WILLIAMS: Analyzing Iowa State’s NCAA Tournament situation after a big week

Still waiting for the last minus 7 to get an at large.

I will show you the last minus 7 to get to the tourney if you show me the last team to be left out with 6 quad 1 wins, no bad losses and 5 wins over tournament teams.
 
Looking at remaining schedules, TCU isn't gonna make the tourney I don't think. Brutal. It's looking pretty likely that the Wednesday game in KC will be WVU vs TCU. That's my guess.
Crazy because TCU is a better team than Iowa. Conner McCaffrey just split the difference
 
Think it’s been posted elsewhere that worst conference record to ever get an at large bid was -4 and it was one of Orr’s teams in the 80s.

I think 7-11 in conference puts us in very safe territory. I think 8-10 - which probably puts us 5th in the conference - gives us a decent seed. Really want to stay off that 8/9 line as not many teams this year scare me once you get past the top 4 or 5.
 
Think it’s been posted elsewhere that worst conference record to ever get an at large bid was -4 and it was one of Orr’s teams in the 80s.

I think 7-11 in conference puts us in very safe territory. I think 8-10 - which probably puts us 5th in the conference - gives us a decent seed. Really want to stay off that 8/9 line as not many teams this year scare me once you get past the top 4 or 5.
Ohio State was -4 the year they beat us in the first round. I think 2 more wins total and we are safely in, 1 more and we might end up in Dayton.
 
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Think it’s been posted elsewhere that worst conference record to ever get an at large bid was -4 and it was one of Orr’s teams in the 80s.

I think 7-11 in conference puts us in very safe territory. I think 8-10 - which probably puts us 5th in the conference - gives us a decent seed. Really want to stay off that 8/9 line as not many teams this year scare me once you get past the top 4 or 5.

I don't want an 8/9 seed either but think that's where we're gonna end up. And if that happens so be it...making the tourney this year is mindboggling (if/when it happens). I won't complain.
 
I am guessing there aren’t too many, if any power conference teams that were 13-0 in non con that end up -7 in conference, esp when playing in what is considered the best conference.

just get at least 2/4 here and head to KC with a bid locked up.
6-12 puts us in the 8/9 game. We lose that we are dead ******* last in the conference. No way that gets us a bid.
 
6-12 puts us in the 8/9 game. We lose that we are dead ******* last in the conference. No way that gets us a bid.
You do realize they don’t tack on the conference tournament results to your conference regular season record right? Has zero significance at all when it comes to that. If we go 6-12, we are 6-12. Doesn’t matter if we win or lose any games in KC. Only thing those results do is add to the overall record.
 
You do realize they don’t tack on the conference tournament results to your conference regular season record right? Has zero significance at all when it comes to that. If we go 6-12, we are 6-12. Doesn’t matter if we win or lose any games in KC. Only thing those results do is add to the overall record.
They absolutely look at how you did in your conference tournament. How many times have we heard we're going to need a win or two in KC to make the dance. Losing the 8/9 game kills our chances. The only reason I called it 6-13 is because the handful of responders to my post continue to spout 1 more win and we're in.
 
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The hoks would be 9th or 10th if they were in the Big 12. I just dont see many conference victories there.
 
They absolutely look at how you did in your conference tournament. How many times have we heard we're going to need a win or two in KC to make the dance. Losing the 8/9 game kills our chances. The only reason I called it 6-13 is because the handful of responders to my post continue to spout 1 more win and we're in.
They look at the conference tournament because it’s a game, often against a decent team. There’s nothing magical about it though or different than any other game(s).
 
You know, I’ve really missed the “CF users wildly overestimating what it takes to get into the tourney” threads. It was one of my favorite traditions for a while, and I didn’t even realize it. This feels good, comfortable, familiar - like a warm blanket. This is how it should be.
 
I just realized a couple of things regarding WVU.

They haven't won a true road game in the league this season.

Their only win in their last 11 games is against...Iowa State.

They played a night game against KU tonight (and lost). They play at TCU on Monday in a makeup game then have to travel to Ames for a game Wednesday. Three games in five days, two on the road and lots of travel.
 
I do think the original write up here by CW is meaningful. If committee doesn’t appear to be giving much weight to NET ranking and instead placing emphasis on quality wins I am really not that worried. It’s going to be really, really hard to leave out a team with one of the most Quad 1 wins in the country that has 20 wins total just because they got beat up in the best top-to-bottom league in the country. We’ve got to handle our business at home and we should be fine. Win @K State too and we’re probably off the 8/9 line.
 
They absolutely look at how you did in your conference tournament. How many times have we heard we're going to need a win or two in KC to make the dance. Losing the 8/9 game kills our chances. The only reason I called it 6-13 is because the handful of responders to my post continue to spout 1 more win and we're in.
What you are saying is not the same thing.

I never said conference tournaments don’t matter although there are so many on here that put WAY too much weight on those games. It’s been shown time and time again unless you win your conference tournament your seed line isn’t really changing that much if at all NOR is a single win or two going to automatically make you go from bubble out to bubble in.

They are games that are added to the resume, but that’s it. Anyone remember our team with Tinsley flaming out completely against lowly Baylor in the first game of the Big 12 Tournament? Yep still got that 2 seed in the Big Dance didn’t we?

What I said (and others have correctly pointed out) is you keep talking about this minus-7 crap if we finish 6-12 and lose game 1 in KC. Not how it works at all and you are just wrong there. We won’t be viewed as 6-13 or minus-7 in conference play because conference tournaments do not count toward conference record.
 
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