WILLIAMS: Analyzing Iowa State’s NCAA Tournament situation after a big week

Need at least 2 for me to feel 100% safe. 5 of the last 6 would just be tits.

I want to be solid in, would hate for our chance to place in the NCAA to come down to a trip to Dayton
 
I know in my head that the committee says they take the whole season into account, but I have a hard time believing that they would take someone with such a bad conference record.

I don't know that we've been truly on the bubble since I can remember following the tournament. It'll add a bit of excitement to Selection Sunday if we really don't know if we are in!

However, I hope we win 2 more and are solidly in!
 
TCU was 13-0 to start the season in 2015 and did not get a bid at 18 overall wins, that’s why most are saying we need 1 more win and we’re set.

TCU had 2 quad 1 and 2 wins combined (basically). Plus they had a bad loss. Their RPI (no NET back then) was 136. KenPom was 56. Not even close to comparable.

Also only 2 wins against teams who got into the tournament. 3 wins against teams with a winning record.
 
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If it’s true they use net ranking to grade your wins/losses and not the team itself I don’t see how ISU can be lower than a 6 or 7.

If you ignored recency and just looked at quad one wins wouldn’t we be like a 5 seed or better?
 
I know in my head that the committee says they take the whole season into account, but I have a hard time believing that they would take someone with such a bad conference record.

I don't know that we've been truly on the bubble since I can remember following the tournament. It'll add a bit of excitement to Selection Sunday if we really don't know if we are in!

However, I hope we win 2 more and are solidly in!

Is 5-9 really that bad a conference record when 70% of the league was ranked top 28 by AP the weak they started having to play each other?

Not that the committee watches this closely, but if not for one of the most ridiculous missed calls ever we’re 6-8 with a top 5 road win.
 
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4 Big 12 teams seeded in the Top 16. Out of 10 total teams. Every Big 12 team plays home and away games with every other. Even the worst teams in the Big 12 are nothing like the pathetic doormat Nebraska. It matters who you play.
 
I just realized a couple of things regarding WVU.

They haven't won a true road game in the league this season.

Their only win in their last 11 games is against...Iowa State.

They played a night game against KU tonight (and lost). They play at TCU on Monday in a makeup game then have to travel to Ames for a game Wednesday. Three games in five days, two on the road and lots of travel.
If we lose that game we deserve what we get. We won’t.
 
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4 Big 12 teams seeded in the Top 16. Out of 10 total teams. Every Big 12 team plays home and away games with every other. Even the worst teams in the Big 12 are nothing like the pathetic doormat Nebraska. It matters who you play.

And ISU is so far 2-5 vs those (at KU would be nice to have but oh well).. so it's not as if we're completely uncompetitive vs the top end.
 
Johnny's 5-9 team beat #3 seed Missouri to make the semifinals. Doubt they would of made the dance without it.
That is a valid point, I believe back in the eighties victories in the Big 8 Tournament were examined more by the committee, not so much in recent years. Back then, hell 20 wins got you solidly into the tournament—no bones about it!
 
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Is 5-9 really that bad a conference record when 70% of the league was ranked top 28 by AP the weak they started having to play each other?

Not that the committee watches this closely, but if not for one of the most ridiculous missed calls ever we’re 6-8 with a top 5 road win.

No, but it's also hard to tell if the conference was overrated when they all started beating each other up. For example, we benefited a bit from the good teams that we played being short-handed several times.

And I'm not saying we don't deserve to be in. If we win one more, I'll be pissed if we are left out. I'm just saying that we could be one of the more unique situations that anyone has seen in a long time.
 
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I know in my head that the committee says they take the whole season into account, but I have a hard time believing that they would take someone with such a bad conference record.

I don't know that we've been truly on the bubble since I can remember following the tournament. It'll add a bit of excitement to Selection Sunday if we really don't know if we are in!

However, I hope we win 2 more and are solidly in!

I’ve been a strong proponent of this all along. A losing conference record is a negative. A strong negative, that remains to be seen. Obviously, a strong finish may negate that.
 
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I’ve been a strong proponent of this all along. A losing conference record is a negative. A strong negative, that remains to be seen. Obviously, a strong finish may negate that.
Careful, talk like that will get you a mailbox full of negativity.
 
Take care of business the last 2 home games, and we should be setting ourselves up nicely. I would like to avoid the Wednesday 8 vs 9 game in KC if we can.
 
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Careful, talk like that will get you a mailbox full of negativity.
Because you’ve buried your head in the sand on this once everyone pointed out how wrong you are on your assumption about conference record. So one last time conference record does not matter.

The reason it looks like it does is because those teams with that poor of a conference record typically have poor or mediocre at best non-conference records with no good wins.

We are not your typical losing conference record team. And we aren’t just saying this because it’s our team, although their is a bias there for sure. Any team that has our resume (8 Q1 wins alone) is going to be greeted with the same thought by us who are trying to explain this to you.

We got moved up to the best 9 seed in BracketMatrix today and moved into Should Be In on ESPN’s bubble watch. Yeah if we lose out things could get dicey but another win likely gets us at worst the trip to Dayton.
 
When we made it in '92 at 5-9, that's a 36% winning percentage in league. 6-12 now would be 33%, so it's not that much different - the biggest thing is that no one has ever made it at -6 in the league, but it was bound to happen sometime soon with more leagues moving to 18 or 20 conference games. We just might be trendsetters again.
 
Because you’ve buried your head in the sand on this once everyone pointed out how wrong you are on your assumption about conference record. So one last time conference record does not matter.

The reason it looks like it does is because those teams with that poor of a conference record typically have poor or mediocre at best non-conference records with no good wins.

We are not your typical losing conference record team. And we aren’t just saying this because it’s our team, although their is a bias there for sure. Any team that has our resume (8 Q1 wins alone) is going to be greeted with the same thought by us who are trying to explain this to you.

We got moved up to the best 9 seed in BracketMatrix today and moved into Should Be In on ESPN’s bubble watch. Yeah if we lose out things could get dicey but another win likely gets us at worst the trip to Dayton.
It's really more about the insecurity of some on this board (you included) that feel threatened by differing opinions and an have uncontrollable need to lash out.
 
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