Coronavirus Coronavirus: In-Iowa General Discussion (Not Limited)
- Thread starter Jeremy
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Hey T-Bone is my friend. A great bartender and a hard working guy. I understand what you are saying. I think his thoughts were to give people some normalcy on St Paddy’s.
"Invincible" college students is one of my concerns. Otherwise I think most people will do their best to isolate.
You're drifting again. Stay focused. This is nothing more than a simple yes or no.
The CDC says as of Friday that confirmed cases in the US total 1,629. It's linked right there on the page you linked to earlier. Today's number is at 2,900+ as reported in other outlets, among them the NYT tracker. As best I can tell every source is all using the same data, it's just a matter of how frequently they are updated.
Yes or no: do believe that those numbers of confirmed cases of coronavirus (Covid-19) is truly representative of the actual number of cases currently in the US?
As the article said, people will have symptoms and not even know, so no, that number does not include those to my understanding. I am trying to understand what you are getting at. Apparantly you are saying the CDC is over-reporting the severity of this? Since if they only put the number of confirmed cases and the deaths from that. If we go by the flu rate of they estimate 10x roughly on that. That would bump the mortality rate down to similar to that of the flu. Are you trying to suggest that this is the same as the flu by saying the CDC underestimates the cases?
Please do not go by the influenza numbers; yes, there are some number of cases we do not know about yet, but please don't just assume this is like influenza. By all accounts the fatality rate is higher with COVID-19.
CDC estimates of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic had averages of 60 million infected, 270,000 hospitalized, and 12,470 deaths. That means a case fatality rate around 0.02%.
For this outbreak to be similar to H1N1 influenza, the 63 reported deaths in the US so far would be 0.02% of 315,000 infections.....or 92 times the currently reported case numbers.
Please, please do not compare this to influenza in any way.
Let's take this from the beginning.
In this post you mock @WhoISthis for implying that the data on coronavirus cases in the US is not useful for decision-making at this present time.
I've been asking you ever since if you believe that it is. Finally, after much effort, you seemed to say that no, it is not reliable - which puts you in agreement with @WhoISthis.
The point is this: it's not that the CDC is lying to us, or passing along bad data. It's that the data itself is incomplete because 1) we have far few tests for people who need them, so there's no way we are capturing all actual coronaviruses cases in these numbers, and 2) even if we had the tests we need, it's a lagging indicator and that "confirmed case" has likely infected numerous others by the time the test is confirmed.
So given all that, it doesn't make sense for the CDC to issue guidance on public gatherings or school closure recommendations based on that data, because the data itself is unreliable. That's why you see governors like Ohio's taking action based on what they know is coming rather than the unreliable data they have now.
Finally, I'm not talking about influenza in any way, shape, or form.
The problem with online school is FAPE. Districts would have to provide devices (which many already do) and wireless access to kids, at least those without it at home. Maybe for all. Public education has to be free. That is a lot of hotspots needed.
In my opinion, you either tack the time on to the end or you forgive it entirely. Unless the feds are going to provide economic help in providing wireless access, online learning at the K-12 level won’t happen.
I was not, I was asking what the point was of the person I replied to. It seemed like he felt for every case that was reported there were several that were not. I think there are some, but not at that level. My MIL, about 10 days ago, went to the clinic to see if she had it since she had a stuffy nose. Last I saw there were 62 deaths with 3200 approximately reported cases. Quick math puts that at 2%. (US wise, I prefer that since I don't know all health regs and situations of other countries) Unless the thought is that there are several deaths not getting reported, I don't get what his point is about there being a bunch of people who have it that just won't report. Maybe he feels they aren't reporting true cases, I honestly don't know.
When someone wants to say that there are a bunch of people who have it and will never know and won't show the symptoms, it kinda gives the impression that it isn't as bad as it is.
I gave you the yes or no answer, now please link places that you are basing you information from. And once again you twist things. I NEVER said the information from CDC was unreliable. You asked me if the numbers were accurate, that is what I replied to. If you are going to twist stuff that much, I am just ignoring you. That is a complete twist and lie there.
My information that we don't have enough tests? It's literally everywhere. Is that the fact you're challenging here, because hoo boy
Sigh.
I'm not twisting anything. I think we're in agreement that the information from the CDC is accurate - as in, nobody doubts that is the real count.
But while that it is true, it is also true that we are not testing nearly enough people. So those numbers, while accurate, underrepresent what's actually happening.
So it's the best we have. But it isn't good for making decisions on. Which is why smart politicians are shutting things down now, because it's likely already far worse out there than anyone realizes.
This was an interesting thread until it turned into a two-person pissing match.
Not transmitted via those types of bodily fluids so hopefully we are okay there.
So as long as they don’t kiss they should be good.
I have reason to believe that the Council Bluffs Community School District and the Lewis Central Community School Districts will have school tomorrow and then be closed at least for the remainder of the week and the next week. Perhaps more school districts will be joining them.
Weird. Now seems like one of those times when leadership is needed most.
What leadership? We have none.
So the legislature will be safe, but not teachers and students in this state. Reynolds will probably be safe too. How nice.
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