My heart says he stays - partially because I just can't imagine how we can avoid some sort of setback with him leaving - but my head says it's about 60/40 or 70/30 that he goes this time based on the smoke billowing out behind the scenes.
There are so many reasons one could argue that he "should" stay - great team, health issues, kids, family, etc... but many of those will be constants for the next 10-15 years and I don't think they're as big of obstacles as they are just details. He already travels a ton, has year-around stress, etc - it would just be different, not necessarily harder.
It's easy to think that his health would prevent him from leaving this year more than any, but he's also a guy that loves ISU MBB as much as any of us die-hards and would want to leave it when it's at it's peak. There is no question that we have a lot of pieces in place for next year and a lot of that is "fixed" in that they're players that wouldn't look to transfer. Add in that he has TJ on the staff to act as a bridge to the next coaching staff and it makes it a lot easier. I don't think TJ is a shoe-in for the HC job, but I think he's certainly designed to serve as a bridge for continuity.
Ask me a week ago what I thought - I would have said 90% chance he stays. Ask me 3 days ago after a couple conversations, I would have said 60% chance he stays. Ask me last night after a round of text messages, I would have said 40% chance he stays. Now I'm at 30-40%.
I don't think anything is decided, but I also know that some of the people that are talking and what they're saying wouldn't be said if it wasn't a greater chance than not that he leaves.
