that the zona schools can live with I see the PAC living. If such a deal exists I have no idea but otherwise I just can’t see a way out for the pac

The CFB Playoff money could be the cushion the Pac12 needs to provide a lifeline for the conference and retain schools like Oregon, Washington, etc. In the first 2 years, a 12 team Pac12 will receive around $260M annually. The members will decide how to distribute that money. They could:

1. Split around $22M evenly to each schools.
2. Award current Pac12 schools a bigger split than new members.
3. Go with example 1 or 2 plus give any Pac12 playoff teams a big bonus

Using the later example. Today, with the 4 team playoff structure, each Pac12 school receives around 6.5M annually in Playoff revenue. With the 12 team Playoff they could distribute let's say $15M to the 12 schools and hold back $80M to distribute to Pac12 Playoff teams. With the idea if a Pac12 team reaches the Semis, maybe they can earn a $30M bonus.

The $30M figure is used a lot in the media for the difference between what Big10 & SEC schools will make vs. Big12/ACC & Pac12. The Big10 & SEC could award it's Playoff Teams a bonus, but I would think if Pac12's elite football programs can close the gap to the majority of Big10/SEC, they would be happy.

The wrench in that idea is after the ESPN extension ends and CFB Playoff money distribution is variable based entirely on number of schools a conference has in the 12 team playoff. If that happens, I fell like we will have reached professional sports. As conferences/schools will pay players big dollars to ensure the conference and its schools get a big chunk of the $2B Playoff money.

 

[WhoISthis]

I guarantee the vast majority of Pac12 fans already have an Amazon prime account so there will be zero add on price for most of them. I have absolutely zero stats to back that up but I’m going with it anyways

Now tier 1 on streaming is a horrific idea to draw eyeballs but it could be used as a stop gap to keep the pac alive until the next round of realignment. They clearly don’t have a good option but this could be the best chance to hold the conference together

Agree on the stop gap. From PAC HQ perspective, it’s existential, and you’re selling that they just need to ride through the lower pay and lower exposure for only 1 round. You sell that by the time the next deal round comes, tech will have changed so that streaming on a subscription will be little different than changing the channel

If you’re a BIG hopeful, there’s merit to taking less money and banking on getting in the limited linear slots, while being in the easiest conference to win. CFP contention and participation is the best exposure imo.

It’s the AZ types that take on a risk to delaying their move. They’ll be making less, likely limited exposure, and never again be in so much control of locking in a spot in what would become the 3rd conference

 

[2speedy1]

The CFB Playoff money could be the cushion the Pac12 needs to provide a lifeline for the conference and retain schools like Oregon, Washington, etc. In the first 2 years, a 12 team Pac12 will receive around $260M annually. The members will decide how to distribute that money. They could:

1. Split around $22M evenly to each schools.
2. Award current Pac12 schools a bigger split than new members.
3. Go with example 1 or 2 plus give any Pac12 playoff teams a big bonus

Using the later example. Today, with the 4 team playoff structure, each Pac12 school receives around 6.5M annually in Playoff revenue. With the 12 team Playoff they could distribute let's say $15M to the 12 schools and hold back $80M to distribute to Pac12 Playoff teams. With the idea if a Pac12 team reaches the Semis, maybe they can earn a $30M bonus.

The $30M figure is used a lot in the media for the difference between what Big10 & SEC schools will make vs. Big12/ACC & Pac12. The Big10 & SEC could award it's Playoff Teams a bonus, but I would think if Pac12's elite football programs can close the gap to the majority of Big10/SEC, they would be happy.

The wrench in that idea is after the ESPN extension ends and CFB Playoff money distribution is variable based entirely on number of schools a conference has in the 12 team playoff. If that happens, I fell like we will have reached professional sports. As conferences/schools will pay players big dollars to ensure the conference and its schools get a big chunk of the $2B Playoff money.

Could you please share a link where you are hearing this $22M per school plan? I have searched and searched and I find nothing like that except that they agreed to make the payouts more even for '24 and '25, but nothing is agreed beyond that, and no one is actually reporting the actual deal for '24 and '25.

This is everything I have found:

How College Football Playoff expansion will affect realignment, job security and the future of the sport

Now that expansion is in place, here's how the fallout will impact college football

www.cbssports.com

Going forward, here's one educated guess on the future distribution assuming a doubling of the annual revenue brought in by the CFP from $600 million (four teams) to $1.2 billion per year (12):

• SEC and Big Ten combine to get half the total, $600 million ($300 million each). That's an additional $16.7 million per year for each of those leagues' schools.
• ACC, Big 12 and Pac-12 (depending on membership) split 30% of the pot, $360 million ($120 million each). That's approximately $10 million more per year for those schools. Another consideration: Perhaps the ACC, given the strength of some of its programs, sits on a tier of its own earning a sum between the Power Two and the Big 12 and Pac-12.
• Group of Five conferences split the remaining 20% of the pot, $240 million ($48 million each). That's an additional $3.9 million per year for each school in the AAC, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West and Sun Belt.

These projections do not include deductions for revenue distribution to FBS independents, FCS and NCAA Divisions II and III.

Everything you need to know about College Football Playoff expansion

The 12-team College Football Playoff begins in 2024. Here's everything you need to know about the new format and when games will occur.

247sports.com

The CFP Board of Managers agreed on a new revenue distribution model that will provide payouts that are expected to be more even per Power Five school in 2024 and 2025. The distribution model currently in place provides nearly equal payouts to each Power 5 conference, which then distributes that money to its members. That meant payout distribution was uneven for leagues with 16 teams (Big Ten) compared to those with 10 (Big 12). Yes, a program like Alabama was being paid less than, say, Iowa State. That will not be the case in 2024 and 2025 with the new model.

How Much Money Can An Expanded College Football Playoff Generate?

AthleticDirectorU and Navigate present financial projections for an expanded 12-team College Football Playoff (CFP).

athleticdirectoru.com

College Football Playoff Revenue Distribution

College Football Playoff Revenue Distribution

collegefootballplayoff.com

 

[Cloneon]

At a 5% discount to Big12 that would be $30M annually for the Pac12. I think the Pac12 would take $25M and hope they can make up money for Oregon, Washington and maybe other schools with the big bump in CFB Playoff money.

The 'bump' is for everyone, so the delta still isn't significant enough to make a difference.

 

[Cloneon]

The CFB Playoff money could be the cushion the Pac12 needs to provide a lifeline for the conference and retain schools like Oregon, Washington, etc. In the first 2 years, a 12 team Pac12 will receive around $260M annually. The members will decide how to distribute that money. They could:

1. Split around $22M evenly to each schools.
2. Award current Pac12 schools a bigger split than new members.
3. Go with example 1 or 2 plus give any Pac12 playoff teams a big bonus

Using the later example. Today, with the 4 team playoff structure, each Pac12 school receives around 6.5M annually in Playoff revenue. With the 12 team Playoff they could distribute let's say $15M to the 12 schools and hold back $80M to distribute to Pac12 Playoff teams. With the idea if a Pac12 team reaches the Semis, maybe they can earn a $30M bonus.

The $30M figure is used a lot in the media for the difference between what Big10 & SEC schools will make vs. Big12/ACC & Pac12. The Big10 & SEC could award it's Playoff Teams a bonus, but I would think if Pac12's elite football programs can close the gap to the majority of Big10/SEC, they would be happy.

The wrench in that idea is after the ESPN extension ends and CFB Playoff money distribution is variable based entirely on number of schools a conference has in the 12 team playoff. If that happens, I fell like we will have reached professional sports. As conferences/schools will pay players big dollars to ensure the conference and its schools get a big chunk of the $2B Playoff money.

What you're describing seems to tip the scale in favor of the conference elite. If I were one of the other guys, there's no way I go with uneven distribution. That said, I suppose it all comes out in the wash when the playoff picture is actually ironed out.

 

[isucy86]

The 'bump' is for everyone, so the delta still isn't significant enough to make a difference.

The bump is for every P5 school. Playoff money is distributed directly to the conferences and the conference will distribute based on the rules it's member schools establish.

If the Big10 and SEC take my option 1 and distribute money evenly, that is $22M of playoff money to Michigan, OSU, Iowa, etc.

But if the Pac12 gives every school $15M and then splits it's $80M Playoff pool money to Pac12 teams in the Playoff. If the Pac12 was lucky enough to get 3 teams in the CFB playoff, they could give:

• Oregon $35M for getting to the semi
• SDSU $25M for making the quarter
• Utah $15M for making round 1.

The $5M left over could be retained by the conference or distributed back to each conference school.

So if Oregon received $50M in playoff money ($15 + $35), it would earn $28M more in playoff money than Ohio State, Georgia, etc if the Big10/SEC split monies evenly. And even if the Big10/SEC also give their playoff teams a bonus, in this scenario Oregon & SDSU will have significantly closed the gap with the dozen or so Big10 teams that didn't go to the playoffs.

Pac12 schools could be more willing to adopt such a large bonus pool because if they lose ANY schools to the Big10, Big12 or ACC- the Pac12 becomes a G5 level conference.

 

[AuH2O]

The CFB Playoff money could be the cushion the Pac12 needs to provide a lifeline for the conference and retain schools like Oregon, Washington, etc. In the first 2 years, a 12 team Pac12 will receive around $260M annually. The members will decide how to distribute that money. They could:

1. Split around $22M evenly to each schools.
2. Award current Pac12 schools a bigger split than new members.
3. Go with example 1 or 2 plus give any Pac12 playoff teams a big bonus

Using the later example. Today, with the 4 team playoff structure, each Pac12 school receives around 6.5M annually in Playoff revenue. With the 12 team Playoff they could distribute let's say $15M to the 12 schools and hold back $80M to distribute to Pac12 Playoff teams. With the idea if a Pac12 team reaches the Semis, maybe they can earn a $30M bonus.

The $30M figure is used a lot in the media for the difference between what Big10 & SEC schools will make vs. Big12/ACC & Pac12. The Big10 & SEC could award it's Playoff Teams a bonus, but I would think if Pac12's elite football programs can close the gap to the majority of Big10/SEC, they would be happy.

The wrench in that idea is after the ESPN extension ends and CFB Playoff money distribution is variable based entirely on number of schools a conference has in the 12 team playoff. If that happens, I fell like we will have reached professional sports. As conferences/schools will pay players big dollars to ensure the conference and its schools get a big chunk of the $2B Playoff money.

The problem for the PAC is there’s probably nothing the other members can do to keep anyone from jumping to the Big 10. And any uneven revenue distribution that would accomplish that would make the Big 12 look more attractive for the 4 corners. If you are AZ or ASU the potential combination of being in the poorest P6 conference as it is, handing over more of your money to pacify Oregon and UW for two years and maybe losing visibility with your media partner doesn’t sound good at all.

 

[Die4Cy]

SEC and B1G schools earn so much from their media deals already being linear OTA and cable. At some point there aren't any adds for those leagues because the incremental value isn't there. We know already that streaming's value isn't comparable. Now, maybe they are making so much that they can all afford a moderate reduction in payout to bring others along, but I'm not sure it works like that.

 

[isucy86]

The problem for the PAC is there’s probably nothing the other members can do to keep anyone from jumping to the Big 10. And any uneven revenue distribution that would accomplish that would make the Big 12 look more attractive for the 4 corners. If you are AZ or ASU the potential combination of being in the poorest P6 conference as it is, handing over more of your money to pacify Oregon and UW for two years and maybe losing visibility with your media partner doesn’t sound good at all.

You are right about the Pac12 being able to keep schools from going to Big10 or SEC.

But from all indications the current threat to the Pac12's survival is the Big12. So it is critical for the Pac12 to keep Oregon, Washington, Utah, Arizona State, Arizona and Colorado in the fold.

The Pac12 could skim that $80M of playoff money and not have it be performance based, but based on brand value. Let's say give Oregon/Washington $25M each and Utah/ASU $15M each.

What options to OSU, WSU, Cal and Stanford have?

Arizona & Colorado would likely be mad, but then the question becomes - would the Big12 add just those two? Not sure either bring the $31.7M per school the Big12 currently makes.

I realize in some cases I am throwing crap at the wall. But these are desperate times for the Pac12. I keep hearing and reading Pac10 schools would much rather prefer sticking together over the next 5-6 years than join the Big12. If that's the case, they will need to get creative.

 

[isucy86]

Could you please share a link where you are hearing this $22M per school plan? I have searched and searched and I find nothing like that except that they agreed to make the payouts more even for '24 and '25, but nothing is agreed beyond that, and no one is actually reporting the actual deal for '24 and '25.

This is everything I have found:

How College Football Playoff expansion will affect realignment, job security and the future of the sport

Now that expansion is in place, here's how the fallout will impact college football

www.cbssports.com

Going forward, here's one educated guess on the future distribution assuming a doubling of the annual revenue brought in by the CFP from $600 million (four teams) to $1.2 billion per year (12):

• SEC and Big Ten combine to get half the total, $600 million ($300 million each). That's an additional $16.7 million per year for each of those leagues' schools.
• ACC, Big 12 and Pac-12 (depending on membership) split 30% of the pot, $360 million ($120 million each). That's approximately $10 million more per year for those schools. Another consideration: Perhaps the ACC, given the strength of some of its programs, sits on a tier of its own earning a sum between the Power Two and the Big 12 and Pac-12.
• Group of Five conferences split the remaining 20% of the pot, $240 million ($48 million each). That's an additional $3.9 million per year for each school in the AAC, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West and Sun Belt.

These projections do not include deductions for revenue distribution to FBS independents, FCS and NCAA Divisions II and III.

Everything you need to know about College Football Playoff expansion

The 12-team College Football Playoff begins in 2024. Here's everything you need to know about the new format and when games will occur.

247sports.com

The CFP Board of Managers agreed on a new revenue distribution model that will provide payouts that are expected to be more even per Power Five school in 2024 and 2025. The distribution model currently in place provides nearly equal payouts to each Power 5 conference, which then distributes that money to its members. That meant payout distribution was uneven for leagues with 16 teams (Big Ten) compared to those with 10 (Big 12). Yes, a program like Alabama was being paid less than, say, Iowa State. That will not be the case in 2024 and 2025 with the new model.

How Much Money Can An Expanded College Football Playoff Generate?

AthleticDirectorU and Navigate present financial projections for an expanded 12-team College Football Playoff (CFP).

athleticdirectoru.com

College Football Playoff Revenue Distribution

College Football Playoff Revenue Distribution

collegefootballplayoff.com

Just Google CFB Playoff $2 Billion.

So that gives you the pie. Currently the G5 schools get 20%. The P5 gets 80%.

Split $1.6B among 71 P5 schools= $22.5M

 

[Die4Cy]

You are right about the Pac12 being able to keep schools from going to Big10 or SEC.

But from all indications the current threat to the Pac12's survival is the Big12. So it is critical for the Pac12 to keep Oregon, Washington, Utah, Arizona State, Arizona and Colorado in the fold.

The Pac12 could skim that $80M of playoff money and not have it be performance based, but based on brand value. Let's say give Oregon/Washington $25M each and Utah/ASU $15M each.

What options to OSU, WSU, Cal and Stanford have?

Arizona & Colorado would likely be mad, but then the question becomes - would the Big12 add just those two? Not sure either bring the $31.7M per school the Big12 currently makes.

I realize in some cases I am throwing crap at the wall. But these are desperate times for the Pac12. I keep hearing and reading Pac10 schools would much rather prefer sticking together over the next 5-6 years than join the Big12. If that's the case, they will need to get creative.

The minute this uneven distribution of revenue happens within a conference, the seeds are sown for the end of that conference. The Big 12 is all the proof you need of this. It is a Faustian bargain to go down that road. We gave UT their own private TV network to keep them in the fold and within a handful of years they were negotiating behind everyone's back to get out and take their hot **** someplace else. When you do that, you confirm the worst ideas in the heads of those schools supporters that they are special and the conference would be nothing without them. While it might be true in certain cases, it just feeds a mentality that will rip the conference apart in the end.

The PAC may need to do this to survive this round, but if they do it they won't survive.

 

[Gonzo]

Just Google CFB Playoff $2 Billion.

So that gives you the pie. Currently the G5 schools get 20%. The P5 gets 80%.

Split $1.6B among 71 P5 schools= $22.5M

So I Googled "CFB Playoff $2 Billion", none of the articles that came up said anything about splitting that evenly among 71 P5 schools or conferences the way it's been done with the existing model. The two articles below made specific mention that it's unknown how revenue would be split in the new model.

You're assuming that the new model will distribute the massive new revenue equally when there doesn't seem to be any indicators out there that that will be the case.

CFP expansion could increase annual revenue to $2 billion

A new College Football Playoff with triple the number of teams involved could bring in three times as much money to the conferences and schools that share the wealth.

apnews.com

"How revenue would be distributed in a new model was not part of the detailed proposal the CFP unveiled Thursday. The 12-team model is at least three steps away from final approval from the university presidents and chancellors who oversee the CFP."

Possible CFP expansion could increase revenue to more than $2 billion

It's unknown how revenue from an expanded CFP would be divided, so it's hard to estimate how much more money conferences - and schools - would get.

www.usatoday.com

"Because of the many unknowns in how revenue from an expanded CFP would be divided, it is difficult to estimate how much more money the participating conferences – and, thus, their respective schools — would end up with."