Kstate Baylor

[every_yard]

I mean this 1% chance thing isn't actually real at this point. Statistically it might be close to 1%, but in actuality, far less likely:

I'd put the odds generously at-
75% we beat West Virginia
10% Oklahoma or Oklahoma State loses
50% Texas beats Kansas State
99% Texas beats Kansas, but 50% that game doesn't get played.

Ok, so 94.4% chance.

 

[jsb]

Isn't statistically actuality?

But I'm assuming that 1% doesn't take into account the odds of each individual game.

 

[ISUTex]

you two should have supper together, it would be an solid match.

They can't. Covid.

 

[jsb]

Why is it 50% that Texas and KU don’t play. Where are you coming up with this?

COVID. Why will Texas (with a likely fired coach) be motivated to play Kansas? The newspaper guys were already talking about how Texas could probably take a 'Covid' game for Kansas.

Look, I'm mostly playing this up because it is fun, but I find it surprising that you all feel good about our chances.

 

[mred]

I mean this 1% chance thing isn't actually real at this point. Statistically it might be close to 1%, but in actuality, far less likely:

I'd put the odds generously at-
75% we beat West Virginia
10% Oklahoma or Oklahoma State loses
50% Texas beats Kansas State
99% Texas beats Kansas, but 50% that game doesn't get played.

.25 * .90 * .50 * .495 = 5.6% chance of it happening (using your rough probabilities).

 

[cstrunk]

COVID. Why will Texas (with a likely fired coach) be motivated to play Kansas? The newspaper guys were already talking about how Texas could probably take a 'Covid' game for Kansas.

Look, I'm mostly playing this up because it is fun, but I find it surprising that you all feel good about our chances.

What newspaper guys?

 

[Scruff]

I mean this 1% chance thing isn't actually real at this point. Statistically it might be close to 1%, but in actuality, far less likely:

I'd put the odds generously at-
75% we beat West Virginia
10% Oklahoma or Oklahoma State loses
50% Texas beats Kansas State
99% Texas beats Kansas, but 50% that game doesn't get played.

I'm not sure if it will help you, but according to FPI:

Texas 97% chance of beating Kansas
Texas 77% chance of beating K-State
Iowa State 65% chance of beating WVU
TCU 48% chance of beating OSU
Baylor 40% chance of beating OSU
WVU 25% chance of beating OU
Baylor 10% chance of beating OU

 

[BCClone]

They can't. Covid.

Outdoor socially distanced?

 

[mred]

Ok, so 94.4% chance.

.25 * .90 * .50 * .495 = 5.6% chance of it happening (using your rough probabilities).

We successfully checked each other's answers.

 

[cstrunk]

Someone's nut cup is on so tight it's cutting off circulation.

 

[jsb]

What newspaper guys?

Some podcast the Austin newspaper writers put out after the game yesterday.

Again, I'm mostly playing this up for fun. But when you look at the individual things that have to happen individually, it seems very possible.

 

[awd4cy]

COVID. Why will Texas (with a likely fired coach) be motivated to play Kansas? The newspaper guys were already talking about how Texas could probably take a 'Covid' game for Kansas.

Look, I'm mostly playing this up because it is fun, but I find it surprising that you all feel good about our chances.

Texas doesn’t need to be motivated to play this KU team who is every bit as bad as their 0-12 team in 2015. Why do you think Kansas is just going to be amped up for it? They have gotten their asses handed to them every single week this year.

Also, we aren’t the Pac 12. We don’t cancel games over 1 a symptomatic positive covid test.

 

[mikeiastat]

**** Baylor. That is all.

 

[NWICY]

Simple enough time to go beat the Hillbillies next Sat

 

[alarson]

TCU 48% chance of beating OSU
Baylor 40% chance of beating OSU

Which when you combine those odds, its just a bit over 50/50 that OSU wins both of those games.

It is more likely that OSU drops one than Texas loses to KSU.

 

[jsb]

Texas doesn’t need to be motivated to play this KU team who is every bit as bad as their 0-12 team in 2015. Why do you think Kansas is just going to be amped up for it? They have gotten their asses handed to them every single week this year.

Also, we aren’t the Pac 12. We don’t cancel games over 1 a symptomatic positive covid test.

You need to read what I write, I don't think Kansas is going to play Texas.

 

[mred]

Which when you combine those odds, its just a bit over 50/50 that OSU wins both of those games.

It is more likely that OSU drops one than Texas loses to KSU.

Although you have to consider probability of COVID cancellation too. OU and OSU cancellations are just as good as wins for them.

 

[awd4cy]

You need to read what I write, I don't think Kansas is going to play Texas.

Again, you just continue to make baseless predictions.

 

[cstrunk]

Some podcast the Austin newspaper writers put out after the game yesterday.

Again, I'm mostly playing this up for fun. But when you look at the individual things that have to happen individually, it seems very possible.

Fair enough. There's enough crazy in Austin for make it believable. I hear all kinds of rumors from my Longhorn buddy.

 

[jsb]

Although you have to consider probability of COVID cancellation too. OU and OSU cancellations are just as good as wins for them.

What happens if we get the COVID?