Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[isucy86]

Sorry, no. Why add 3-4 schools to keep your per-school the same when you could just add 2 and then have more money? That said, I could see the B10 and maybe the SEC each having one scenario where they'd let a school bring a buddy along.

For the B10, that's Notre Dame. Hell, they might let ND name 3 other schools, especially if their choices check other boxes. For example, Stanford would give the B10 another west coast school. Florida St and/or Miami would get them into Florida.

If the SEC values a school outside the south east, they might get a buddy. But I'm not sure I see a lot of great choices outside the Southeast. Maybe they let UNC bring along Duke, but that seems unlikely. They'd give ND the same opportunity as the B10, but I can't see the ND administration ever agreeing to join the SEC under any circumstance. They'd sooner shut down their football program.

This isn't about bringing a buddy along. If ND & Stanford or ND, Stanford, Oregon & Washington are accretive to the current 16 team Big 10 average annual revenue/school, why not add 2 or even 4 schools? And the reality could very well be 3 of the schools aren't accretive standalone, but Notre Dame brings value significantly higher (aka Mich, OSU, PSU levels) than the current per school average. aka Rising tide raises all ships.

One benefit of adding "buddy" schools is inventory. When the day comes that streaming/subscriptions are the main vehicle for broadcasting live sports, more inventory is better. More inventory equals more people on your platform.

Another reason why the Big10 (or SEC) could make sense of Oregon, Washington, Virginia, UNC, etc. is where would you rank those schools in standalone media value among the current 16 teams in those respective conferences? Are those schools more valuable than Minnesota, Iowa, Purdue, Indiana, Rutgers, Maryland, Northwestern? If the answer is yes, it could make sense to add those schools. Same goes for the SEC vs. its lower value schools.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

This isn't about bringing a buddy along. If ND & Stanford or ND, Stanford, Oregon & Washington are accretive to the current 16 team Big 10 average annual revenue/school, why not add 2 or even 4 schools? And the reality could very well be 3 of the schools aren't accretive standalone, but Notre Dame brings value significantly higher (aka Mich, OSU, PSU levels) than the current per school average. aka Rising tide raises all ships.

One benefit of adding "buddy" schools is inventory. When the day comes that streaming/subscriptions are the main vehicle for broadcasting live sports, more inventory is better. More inventory equals more people on your platform.

Another reason why the Big10 (or SEC) could make sense of Oregon, Washington, Virginia, UNC, etc. is where would you rank those schools in standalone media value among the current 16 teams in those respective conferences? Are those schools more valuable than Minnesota, Iowa, Purdue, Indiana, Rutgers, Maryland, Northwestern? If the answer is yes, it could make sense to add those schools. Same goes for the SEC vs. its lower value schools.

If Washington and Oregon had value to the big ten, they would be in the big ten already. New schools have to either pay for themselves or bring additional revenue. ND could pick companion to bring along because the big ten wants ND but besides that there isn’t another obv addition outside of the SEC. The presidents really want Virginia and UNC.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

No they won't. All they have to do is put their sports (not football) in any conference they please and that conference will give them 5 football games. The Big 12 would do this in a heartbeat. They could also put everything in the Big East and just load their schedule with 9 P5 teams from all over the country. It's all about $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$.

What conference will they put them in? ND will never align themselves with the Big12 or SEC. The pac might not exist in a year. The big east is struggling and doesn’t have football. Their options once the ACC GOR is up doesn’t look good.

 

[simply1]

I think perception wise the schools that were part of the old SWC and the old Big East have at least the consideration of being P5 caliber and maybe believed they are in a realm somewhere in between G5 and P5. It has not had the feeling that we are elevating school fully from G5 status, with some of the schools that were at least in recent history on the same level as the rest of P5, or were independent at that level.

Most if not all of the teams that were in those positions, that did a decent job of maintaining their programs, have now been taken by other P5s. This is where SMU and Rice come in for the Pac, although obviously they are only valuable to the Pac at this point. Maybe an argument could be made for UConn although they barely became "D1" when the Big East broke up.

It now appears to be more of a full elevation of a G5 school when talking about schools coming Up from the G5, instead of bringing a P5 school back to the fold after losing their former Power conference.

The big 12 knows where it stands, I don't believe the Big 12 will elevate any more G5s in the near future, if ever, unless something extremely unforeseen and major happens. Right now the Big 12 needs P5s to trigger the escalator. I think the Pac will add G5s to survive as a conference, and may be in the end replacing many more defectors. This could happen to the ACC in the future too, but unless there is a huge development there that wont happen until closer to the next round of realignment or so.

Utah is the poster child of taking a g5 and having it work out with a flagship. Directional, we’ll see.

 

[CyCrazy]

What conference will they put them in? ND will never align themselves with the Big12 or SEC. The pac might not exist in a year. The big east is struggling and doesn’t have football. Their options once the ACC GOR is up doesn’t look good.

Stop it, ND is like the Dallas Cowboys, you think any made for profit playoff would leave them out?

 

[FriendlySpartan]

Stop it, ND is like the Dallas Cowboys, you think any made for profit playoff would leave them out?

Of course not, but would the get the autobid or be forced to join a conference. No made for profit playoff would leave them out but at the same time ND wouldn’t leave itself out of a playoff if they were told they had to join a conference.

 

[CyCrazy]

Of course not, but would the get the autobid or be forced to join a conference. No made for profit playoff would leave them out but at the same time ND wouldn’t leave itself out of a playoff if they were told they had to join a conference.

Well of course that would make ND play its hand. I will believe it when I see it.

 

[FLYINGCYCLONE]

I don’t think ND will ever have a hard time getting games. I agree with the comment about the B12 stepping up , but I don’t think that will happen. I think if ND felt that was happening, phone calls would happen, and Congress would stick their nose in college football. Nobody wants that to happen. When the ACC
goes after a new tv contract, as people have said, it will be a feeding frenzy. Should be fun.

 

[CyCrazy]

Also if ND are not idiots they will join the B10.

 

[RustShack]

I don’t think ND will ever have a hard time getting games. I agree with the comment about the B12 stepping up , but I don’t think that will happen. I think if ND felt that was happening, phone calls would happen, and Congress would stick their nose in college football. Nobody wants that to happen. When the ACC
goes after a new tv contract, as people have said, it will be a feeding frenzy. Should be fun.

They partially joined the ACC because it was getting harder to schedule games. It’s not as easy to schedule games during conference season as it used to be, and it will probably be even harder if the PAC and ACC get picked apart by Big12, SEC, B1G expansion. Also now NBC is a B1G media partner. ND isn’t staying independent forever, just as long as they can or get sick of not being able to to get a first round bye in the playoffs.

 

[Pope]

Everything is fine…

Wow, this statement reeks of desperation. When you have to issue a joint statement professing to the world how committed you are to each other, then you know you aren't committed.

The question isn't whether more Pac 12 teams will defect, the question is how soon it will happen.

 

[RustShack]

MHVER(?) rumor. I know not reliable but for the sake of slow time chat he claims-

ACC is trying to get ND full time, offering them unequal revenue distribution letting them make more than the others(obviously, and we know the B1G is trying to add them too), as well as add Oregon, Washington, Cal, and Stanford. Which moves the Corner Four to the Big12.

 

[Gonzo]

MHVER(?) rumor. I know not reliable but for the sake of slow time chat he claims-

ACC is trying to get ND full time, offering them unequal revenue distribution letting them make more than the others(obviously, and we know the B1G is trying to add them too), as well as add Oregon, Washington, Cal, and Stanford. Which moves the Corner Four to the Big12.

I've thought a move like this would be the best possible outcome for the ACC since all the USCLA stuff broke and, frankly, is their only hope for survival after their GoR expires. Getting ND would be the dream. Even if they can't lure them, going with an American Coastal Conference (ACC) and getting Washington, Oregon, Cal, Stanford to go along with Clemson, UNC, GT, UVA, FSU, Miami, Duke, etc., would make for a pretty solid conference. Holding off the SEC and B1G from taking some of those top programs though is a different challenge entirely.

 

[Clonehomer]

Of course not, but would the get the autobid or be forced to join a conference. No made for profit playoff would leave them out but at the same time ND wouldn’t leave itself out of a playoff if they were told they had to join a conference.

Only 1/2 the spots are reserved for conference champs under the new rules. And if they're good enough to be eligible for a playoff spot as the Big10 champ, they'd get in as an at large anyway. So in the proposed format, I actually see it being easier to be independent than with the 4 team playoff.

So unless the scheduling becomes a problem, I see them staying independent if the ACC collapses. And as hard as it was to get the SEC to get to 9 conference games, I just don't see them going to 10.

 

[RustShack]

I've thought a move like this would be the best possible outcome for the ACC since all the USCLA stuff broke and, frankly, is their only hope for survival after their GoR expires. Getting ND would be the dream. Even if they can't lure them, going with an American Coastal Conference (ACC) and getting Washington, Oregon, Cal, Stanford to go along with Clemson, UNC, GT, UVA, FSU, Miami, Duke, etc., would make for a pretty solid conference. Holding off the SEC and B1G from taking some of those top programs though is a different challenge entirely.

Still poachable for sure, but the landscape can change in ten years. The Big12 has been the highest paid conference before, heck I think briefly the PAC even was at one point.

 

[CascadeClone]

Everything is fine…

Sounds like the PAC10 is firmly entrenched.

 

[QBEagles]

I think they'll maaaaaybe get to 20.

You nailed it though on your thoughts though. Returns are going to start diminishing with each team added. Not enough people think about that

Yeah, 20 seems like the ceiling for the SEC, and I think they're happy at 16 unless keeping the B1G off their turf is a priority. The median SEC school is going to be in the A&M/Tenn/Auburn range. ND is above that but they're not coming. FSU and Clemson are maybe slight improvements, but the SEC doesn't really need them, they're already in those markets. Everyone else is below that unless you give UNC basketball a ton of weight. Miami and VT pass the "better than Missouri" test, but I don't know if they'll ever be pushed to add them.

The B1G has a few more contenders with their average school not being as good, and having ND/OR/WA as semi-legitimate options. I'm still not seeing them go past 20 though unless the presidents see value on the academic side in adding premier institutions like Stanford/Cal/Virginia/Duke. I'm kind of hoping they do since (with the possible exception of Stanford) they'll lower both their media payouts and on-field performance. My guess is they don't move again unless ND wants in though.

 

[BCClone]

Yeah, 20 seems like the ceiling for the SEC, and I think they're happy at 16 unless keeping the B1G off their turf is a priority. The median SEC school is going to be in the A&M/Tenn/Auburn range. ND is above that but they're not coming. FSU and Clemson are maybe slight improvements, but the SEC doesn't really need them, they're already in those markets. Everyone else is below that unless you give UNC basketball a ton of weight. Miami and VT pass the "better than Missouri" test, but I don't know if they'll ever be pushed to add them.

The B1G has a few more contenders with their average school not being as good, and having ND/OR/WA as semi-legitimate options. I'm still not seeing them go past 20 though unless the presidents see value on the academic side in adding premier institutions like Stanford/Cal/Virginia/Duke. I'm kind of hoping they do since (with the possible exception of Stanford) they'll lower both their media payouts and on-field performance. My guess is they don't move again unless ND wants in though.

The SEC could be a landing spot for UO and UW if they wanted to go, strictly due to having late games available. Although, they already play late ones at times.

 

[Hestia_Abnegation11]

Fox sounds like they're done with the PAC. They're in a real bind.

Podcast here:

 

[PickSix]

Fox sounds like they're done with the PAC. They're in a real bind.

Podcast here:

For those going to give a listen, most of the PAC details are towards the end, but they gassed up Yormark multiple times throughout the pod saying that industry guys are raving about him, and that it's becoming clear that he's outmaneuvered Kliavkoff.