It is the first week of Feb. I know moving goalposts if your thing, and no matter what happens you will define this year as a fade.
I don't think there's an exact time when the fade happens. Similar to you never know when Garza will disappear in games you just know it will be in the last 10 min. Sometimes it's the 8 min mark, sometimes he waits until the 6 min mark. Hell last year Iowa didn't fade until the last week of February