I have been thinking about worst case scenario since the UCLA, USC news broke. What if the P2 decide to break away and slowly increase the competitive gap with the rules they establish?
Below is an example, not meant to be exactly what unfolds but something along these lines. Key point is, the teams with money have always established the rules to favor themselves (think P5 v. G5 in the past - but this will be a much bigger gap).
1) P2 focuses on collecting top brands and ends up with a power group of 24-32 teams. (Teams will not necessarily be part of a "conference" but it would be more like a mini NCAA... but with actual power to set and enforce rules.)
2) Some teams in the current 32 are kicked out, some are added from the ACC, ND, maybe some of the remaining PAC get picked up and teams like Rutgers, NW, Vandy are dropped.... not going to define who is "in" here... not really important. Net is you have about 100 or so schools in the FBS that are left out.
3) The P2 makes significantly more than the non-P2 (+$100M or so per year), and use this money to set salary caps for "College" athletics... but at this point it's more like semi-pro football. They also allow athletes from non-P2 schools to transfer to P2 programs (do not recognize lower level contracts; just buy players out of whatever deal they are in as needed); however, P2 contracts are recognized and athletes may not move freely between P2 schools. They must be cut from the team to get out of their P2 contract and play at another P2 (think NFL style contracts).
If something along these lines plays out... maybe the "left over 100" could actually do something about it....
1) Establish a new college football league (could be forced to do so if P2 decide to stop playing them at some point)
2) Create regional groupings that mean something to fans
3) Split TV rights revenue evenly between schools and set salary caps based on this revenue to pay players directly (still could lose players to P2, but you would have contracts in place that prevent players and coaches from moving around - again NFL style contracts for players and coaches)
4) Create a playoff that provides access to everyone
5) Stop playing all P2 schools (even if they still allow match-ups between P2 and others) - force them to only play each other and see what happens to interest in 24 brands vs. a regionally relevant league with a true playoff and champion - basically what college football should be if it wasn't for teams like texas, tosu, etc. that want to make sure that the money they bring in gives them a competitive advantage.
The P2 could have an interesting league, but if the "leftovers" were to organize and address the real issues with college athletics, I believe they could drive more total value (less per school). In the long run, the "brands" may see the value of regionally relevant college athletics... who knows, if successful, maybe the "brands" come crawling back after a failed semi-pro experiment!
I know this is probably just a dream. But I guess my hope is that the P2 go too far and eliminate 100+ teams that have "no value" to them and those teams band together and create a more valuable league that fans actually want to watch.
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