Big 12 Championship Game Computer Projection
- Thread starter Dale
- Start date
My simple way of looking at the standings without getting into computer projections or 7-way tie breakers: There are three teams 1 game ahead of us now. We need to get ahead of 2 of them.
We play Texas. Beat them and that's done.
WVU needs to lose 1 more or OU needs to lose 2 more. Not counting on OU losing 2 more so cheering for Texas over WVU to take care of WVU. Go Longhorns.
Beyond that, the chips will fall where they may.
We play Texas. Beat them and that's done.
WVU needs to lose 1 more or OU needs to lose 2 more. Not counting on OU losing 2 more so cheering for Texas over WVU to take care of WVU. Go Longhorns.
Beyond that, the chips will fall where they may.
The most likely (if we win out) is that OU also wins out and we win the tiebreaker over WVU and UT in any fashion whether it's two or three-way.
I mean, I'm not necessarily trying to be argumentative but you did mention that UT beating WVU lets ISU control its destiny, which it does not. I agree that UT beating WVU may potentially put us in a stronger position of making the CCG. It does not under any circumstances (this weekend) guarantee ISU controls its destiny, though, on Sunday morning. (You're fine to not worry about upset scenarios... but you're making assumptions based on improbable events and those improbable events are outside ISU's control.)
The scenario I postulated (ISU W + WVU W + TTU W + (margin of victory or TCU loss) does absolutely make ISU control its destiny. (Provide a counterexample?) OU would have 2 losses, WVU 1 loss, so their game at the end can't result in a bad situation for 7-win ISU.
LOL, this ESPN article doesn't even mention that Iowa State controls their own destiny. It's amazing how bad their content has gotten.
http://www.espn.com/college-footbal...ootball-kickoff-statement-saturday-sec-big-12
http://www.espn.com/college-footbal...ootball-kickoff-statement-saturday-sec-big-12
Any realistic scenario of us in the CCG has us winning out, even though theories have us getting in with 3 losses...it’s not happening. So for us to win out that gives UT their second loss and we win the tie-breaker. So I am cheering for UT to beat WVU to get their 2nd loss out of the way. Even though WVU has the harder schedule down the stretch. Us winning out gives Texas no chance. Now if WVU beats UT, it is still long from over because they still have OSU and OU that can give them a 2nd loss too.
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ISU does not control their own destiny. They can win out, but if WVU also wins out & OU only loses to WVU, OU & WVU would be in the championship game.
We don’t control our own destiny.
Also you really think they are going to highlight Iowa state at Kansas for one of their games to watch on “statement Saturday?” There are a lot of huge games out there this weekend and ours isn’t one of them - because we are exptected to win and take care of business.
Which is why even though the projections say a UT loss this weekend increases ISU CCG chances more, it ends up keeping control in WVU hands. So Go Longhorns. Plus a UT win keeps Texas’ ranking higher for when we beat them. Making our resume even better for a NY6 bowl game. Again this all depends on us winning out, one game at a time controlling what we can.
We are arguing two different things. Look at the context of the rest of that post. I am saying if WVU beats UT then we need someone else to bail us out by beating OU. Which is true. You are arguing that TT bails us out by beating OU.
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Probably because we don't. OU and WVU control their own destiny right now. That's it.
Sorry, so does Texas.
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On top of that this game does not have playoff implications - that's what the article is supposed to be about - as it would take a miracle for ISU to make the playoffs and even sweet baby Jesus himself couldn't get that Kansas team into the playoffs.
We don't want OU to lose. For one, they won't lose twice and we don't want them involved in any tiebreakers because we will hold the head to heads over everyone else that's relevant. That TCU loss is a real ****** though.
I agree that we *probably* don't want OU to lose to TTU, though if WVU beats UT (against the wishes of most), then an OU loss to TTU almost certainly still wraps up the "control your destiny" situation for ISU. That's all I'm trying to say, I guess. If you work it out, there's no way to be left out in tiebreakers in that situation: ISU can only tie OU in either a 2-way tie for first, or a winnable 3-way tie with OU/ISU/TTU (pending margin-of-victory, or TCU loss) or OU/ISU/WVU (or winnable 4-way, or others not involving OU). Those 3-way ties are more guaranteed for ISU since losing to good teams (e.g. WVU) is worse than losing to bad ones (e.g. TCU) for tiebreakers.
So if WVU pulls out the upset in the afternoon... most definitely cheer for TTU at night, unless you like the biggest possible road to glory for ISU springing upsets over the highest ranked teams (which is a bandwagon I can get on).
Since we are playing Big 12 week 10 roulette, if BU beats OSU or TCU beats KSU, are you good with pulling for UT beating WVU and OU beating TT leading to ISU beating a higher ranked UT?
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I mean, I'm great with pulling for ISU beating a higher ranked UT no matter the situation! So sure, I like that logic. And yes, it probably does get ISU closer to controlling its path than it is right now.
If UT wins this week, then having OSU win and TCU lose would get things closer to locked-in for ISU controlling its destiny (if that's the primary goal) and maximizing its national visibility (which is a great goal). Those weren't required parts of the scenario I put forward, they actually work the "right way" for ISU as written. ISU is guaranteed to get in with 7 wins if Texas beats WVU and OSU finishes ahead of TCU (or if Texas loses again elsewhere, or many other things).
Past ISU teams would have lost this game tomorrow. We will find out a lot about this team in the next 24 hours. KU is no pushover, but our talent is on the same level as the elite teams in our conference (like WVU). We have never been able to say that before.