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***Official 2013 Bracketology Thread***

Final42b said:
I'm going to start cheering for some of these bubble teams to keep Iowa out.
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Anybody who can't pass us, cheer for. From cyclones500

5. Teams with zero shot for at-large still alive as auto-qualifier in multi-bid leagues: Boston College, Florida State, Nebraska, Utah, Vanderbilt.
 
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America East - Vermont (1) - Next game vs. Albany for the Championship

A-10 - VCU, St. Louis, Butler, Temple (4)
Bubble - La Salle (RPI 42, BPI 51, SOS 87) (1)
Fringe - Massachusetts (RPI 58, BPI 82, SOS 69) (1) - Xavier is eliminated after losing to ST. Joseph's (who was picked as the preseason winner of the A-10). UMASS survives GW and faces Temple. La Salle is in a win and you are in position. They face Butler.

ACC - Miami, Duke, North Carolina, North Carolina State (4)
Bubble - Virginia (RPI 68, BPI 37, SOS 100) (1) - Virginia will face NC State in the ACC Tourney and will need to win that game to be a lock. If they lose, all their bad losses will doom this team.

Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast (1)

Big 12 - Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Iowa State (4)
Bubble - Oklahoma (RPI 39, BPI 46, SOS 18) - Baylor is eliminated with the heartbreaking loss to OSU. ISU clinches a spot and OU is probably still in. Surprisingly, their RPI is higher than ISU's (44).

Big East - Louisville, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Cincinnati, Villanova (8)

Big Sky - Weber State (1) - Must win Auto Bid. Next game versus North Dakota.

Big South - Liberty (1)

Big Ten - Indiana, Michigan, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota (7)
Bubble - None
Fringe - Iowa (RPI 71, BPI 47, SOS 67) (1) - Non-conference schedule will be the reason Iowa does not get in. The RPI is slowly improving....Next game versus MSU.

Big West - Long Beach State (1) - Auto bid or bust. Next game versus University California Irvine.

CAA - James Madison (1)

CUSA - Memphis (1)
Fringe - Southern Mississippi (RPI 34, BPI 60, SOS 117) (1) - Next game versus Tulsa

Horizon - Valparaiso (1)

Ivy - Harvard - Clinched the Ivy.

MAAC - Iona (1)

MAC - Ohio (1) - Next game versus Western Michigan.

MEAC - Morgan State (1) - Next game vs. Bethune Cookman. Must win Auto Bid. Top 4 seeds in the MEAC have been knocked out.

Missouri Valley - Creighton, Wichita State (2) - Creighton the MVC Champion.

Mountain West - New Mexico, UNLV, Colorado State, SDSU (4)
Bubble: Boise State (RPI 41, BPI 48, SOS 78) (1) - Lost to SDSU to end their MWC tournament. Will have a long wait, but I have confidence they will be selected. They have some very good wins, played a good non-con schedule, and have great computer numbers.

Northeast - LIU Brooklyn (1) - Next game versus Mount Saint Mary's for the Championship. Must win Auto Bid. League leader Robert MOrris eliminated.

Ohio Valley - Belmont - OVC Champion

Pac-12 - Oregon, UCLA, California, Arizona, Colorado (5) - ASU eliminated with the loss to UCLA. The numbers are just not good enough.

Patriot - Bucknell (1)

SEC - Florida, Missouri (2)
Bubble: Kentucky(RPI 48, BPI 43, SOS 39), Tennessee(RPI 55, BPI 58, SOS 36), Ole Miss(RPI 41, BPI 41, SOS 105) (3)
Fringe: Alabama (RPI 63, BPI 65, SOS 54) (1) - I really don't think any of these teams deserves to be in the tournament. That is my bias. However, Kentucky and Tennessee each need one win and possibly two to be solidly into the tournament. The rest need to get to the championship game. I hope they all lose. Tennessee vs. Alabama, Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt, Mississippi vs. Missouri.

Southern - Davidson (1)

Southland - Stephen F. Austin (1) - Must Win Auto Bid. Next game versus Southeast Louisiana

SWAC - Southern (1) - Next game versus Alabama A&M. Must win Auto Bid. Interesting stat, Grambling State went winless for the year.

Summit League - South Dakota State (1)

Sun Belt - Western Kentucky (1)

Bubble - Middle Tennessee (1) - Just like last year, MTSU loses in their conference tournament. Will need a lot of help to get into the tournament. (RPI 31, BPI 49, SOS 138)

WCC - Gonzaga (1)
Bubble - Saint Mary's (RPI 30, BPI 36, SOS 110) (1)

WAC - New Mexico State (1) - Next game versus Texas State. Must win Auto Bid. Top two seed of the tournament have been eliminated.

Locks: 61
Bubble and Fringe: 13
With 61 locks, that leaves only 7 spots for 13 Bubble and Fringe teams. Also, on seedings, there has been so much carnage in the lower conferences, that teams like Vermont, Long Beach, New Mexico State or even Iona could find themselves in the 14 or 13 seed. These teams are more like 15 seeds, but there are going to be some bad teams at the bottom in this tournament.
 
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I don't understand why Minnesota is getting so much love in the seeding. They have only won 3 of their last 10 games. The big 10 has some really good teams at the top, but I think the media is over rating the conference as a whole.
 
I keep seeing tons of bubble teams listed as "in if they win." But what if they all win? They can't be all be in with a win. It'll be interesting to see how it all shakes out.
 
bozclone said:
I don't understand why Minnesota is getting so much love in the seeding. They have only won 3 of their last 10 games. The big 10 has some really good teams at the top, but I think the media is over rating the conference as a whole.
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I really question Minnesota as well, but I don't buy what they have done in the last 10 games crap. Why should a team who has a front loaded schedule and finishes with cupcakes be considered a better team than one whose schedule was all cream puffs on the front end and finished with all the tough games? The NCAA finally recognized that and got rid of any "last X" metrics for the selection committee.
 
VeloClone said:
I really question Minnesota as well, but I don't buy what they have done in the last 10 games crap. Why should a team who has a front loaded schedule and finishes with cupcakes be considered a better team than one whose schedule was all cream puffs on the front end and finished with all the tough games? The NCAA finally recognized that and got rid of any "last X" metrics for the selection committee.
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Minn was playing really well up until a month ago. I think what they did to start the season is the only reason they are getting such a good seed.
 
VeloClone said:
I really question Minnesota as well, but I don't buy what they have done in the last 10 games crap. Why should a team who has a front loaded schedule and finishes with cupcakes be considered a better team than one whose schedule was all cream puffs on the front end and finished with all the tough games? The NCAA finally recognized that and got rid of any "last X" metrics for the selection committee.
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Exactly. Games in November should count just as much as games in February and March. Otherwise, why would you play them?
 
Minny to me is whats wrongg with processs. less weight should be placed on pre season where you play two cupcakes and then a tough team. (repeat) conf play where you play hard teams multiple times a week wears on you.
 
IF YOU ALL MUST KNOW ABOUT MINNESOTA...

Minnesota Big Wins: Memphis(16), MSU(9), Indiana(6), @Ill(43), Wisc(41), (LOL alert)Iowa(77)

Minnesota has 5 other wins over top 100 teams as well.

I had to prove to some Hawk fans why their resume wasn't better yesterday, this was my response.
 
NATEizKING said:
IF YOU ALL MUST KNOW ABOUT MINNESOTA...

Minnesota Big Wins: Memphis(16), MSU(9), Indiana(6), @Ill(43), Wisc(41), (LOL alert)Iowa(77)

Minnesota has 5 other wins over top 100 teams as well.

I had to prove to some Hawk fans why their resume wasn't better yesterday, this was my response.
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They also played the 2nd toughest schedule in the county.
 
cyclones500 said:
On the low end of the field, if my count is correct, we could see four teams with losing records in the tournament.

Guaranteed:
Liberty
SWAC champ

MEAC
WAC (doubtful, but still possible)
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These teams should have to be in play-in games.
 
BigBake said:
Minny to me is whats wrongg with processs. less weight should be placed on pre season where you play two cupcakes and then a tough team. (repeat) conf play where you play hard teams multiple times a week wears on you.
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Not only that, but the fact that it is in the beginning of the season too. Good teams will improve with time. So they don't beat some ranked team in the first few weeks of the season. If they are close losses, and at the end of the season the team has shown improvement and beaten those same calibur type teams, then the early losses shouldn't be counted as much.

ISU last year, we weren't that amazing at the beginning of the season, but by the end of it we could play with anybody in our league and the committee took that more into account when seeding us IMO. All teams go through it. In 2004, when UNC won the championship (2005), they lost one of their first games to Santa Clara. They were still the 1 seed and the committee didn't dwell too much on that loss.

It reminds me a little of college and jobs. You are expected to do well from the start, but if you get a 2.7 your Freshman year and Junior and Senior year you get a 3.7, they aren't going to pay as much attention to your 2.7 since you did well at the end there.

I have heard past committees say they emphasize how you play the end of your season too.
 
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