What? Oil dropped below $114 today and they have been shooting/bombing/invading since early this am (our time)...
World War III???
- Thread starter Phaedrus
- Start date
What? Oil dropped below $114 today and they have been shooting/bombing/invading since early this am (our time)...
This report shows 10x that number just a few weeks ago...
U.S. starts 'war games' in ex-Soviet state - Russia - MSNBC.com
From the article above:
The two-week exercise was taking place at the Vaziani military base near the capital Tbilisi, which was a Russian air force base until Russian forces withdrew at the start of this decade under a European arms reduction agreement.
Sounds like the Russians waited until the troops rotated out last week before making their move today. The article I quoted was from today, and the US official was counting people there now.
Edit: Yep, appears that is exactly the case:
http://georgiandaily.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=5441&Itemid=65
10 days ago, troops left the area, and there are 130 there, now.
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If I am reading the story right, it sounds like Georgia made their move, and of course the Russians were in place to respond.
Yes, you are correct. I should have said Georgians made their move, not the Russians. I stand corrected.
I really meant to say that, but I generalized too much. My bad.
New top story on Google, it seems. More **** no one cares about. Kinda sad that Google's top news story is from TMZ.com.
Edwards Admits Affair, Says Enquirer Was Right - TMZ.com
Actually most everyone does care about that, which is why it's the top news story. Really sad that is what people want to know about, not a military skirmish that could potentially set the stage for something much, much bigger. People need to wake up.
It was a clipped remark. Shorthand. I majored in American history/poly sci in college; so, yeah, I'm aware of the '40s. Much of my non-fiction reading today deals with WWII and the social and cultural U.S. homefront.
More specifically, in the 1930s Pax Americana did not exist, we were not the world policeman, we did not spend a colossal amount of money on defense, we did not think we had to push our nose into every corner of the world. For me, limited to these specific topics, this was an attractive situation.
I understand that world events thrust themselves upon us and changed the nature of this republic in numerous and serious ways during the 1940s, forevermore. I get it.
It's sad that I hear about this from an online college message board first before any, you know, "news channels". All they are talking about today is john edwards affair.
After hearing about it some more, this might just blow over. I doubt anyone in the world would be dumb enough to escalate this higher than diplomatic talks with Russia.
My money is/was on 09.11.01. I think things between the Muslim world and the West will get far worse before they get better....
.... I hope I'm wrong.
This is one of those days where my life seems somewhat surreal. I am an analyst on an emerging markets debt portfolio management team at a large investment management company. I got to work this morning, logged onto my bloomberg machine, and see about 15 messages with various headlines from Georgia. The most ominous one was something about Putin telling Bush that Russia is at war.
My portfolio manager and I start discussing if the $3 drop in Georgian bond prices is enough to compensate for this new news. We decide it's not. Then the discussion moves to how much bonds of a country at war should yield. We decide 10% absolute minimum. Georgian bonds do not yield 10%, but at the rate their dropping, they will soon!
At 8:30 I got on a conference call with Georgian's prime minister, whose goal was to convince us that everything is hunky dory. He's not successful. Overall, he's incredulous at what he perceives as completely irrational behavior on the part of the Russians. It took some restraint to not ask him why they don't just give these two damn cities to Russia and be done with it. I was hoping someone else would ask. I didn't have the cajones. No one else did either.
Throughout the day I got several e-mails from "Georgia Investor Relations" telling me how great everything was in Georgia and how the violence was not affecting the economy. Did you know today's government revenue in Georgia was the highest of any day in August so far? Now you do.
Anyway, Georgia bonds are now priced at just under $.90 on the $1. Not a disaster. If this conflict continues, they will be headed below $.80. Who knows where they would stop, the economy is very dependent on foreign finances, which won't keep flowing in if the conflict continues.
Good times.
My portfolio manager and I start discussing if the $3 drop in Georgian bond prices is enough to compensate for this new news. We decide it's not. Then the discussion moves to how much bonds of a country at war should yield. We decide 10% absolute minimum. Georgian bonds do not yield 10%, but at the rate their dropping, they will soon!
At 8:30 I got on a conference call with Georgian's prime minister, whose goal was to convince us that everything is hunky dory. He's not successful. Overall, he's incredulous at what he perceives as completely irrational behavior on the part of the Russians. It took some restraint to not ask him why they don't just give these two damn cities to Russia and be done with it. I was hoping someone else would ask. I didn't have the cajones. No one else did either.
Throughout the day I got several e-mails from "Georgia Investor Relations" telling me how great everything was in Georgia and how the violence was not affecting the economy. Did you know today's government revenue in Georgia was the highest of any day in August so far? Now you do.
Anyway, Georgia bonds are now priced at just under $.90 on the $1. Not a disaster. If this conflict continues, they will be headed below $.80. Who knows where they would stop, the economy is very dependent on foreign finances, which won't keep flowing in if the conflict continues.
Good times.
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