WILLIAMS: Analyzing Iowa State’s NCAA Tournament situation after a big week

[mjhavlo76]

Ohio State never beat us in the first round.

You’re incorrect. In fact, we’ve never beat Ohio State in the big dance. Played them 3 times, lost all contests. 2 1st rounders and 1 2nd.

 

[NWICY]

Take a good look at how 1/2 of the B1G and ACC are doing this season.

It doesn't matter where the Big 12 sits historically.

THIS season, a losing record in the conference can get you in THIS year's tournament.

Why do people seem to hate the prospect of a rag tag group like ISU getting extra basketball?

To be blunt I think there are some people who post here that are disappointed that this team is as good as they are. This team is offensively challenged and some people haven't gotten used to the defensive mindset yet.

I had no idea what this season was going to be after last yrs disaster, but by golly it didn't take long for the people who attend the games to start to cheer for this team. I'm along for the ride and keep hoping for the best, I don't know of one fan that actually had this team making the tourney. I got laughed at for saying they would be above .500. It's been a lot of fun cheering for them though.

 

[Bestaluckcy]

You’re incorrect. In fact, we’ve never beat Ohio State in the big dance. Played the 3 times, lost all contests. 2 1st rounders and 1 2nd.

Would love to try it again this season.

 

[clone52]

The Big12 is the best conference this year, but it's not like the Big12 is historically great that a 6-12 or maybe even a 7-11 team is going to make the tournament. Going 13-0 in the non-con gives ISU a leg up, but


Not ignoring it. Just think when you get a bunch of reps for other Conferences in a room, trying to explain that a 6-12 team in conference play (and 19-12 overall) deserves an NCAA Berth is a tough sell. Especially, when these other P5 reps will be pushing their own teams that are .500 or above in conference and 19+ wins.

Also, if ISU finishes 6-12, in the Big12 Tournament we'll play KU, TT or Baylor in the first round.

IMO the Big12 is the best conference this year, but historically we are no better than Big10 or ACC Conferences in prior years. People like to bring up Orr's Cyclone team that went something like 5-9. But that season we finshed 4th or 5th in an 8 team conference.

HOW MANY TIMES DO PEOPLE HAVE TO REPEAT THEMSELVES. THE COMMITTEE DOES NOT LOOK AT CONFERENCE RECORDS. JEEZUS.

 

[Cyforce]

HOW MANY TIMES DO PEOPLE HAVE TO REPEAT THEMSELVES. THE COMMITTEE DOES NOT LOOK AT CONFERENCE RECORDS. JEEZUS.

Lighten up Francis.

 

[cyclones500]

You’re incorrect. In fact, we’ve never beat Ohio State in the big dance. Played the 3 times, lost all contests. 2 1st rounders and 1 2nd.

You are correct.

1985
Round of 64: (4) Ohio State def (13) Iowa State, 75-64.

2013
Round of 32: (2) Ohio State def (10) Iowa State, 78-75.

2019
Round of 64: (11) Ohio State def (6) Iowa State, 62-59.

 

[Pat]

HOW MANY TIMES DO PEOPLE HAVE TO REPEAT THEMSELVES. THE COMMITTEE DOES NOT LOOK AT CONFERENCE RECORDS. JEEZUS.

And last 5 and last 10 game no longer carry more weight - every game counts equally. The only way conference record could carry weight is if the committee gets cold feet about the potential media firestorm.

 

[clone52]

Lighten up Francis.

Fair

 

[Bigman38]

You are correct.

1985
Round of 64: (4) Ohio State def (13) Iowa State, 75-64.

2013
Round of 32: (2) Ohio State def (10) Iowa State, 78-75.

2019
Round of 64: (11) Ohio State def (6) Iowa State, 62-59.

Thats a weird trivia stat. That 2019 loss is haunting, robbed and that region was up for grabs if they won.

 

[dahliaclone]

I actually don't disagree with Seth on his Iowa State comment. But I also can't believe he has Iowa ranked 24th in his poll...they aren't a top 25 team either...

 

[allfourcy]

Regardless of what we all 'think' it will take to get in, let's just go out and win 2 or 3 more games plus a few in KC ....then the icing on the cake will be we don't have to listen to every guru on pre-tournament shows debate whether we 'should' have gotten in or not. Although, being talked about is good I guess. lol

 

[twincyties]

This entire post is based on one argument - with people on each side. And that is whether or not conference record matters.

If it does not we are in really good shape. That is the thing that’s a blemish on our resume and it’s questionable how big of a blemish that is given the strength of the Big 12. Not overall record, not NET ranking, not totally number of wins, and surely not the number of Quad 1 wins.

Our number of Q1 wins is among the very best in the country. Rest of the teams even close to the bubble are lacking quality wins and/or have bad losses.

 

[Nihawk]

Thats a weird trivia stat. That 2019 loss is haunting, robbed and that region was up for grabs if they won.

2013 loss also very bad. Controversial charge on ISU at end of game.

 

[Stormin]

The Big 12 has 4 teams in the Top 16. Iowa State plays those Top 16 teams twice. So 44% of the Conference Schedule is against Top 16 Teams.

 

[clone52]

The Big 12 has 4 teams in the Top 16. Iowa State plays those Top 16 teams twice. So 44% of the Conference Schedule is against Top 16 Teams.

The bottom is where it's at. You typically have a couple of bottom feeders in the conference, so a 6-12 record would only mean 2 or 3 quality wins. That is not the case this year.

 

[CascadeClone]

2013 loss also very bad. Controversial charge on ISU at end of game.

IIRC Babb hurt his ankle that game and we really missed his defense the last 10 minutes or so.

 

[ISUTex]

Thats a weird trivia stat. That 2019 loss is haunting, robbed and that region was up for grabs if they won.

Prohm was our coach. I was up for grabs for the rest of the teams in that bracket.

 

[gocubs2118]

I actually don't disagree with Seth on his Iowa State comment. But I also can't believe he has Iowa ranked 24th in his poll...they aren't a top 25 team either...

That Bob Stewart guy is an idiot.

 

[CascadeClone]

The Big 12 has 4 teams in the Top 16. Iowa State plays those Top 16 teams twice. So 44% of the Conference Schedule is against Top 16 Teams.

I actually looked at this the other day. If you look at Kenpom ratings, the worst B12 team is WV in the 60s. B1G has SIX teams that bad or worse.

Even if the B1G had a balanced schedule of 26 games, you'd have 12 games (46%) against very bad opponents. To make a comparison to B12, imagine trading your 6 games vs KU, Texas, and Okie St for Rutgers, Maryland, and Minnesota.

And with unbalanced schedule it can be worse. Iowa has 20 conference games, and 10 of them (half their conference schedule) are against the bottom 6 - all of whom are WORSE than the worst team in the B12.

Let me say that again: HALF of Iowa's conference games are against teams WORSE than the worst team in the Big12.


WV 63
NW 68
Rutgers 73
PSU 81
Mary 89
Minn 104
Nebb 184

 

[CyPunch]

The Top 16 reveal on Saturday was really good news for us.

A.) The Big 12 dominated with 4 teams in the Top 16.

B.) The committee is high on Wisconsin and Providence and left Houston out of the top 16. Wisconsin and Providence are the extreme resume>>>predictive metrics teams. Houston has terrific predictive metrics, is #4 in the NET rankings, but has 0 quad 1 wins. We like to see more value being placed on Quad 1 wins and resume quality rather than NET and predictive metrics.