***Official 2013 Bracketology Thread***

[jbhtexas]

Even if they did put a ceiling on bids, conference-by-conference, Big 12 compares favorably to every league except Big Ten and Big East (Sagarin has Big 12 3rd behind those, for what it's worth) ... is the sixth-best team in Big 12 worse than sixth in A-10, SEC, MWC, ACC and Pac-10? If so, and all of them were snubbed, to what other teams are those five bids going to go?

What if the final spot comes down to a Big-12 team versus Big Ten team?

A computer isn't making the final selections and seedings, people are, and people have biases. Unless you are Mr. Spock and can mind-meld with the selection committee, none of us really knows what biases are affecting the selection committee members.

I know Lunardi isn't the selection committee, but supposedly he knows something about how the brackets are selected. Look at his latest bracket...

He has Oklahoma (20-10, 11-7, 33 RPI, 19 SOS) as a 10-seed, Colorado (20-10, 10-8, 36 RPI, 20 SOS) as a 10 seed moving up, while he has Illinois (20-11, 8-10, 43 RPI, 9 SOS) as an 8-seed moving up. What in those numbers makes Illinois 2 seeds higher than OU and CU? Both OU and Illinois have wins over a top 5 team, both have ugly losses. CU doesn't have any big wins, so there might be something there. The only reason I can see that you would seed a team 2 spots lower than a team with lower slightly lower RPI and slighter higher SOS is bias.

 

[CloneJob]

Do we basically root against anybody below us on the list? I like rooting for the teams ahead of Iowa, but I don't want that to come back and haunt us.

 

[cyclonedave25]

Do we basically root against anybody below us on the list? I like rooting for the teams ahead of Iowa, but I don't want that to come back and haunt us.

Yes.

 

[gocubs2118]

What if the final spot comes down to a Big-12 team versus Big Ten team?

A computer isn't making the final selections and seedings, people are, and people have biases. Unless you are Mr. Spock and can mind-meld with the selection committee, none of us really knows what biases are affecting the selection committee members.

I know Lunardi isn't the selection committee, but supposedly he knows something about how the brackets are selected. Look at his latest bracket...

He has Oklahoma (20-10, 11-7, 33 RPI, 19 SOS) as a 10-seed, Colorado (20-10, 10-8, 36 RPI, 20 SOS) as a 10 seed moving up, while he has Illinois (20-11, 8-10, 43 RPI, 9 SOS) as an 8-seed moving up. What in those numbers makes Illinois 2 seeds higher than OU and CU? Both OU and Illinois have wins over a top 5 team, both have ugly losses. CU doesn't have any big wins, so there might be something there. The only reason I can see that you would seed a team 2 spots lower than a team with lower slightly lower RPI and slighter higher SOS is bias.

Illinois top 50 wins: @Gonzaga, Indiana, Ohio State, Buter (N), Minnesota
Oklahoma top 50 wins: Kansas, Oklahoma St., Iowa St.
Colorado top 50 wins: Arizona, Colorado St., Calfornia

You don't see the difference in big wins between Illinois and those other two teams? Really? Come on. It's not even close between the three.

 

[Wesley]

I see what you're saying, but that isn't what CyJack13 was saying, know what I'm sayin'? :smile:

It was a comparison of MTSU pedigree with Missouri State's, resume-wise — I think 3 teams from Valley got bids that year, Missouri State was nearby in the overall mix, with resume similar to a lot of other non-MVC bubble teams

(It was a little like this year's MWC and A-10, slightly less deep).

Those Valley teams were able to get meaningful wins vs. each other — Middle Tennessee didn't have those opportunities in this year's Sun Belt.

Watching MTSU yesterday, they did not look that good.

 

[CycloneErik]

How many teams with a top 50 RPI don't make it?

I feel very secure, regardless of what happens Thursday.
I expect to win Thursday. Then more of us feel secure.
Frankly, I half expect to get our third win over Kansas on Friday. We're due, and they can't dodge that bullet forever.

I don't want to get cocky about Saturday, though. Not until Friday is over.

 

[jbhtexas]

Illinois top 50 wins: @Gonzaga, Indiana, Ohio State, Buter (N), Minnesota
Oklahoma top 50 wins: Kansas, Oklahoma St., Iowa St.
Colorado top 50 wins: Arizona, Colorado St., Calfornia

You don't see the difference in big wins between Illinois and those other two teams? Really? Come on. It's not even close between the three.

Ok. But so what? Isn't RPI really supposed to take into account account big wins, bad losses, SOS. etc. RPI indicates that OU 10 ranks spots above Illinois. Somehow, Lundardi has Illinois seeded two spots better than OU.

 

[bosco]

How many teams with a top 50 RPI don't make it?

I feel very secure, regardless of what happens Thursday.
I expect to win Thursday. Then more of us feel secure.
Frankly, I half expect to get our third win over Kansas on Friday. We're due, and they can't dodge that bullet forever.

I don't want to get cocky about Saturday, though. Not until Friday is over.

Prior to the WVU game during the Phillips B12 pregame there was a guest Bracketologists (I think it was Lunardi) saying historically teams with a similar resume and RPI as ISU got in 80% of the time.

 

[GMackey32]

Prior to the WVU game during the Phillips B12 pregame there was a guess Bracketologists (I think it was Lunardi) saying historically teams with a similar resume and RPI as ISU got in 80% of the time.

It was Lunardi. In his ESPN Insider article today, he said that ISU and OU both have a greater than 90% chance of getting in the tournament right now.

Edit: I should add that he says there are 13 bubble teams vying for 5 spots and ISU is 2 slots above the First Four games.

 

[oldman]

So if ISU beats OU, will that move our seeding up to 9? And can someone please tell me what the BPI is, and how much different is it from RPI?

 

[Rhoadhoused]

So if ISU beats OU, will that move our seeding up to 9? And can someone please tell me what the BPI is, and how much different is it from RPI?

BPI is like kenpom only it accounts for things like major players who don't play games and some other stuff.

So compared to RPI it counts margin of victory and other efficiency ratings.

 

[cyclonedave25]

So if ISU beats OU, will that move our seeding up to 9? And can someone please tell me what the BPI is, and how much different is it from RPI?

If we beat OU and lose to KU I think we'll be a 10 seed.
If we lose in the Big 12 championship, I could see us in the 6-7 seed range. If we win the Big 12 championship, I'm thinking 4-5 seed range.

And if we lose to OU, Im thinking 11-12 seed.

 

[CyForPresident]

How many teams with a top 50 RPI don't make it?

I feel very secure, regardless of what happens Thursday.
I expect to win Thursday. Then more of us feel secure.
Frankly, I half expect to get our third win over Kansas on Friday. We're due, and they can't dodge that bullet forever.

I don't want to get cocky about Saturday, though. Not until Friday is over.

From a major conference, no one. Top 50 RPI major conference teams are in 99% of the time. The problem is that a loss on Thursday will likely drop ISU's RPI from outside the top 50. They are currently at 47, but RPI forecast predicts ISU's RPI will be 56 with a loss to OU. That is not good.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/Iowa St..html

The more I look at this, the more I think we need to win IMO.

 

[Cyclonestate78]

Ok. But so what? Isn't RPI really supposed to take into account account big wins, bad losses, SOS. etc. RPI indicates that OU 10 ranks spots above Illinois. Somehow, Lundardi has Illinois seeded two spots better than OU.

Illinois beat Gonzaga by 11. Gonzaga beat Oklahoma by 25.

 

[jbhtexas]

Illinois beat Gonzaga by 11. Gonzaga beat Oklahoma by 25.

I'm pretty sure those games are included in the RPI rankings.

 

[Cyclonestate78]

I'm pretty sure those games are included in the RPI rankings.

Illinois deserves a higher seed then Oklahoma. They earned it.

 

[jbhtexas]

Illinois deserves a higher seed then Oklahoma. They earned it.

Do you have some kind of objective rating system that shows this? A higher seed is not indicated by RPI, overall winning %, or conference winning %.

 

[gocubs2118]

Do you have some kind of objective rating system that shows this? A higher seed is not indicated by RPI, overall winning %, or conference winning %.

Maybe because the quality of Illinois' wins outweigh all those other metrics. Their big wins are so much better than Colorado and Oklahoma, that the difference in their RPI doesn't really matter. RPI is only one metric and doesn't tell the whole story, especially when it comes to teams like Oklahoma.

 

[Spam]

Maybe because the quality of Illinois' wins outweigh all those other metrics. Their big wins are so much better than Colorado and Oklahoma, that the difference in their RPI doesn't really matter. RPI is only one metric and doesn't tell the whole story, especially when it comes to teams like Oklahoma.

i thought rpi incorporated quality of wins AND other factors.

 

[jbhtexas]

Maybe because the quality of Illinois' wins outweigh all those other metrics. Their big wins are so much better than Colorado and Oklahoma, that the difference in their RPI doesn't really matter. RPI is only one metric and doesn't tell the whole story, especially when it comes to teams like Oklahoma.

Big wins...just another arbitrary, subjective metric developed to help folks justify their biases...