Hlas prediction for Stanzi

Stanzi as a pro prostpect compares favorably to Tony Pike. I will be interested to see where he goes this weekend. I expect Stanzi to be on a lot of NFL teams' radars next season. The ratio is ridiculous. Iowa doesn't run up the score that way. I would expect if Iowa were to get a comfortable lead that they would like to get Vandenberg some time.
 
I'll bite. There was a reason Iowa's O was rated 62nd last season, and it had nothing to do with talent. I posted this over on a CFN message board about Iowa's offense. I think it does a pretty good job of explaining why, even though Iowa lost some talent on the offensive line, I expect their O to be much more explosive this season:

Typically, Iowa's offensive line is tinkered with for a game or two, then the line is set and has time to gel. In 09, however, Iowa's OL was hit with injuries. Bryan Bulaga missed a month, Dace Richardson (a mid season all american) missed almost half the season, Julian Vandervelde missed all of fall camp and wasn't able to start until game 3. Iowa's OL rotation was always changing (guys moving from tackle to guard and left to right), making it nearly impossible to develop any consistency. Iowa's offensive scheme is VERY dependent on the OL gelling and blocking well as a unit (with the zone blocking scheme). The OL never gained ANY consistency last season.....so even though Iowa loses 5 talented offensive linemen this season, I don't expect as large of a drop off as most do. Reiff will be a top 10 pick by the time he leaves Iowa...so Iowa already has one stud OL to build from. Vandervelde returns for his senior campaign and will add some experience to the OL. The other three spots are currently up for grabs, but two of the guys competing for those spots are guys that Ferentz labeled as "up and comers" from last years fall camp. I think it is encouraging that it seems Iowa's OL is almost already set in spring. From what I'm hearing, Ferentz is keeping the OL together this spring so they become completely familiar with each other and are able to gain some consistency in their blocking assignments. Even though Iowa loses some great talent up front (Richardson, Bulaga, Calloway), they bring back one guy who we know is a stud, and bring back a few guys that Ferentz himself has said he is excited about. I don't expect this Iowa OL to be 2002esque, but I do expect that they'll be more like a 2003 OL anchored by Robert Gallery.

Injuries were key elsewhere in limiting Iowa's offense all season. Iowa lost Tony Moeaki, Colin Sandeman (WR), Paul Chaney Jr., Brandon Wegher (RB), Adam Robinson (RB), Jewel Hampton (RB), Trey Stross (WR), and of course, Ricky Stanzi all for AT LEAST one game last season (and most of those guys missed multiple games). As you can see, the OL wasn't the only thing that never got "in sync" due to injuries. Iowa's offense just looked off all year, even though the offense had a lot of individual talent. The reason, I personally believe, was because the offense never got to practice together! Both the passing and rushing games were off because of personnel losses in those departments.

.I certainly agree that Stanzi didn't have a great year, however, keep in mind he didn't have a lot of help from his running game or much consistency from his WR's. His RB's were young, and on top of that, they were injured and didn't get to practice much (and that severely limited their ability to develop during the season), so Iowa didn't have much of a run game (Iowa, as a team, averaged under 4 YPC...which is bad for an Iowa offense). Defenses began realizing that and started keying on the pass. Typically Iowa offenses run into 8 man fronts all of the time, however, in 09, most of the time Iowa's offense was rushing against 7 man fronts and was struggling to rush the ball effectively. So Stanzi ended up throwing into a lot of pass first defense. On top of that, his WR depth chart was never set....injuries altered it all season, thus Stanzi NEVER was able to develop the necessary timing with his WR's, and of course, the passing game suffered.

When watching Iowa's O last season, it was really hard for me. It killed me to see the amount of potential they had, but it was limited entirely by injuries and inconsistency. Iowa's offense just looked so streaky last season, and it was apparent (to me anyway) that it was from a lack of continuity. Iowa would run the same play twice, once getting stuffed, then once going for 30 yards....there was rarely any middle ground (or so it seemed). Iowa's talent either made the play work big, or their lack of offensive consistency created a situation where the play got blown up.

Iowa only had TWO starters start all 13 games last season, TWO! I haven't checked or anything, but that HAS to be the lowest number in the Big Ten. If Iowa can avoid the injury bug (and that is a HUGE if for Iowa), I think they will surprise the crap out of a lot of people. I think this Iowa offense could be better than any Iowa offense since 2002. Definitely not better than 02, but better than any team since IMO. Hopefully Iowa can remain injury free so my prediction comes to fruition.


Couple of other thoughts on Iowa's offense that just crossed my mind:

- Iowa's OL will be practicing against one of the best DL's in the country everyday in practice. If that doesn't help you improve, I don't know what would.

- Stanzi threw an alarming number of INT's last year, but if you go back and watch them, you'll see that often they were a result of a WR (with little experience/timing with Stanzi) running a poor route/not coming back to the ball. No doubt Stanzi still made some bad throws, however, he wasn't as bad as his INT numbers indicate. Also, if you watched some of the good throws he made, they were damn impressive. Like NFL QB impressive.

- Back to the OL....there always, and I mean literally ever season, is a guy on the OL that comes out of nowhere to really impress the coaches. Some guys in recent years that have been "breakout players" have been Riley Reiff, Rob Bruggeman, Marshal Yanda, etc. I fully expect for one guy to emerge this year as an unknown star on the OL. My best guess as to who that will be: Markus Zusevics.

- People point out that the loss of Tony Moeaki will be significant for the Iowa offense. While Moeaki was certainly a weapon, Iowa will reload at TE. I have no doubt that Allen Reisner will end up in the NFL one day. Every starting Iowa TE has been drafted since Dallas Clark, check out this list of Iowa TE's who were drafted:

Dallas Clark 2003
Erik Jenson 2004
Tony Jackson 2005
Scott Chandler 2006
Brandon Myers 2008
Tony Moeaki 2010 (projected 3rd-5th round)

Iowa is a TE factory, we will be more than fine there.


Right. Iowa had lots of excuses why they weren't that good, I get that. But they weren't that good.
 
Mike Hlas' prediction for Stanzi in 2010 is 27 TDs and 7 INTs. I'm not saying he's high on crack or anything. I just figured somebody ought to record this for future discussions.

His 2009 stats were 17 and 15.

What you're not accounting for is that Stanzi had to transition from being a game-manager in '08 to being the central hub of the O in '09. To say it was both a big and difficult transition would probably be understating things.

The fact that the Hawks had to contend with so much adversity on the OL and had to have 2 FR RBs carry the rushing load ensured that such a large burden was squarely on Stanzi's shoulders.

Also, whether folks recognize it or not, but Stanzi has shown a clear ability to improve in areas where he places emphasis. For example, his fumbles were a HUGE liability in '08 and they cost Iowa at least a few victories. Anyhow, in '09, fumbles by Stanzi were basically a non-issue (the primary ones I recall were barely his fault). The obvious point here being that Stanzi is obviously placing greater emphasis on his decision making and that will likely reduce the number of picks he throws.

Of course, another factor to consider is that a significant number of picks that Stanzi threw were due to him pressing because of Iowa's youth and health at RB. While Iowa will still have to rely more than I'd like on the passing game to open up the running game ... the very fact that Iowa's RBs are much more experienced will give Stanzi A LOT more "wiggle room." I genuinely anticipate that the running game will help Stanzi out in the passing game.

Lastly, had Stanzi remained healthy in '09, then Hawkeye QBs would have likely passed for just a tad over 3000 yards. I frankly don't think that it is a stretch to believe that the Hawks could potentially push that number to maybe a tad over 3200 yards (possibly more). With that sort of production in the passing game and with that production resulting from a QB who isn't pressing ... that equates to more TDs and fewer INTs.

My guess ... 25 TDs and 9 INTs.
 
I'll bite. There was a reason Iowa's O was rated 62nd last season, and it had nothing to do with talent. I posted this over on a CFN message board about Iowa's offense. I think it does a pretty good job of explaining why, even though Iowa lost some talent on the offensive line, I expect their O to be much more explosive this season:

Typically, Iowa's offensive line is tinkered with for a game or two, then the line is set and has time to gel. In 09, however, Iowa's OL was hit with injuries. Bryan Bulaga missed a month, Dace Richardson (a mid season all american) missed almost half the season, Julian Vandervelde missed all of fall camp and wasn't able to start until game 3. Iowa's OL rotation was always changing (guys moving from tackle to guard and left to right), making it nearly impossible to develop any consistency. Iowa's offensive scheme is VERY dependent on the OL gelling and blocking well as a unit (with the zone blocking scheme). The OL never gained ANY consistency last season.....so even though Iowa loses 5 talented offensive linemen this season, I don't expect as large of a drop off as most do. Reiff will be a top 10 pick by the time he leaves Iowa...so Iowa already has one stud OL to build from. Vandervelde returns for his senior campaign and will add some experience to the OL. The other three spots are currently up for grabs, but two of the guys competing for those spots are guys that Ferentz labeled as "up and comers" from last years fall camp. I think it is encouraging that it seems Iowa's OL is almost already set in spring. From what I'm hearing, Ferentz is keeping the OL together this spring so they become completely familiar with each other and are able to gain some consistency in their blocking assignments. Even though Iowa loses some great talent up front (Richardson, Bulaga, Calloway), they bring back one guy who we know is a stud, and bring back a few guys that Ferentz himself has said he is excited about. I don't expect this Iowa OL to be 2002esque, but I do expect that they'll be more like a 2003 OL anchored by Robert Gallery.

Injuries were key elsewhere in limiting Iowa's offense all season. Iowa lost Tony Moeaki, Colin Sandeman (WR), Paul Chaney Jr., Brandon Wegher (RB), Adam Robinson (RB), Jewel Hampton (RB), Trey Stross (WR), and of course, Ricky Stanzi all for AT LEAST one game last season (and most of those guys missed multiple games). As you can see, the OL wasn't the only thing that never got "in sync" due to injuries. Iowa's offense just looked off all year, even though the offense had a lot of individual talent. The reason, I personally believe, was because the offense never got to practice together! Both the passing and rushing games were off because of personnel losses in those departments.

.I certainly agree that Stanzi didn't have a great year, however, keep in mind he didn't have a lot of help from his running game or much consistency from his WR's. His RB's were young, and on top of that, they were injured and didn't get to practice much (and that severely limited their ability to develop during the season), so Iowa didn't have much of a run game (Iowa, as a team, averaged under 4 YPC...which is bad for an Iowa offense). Defenses began realizing that and started keying on the pass. Typically Iowa offenses run into 8 man fronts all of the time, however, in 09, most of the time Iowa's offense was rushing against 7 man fronts and was struggling to rush the ball effectively. So Stanzi ended up throwing into a lot of pass first defense. On top of that, his WR depth chart was never set....injuries altered it all season, thus Stanzi NEVER was able to develop the necessary timing with his WR's, and of course, the passing game suffered.

When watching Iowa's O last season, it was really hard for me. It killed me to see the amount of potential they had, but it was limited entirely by injuries and inconsistency. Iowa's offense just looked so streaky last season, and it was apparent (to me anyway) that it was from a lack of continuity. Iowa would run the same play twice, once getting stuffed, then once going for 30 yards....there was rarely any middle ground (or so it seemed). Iowa's talent either made the play work big, or their lack of offensive consistency created a situation where the play got blown up.

Iowa only had TWO starters start all 13 games last season, TWO! I haven't checked or anything, but that HAS to be the lowest number in the Big Ten. If Iowa can avoid the injury bug (and that is a HUGE if for Iowa), I think they will surprise the crap out of a lot of people. I think this Iowa offense could be better than any Iowa offense since 2002. Definitely not better than 02, but better than any team since IMO. Hopefully Iowa can remain injury free so my prediction comes to fruition.

Couple of other thoughts on Iowa's offense that just crossed my mind:

- Iowa's OL will be practicing against one of the best DL's in the country everyday in practice. If that doesn't help you improve, I don't know what would.

- Stanzi threw an alarming number of INT's last year, but if you go back and watch them, you'll see that often they were a result of a WR (with little experience/timing with Stanzi) running a poor route/not coming back to the ball. No doubt Stanzi still made some bad throws, however, he wasn't as bad as his INT numbers indicate. Also, if you watched some of the good throws he made, they were damn impressive. Like NFL QB impressive.

- Back to the OL....there always, and I mean literally ever season, is a guy on the OL that comes out of nowhere to really impress the coaches. Some guys in recent years that have been "breakout players" have been Riley Reiff, Rob Bruggeman, Marshal Yanda, etc. I fully expect for one guy to emerge this year as an unknown star on the OL. My best guess as to who that will be: Markus Zusevics.

- People point out that the loss of Tony Moeaki will be significant for the Iowa offense. While Moeaki was certainly a weapon, Iowa will reload at TE. I have no doubt that Allen Reisner will end up in the NFL one day. Every starting Iowa TE has been drafted since Dallas Clark, check out this list of Iowa TE's who were drafted:

Dallas Clark 2003
Erik Jenson 2004
Tony Jackson 2005
Scott Chandler 2006
Brandon Myers 2008
Tony Moeaki 2010 (projected 3rd-5th round)

Iowa is a TE factory, we will be more than fine there.


BOOK. OMG.
 
Except for the one huge difference between 2005 and 2010, Iowa returned only 5 defensive starters in 05 (none on the DL) and in 2010 they return 8 defensive starters (all 4 on the DL) and will have a top 5 DL.

And... the same thing happens in 2010 = LOL.
 
The offense, or the team? The offense I'll buy - don't really agree, but I'll buy it.


Iowa was freaking studly last year. I just think their offense was 'average'. Not bad, just not good.

They were ranked 62 which puts them right about the middle of all teams.
 
And... the same thing happens in 2010 = LOL.

How do you figure or can't you read? I will try and help you out a little, so concentrate on the bolded words.

In 2005 --- Iowa's DL had 4 new starters and they returned only 5 starters on D from the previous year

In 2010 --- Iowa's DL has all 4 starters back and 8 on D from the previous year.

And another big difference is the venue where the game is being played.
 
How do you figure or can't you read? I will try and help you out a little, so concentrate on the bolded words.

In 2005 --- Iowa's DL had 4 new starters and they returned only 5 starters on D from the previous year

In 2010 --- Iowa's DL has all 4 starters back and 8 on D from the previous year.

And another big difference is the venue where the game is being played.

I believe he was using that as a hypothetical, as in it would be somewhat humorous and/or ironic if the Iowa dline was not very good this year.
 
Stanzi as a pro prostpect compares favorably to Tony Pike. I will be interested to see where he goes this weekend. I expect Stanzi to be on a lot of NFL teams' radars next season. The ratio is ridiculous. Iowa doesn't run up the score that way. I would expect if Iowa were to get a comfortable lead that they would like to get Vandenberg some time.

Tony Pike threw a lot fewer INTs than Stanzi. I agree that they have a lot in common, but Pike is more consistent. A LOT more consistent.

I'll say Stanzi goes for about 23-15 this year. 5-7th round in the draft.
 
Tony Pike threw a lot fewer INTs than Stanzi. I agree that they have a lot in common, but Pike is more consistent. A LOT more consistent.

I'll say Stanzi goes for about 23-15 this year. 5-7th round in the draft.

With the weapons Iowa has on offense, I'd be shocked if Stanzi throws as many picks this year as last. The running game will be better, and the receivers are the best in the Ferentz era.
 
With the weapons Iowa has on offense, I'd be shocked if Stanzi throws as many picks this year as last. The running game will be better, and the receivers are the best in the Ferentz era.

The same receivers and RBs he had last year. I think he'll throw more TDs, but the INTs he threw last year had nothing to do with the receiving corps. If Tony Pike is a 6th rounder, Ricky should be excited if his name gets called. Pike has far fewer accuracy issues.
 
^ There were multiple times where the receivers were responsible for Ricky's ints. Far too many routes blown or rounded off. Another I vividly remember is when Sandeman dropped a pass, kicked it, and had it landed perfectly into a PSU DB's hands.
There is little doubt Ricky needs to get the interceptions under control, but to say that they hand nothing to do with the receiving corps is rather naive.
 
Id also add that Ricky's accuracy is one of his greatest strengths. What greatly costs Ricky is poor decision making at times, especially on out routes when a line backer is step for step with our releasing TE (see first play from the Michigan game).
 
The same receivers and RBs he had last year. I think he'll throw more TDs, but the INTs he threw last year had nothing to do with the receiving corps. If Tony Pike is a 6th rounder, Ricky should be excited if his name gets called. Pike has far fewer accuracy issues.

The WR's and RB's will both perform significantly better than they did last season. Last season DJK/McNutt weren't the 1/2 WR's until pretty much the bowl game. Last year Stanzi was working with Stross as the #1, with his #2 changing pretty much every week. One week it would be Paul Chaney Jr., the next it would be Colin Sandeman, then it would be DJK/McNutt. Stross was also hurt at times during the season and the #1 WR also changed. So Stanzi never really got in sync with a consistent #1/#2 WR. This season will be different. Going it DJK/McNutt will be 1/2 all spring and all fall camp. Stanzi will work on his timing with two WR's and get familiar with them instead of his line up changing throughout all of camp and early on during the season.

You are totally wrong about making the statement that "none of his interceptions had to do with the receiving corps". Last year a lot of his incompletions/INT's came due to a poorly run route by a WR or a drop - AmesHawk pointed out a great example, in the PSU game, Colin Sandeman literally dropped a perfectly thrown pass, then kicked it into the air so that a PSU defender could easily pick it off. A couple of the pick 6's he threw could most definitely have had at least some of the blame placed on the WR. Rick still needs to work on his decision making skills, he definitely still made some throws that he should have known better than to throw, but I'll guarantee that Iowa's WR position will be much better this year for Rick than it was last year.

Also, you seem to be forgetting that Iowa will actually be adding a RB in Jewel Hampton. Further, both Wegher and Robinson will both have had another full year under their belt and thus they should be improved as well.....especially since they should both be healthy. Iowa's RB situation will be much better if they can stay healthy this year than it was last year. Also, Iowa adds a 4* RB recruit Marcus Coker, who looked pretty darn promising in his high school videos, so he may be able to contribute as well if injuries take their toll on the RB corps again this season.
 
The same receivers and RBs he had last year. I think he'll throw more TDs, but the INTs he threw last year had nothing to do with the receiving corps. If Tony Pike is a 6th rounder, Ricky should be excited if his name gets called. Pike has far fewer accuracy issues.

I guess it's out of the realm of possibilty that they'll get better? The second part is totally false - not all the time, but his receivers had a lot to do with several of those picks.
 
Id also add that Ricky's accuracy is one of his greatest strengths. What greatly costs Ricky is poor decision making at times, especially on out routes when a line backer is step for step with our releasing TE (see first play from the Michigan game).

Or the same play against Arizona, and Ark. St.
 
I know you guys saw all of his pick's so I'll give you that the receivers might have been responsible for some of them, but seems like whenever I saw Iowa, and Stanzi threw a pick, he just threw right to a breaking defensive back/LB. Last year Stanzi was not as good of a QB as Tony Pike. This year, he might reach that level, but it's hard to assume that.

I love how it's assumed that Iowa's players will improve and ISU's won't. Classic.
 
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