Williams & Blum pod - 8.1.21

[cyman05]

Great points throughout the pod.

1. I fully see if this remains on course that it’s only a matter of time until the Pac12 brands and ACC brands leave for the B10 and SEC money. Even if that’s past ‘25 or ‘26. I think everyone outside the SEC would like to avoid this 2 conference scenario and there are/will be conversations happening among ADs about this country wide. In the past those PAC and ACC schools have lived with a $10M revenue difference, but can they live with a $50M difference in the future?
2. One difference in the fan outrage with the soccer mega conference is everyone was impacted at once. If right now 32 P5 teams instead of 8 were being impacted I wonder if you get a different fan reaction to stop this.
3. Love the last point about brand changes in status. How did the brands become brands over time? Winning. Money can’t buy wins. That can erode over time too as Nebby is learning with today vs 10 or 20 years ago. If you’re Arkansas was moving to the SEC worth it as a fan in the 90s? Who can build up their brand in a weaker conference (did you hear much about UCF 10 years ago?)
4. Still drives me nuts that there is nobody governing the sport or looking out for the greater good. Have we learned nothing from last summer with COVID chaos and everyone doing something different? Guess not. It’s all about getting the most money and power. Will be interesting to see how it all plays out and who looks back and wonders, what did we do?

Love the content gents. Thanks!

 

[Cyclonepride]

If the SEC moves to pillage the other conferences of top teams, I think all remaining schools should band together, form their own association, hold their own championships, and refuse to play SEC teams. Let them have their semi-pro league and see how it works out for them that way.

 

[Bipolarcy]

If the SEC moves to pillage the other conferences of top teams, I think all remaining schools should band together, form their own association, hold their own championships, and refuse to play SEC teams. Let them have their semi-pro league and see how it works out for them that way.

I can't really see how that would work out since ESPN is the driver of all things in college football. They could just show SEC games and whatever is left over would be taken up by FOX or a network, but who would watch it? It would be sort of like a choice between watching the NFL or watching Arena League or CFL. The audiences in the best-of-the-rest conference would be tiny compared to what an SEC game could generate, unless I miss my guess, and subsequently, the money wouldn't be nearly as good.

 

[Cyclonepride]

I can't really see how that would work out since ESPN is the driver of all things in college football. They could just show SEC games and whatever is left over would be taken up by FOX or a network, but who would watch it? It would be sort of like a choice between watching the NFL or watching Arena League or CFL. The audiences in the best-of-the-rest conference would be tiny compared to what an SEC game could generate, unless I miss my guess, and subsequently, the money wouldn't be nearly as good.

In the age of streaming, there are a lot of things possible now that weren't before. There are more fans of non-elite programs than there are of elite programs (by a wide margin).

Everyone seems to think that ESPN is the giant controller of everything, but their big contracts have put them in all sorts of trouble, to the point where people are questioning whether Disney should sell them off.

 

[Bipolarcy]

In the age of streaming, there are a lot of things possible now that weren't before. There are more fans of non-elite programs than there are of elite programs (by a wide margin).

Everyone seems to think that ESPN is the giant controller of everything, but their big contracts have put them in all sorts of trouble, to the point where people are questioning whether Disney should sell them off.

That's true, but not every one of those fans is going to be watching every one of those best of the rest games and your argument is not taking into account the number of casual fans who have no favorite but just like to watch college football. I suspect that is quite a large number as well. Whose games do you suppose they would watch?

 

[TXCyclones]

Now that the NCAA has been neutered who is going to make sure that athletes aren't taking PED's? Who is going to make sure that athletes' grades are up to some standard? Who is going to make sure that there is nothing "illegal" going on relative to recruiting? Who is going to be there to ignore what Kansas, Duke, NC, etc and instead strip scholarships from smaller schools?

 

[Cyclonepride]

That's true, but not every one of those fans is going to be watching every one of those best of the rest games and your argument is not taking into account the number of casual fans who have no favorite but just like to watch college football. I suspect that is quite a large number as well. Whose games do you suppose they would watch?

I'm not convinced that there are all that many football fans that have no favorite team, but nothing about the term casual makes me think that they're going to be all that reliable of an audience anyway. I'm operating under the assumption that, of those who do passionately support a favorite, there will be a large number of fans ranging from disillusioned to downright angry about being excluded from a "super conference", and that will have an effect on their potential draw.

 

[Win5002]

In the age of streaming, there are a lot of things possible now that weren't before. There are more fans of non-elite programs than there are of elite programs (by a wide margin).

Everyone seems to think that ESPN is the giant controller of everything, but their big contracts have put them in all sorts of trouble, to the point where people are questioning whether Disney should sell them off.

This will be the question. Do fans of the left behind teams watch SEC & B1G national tv games? Do they tune in to CFP's? I don't plan on it.

I think this is ESPN and the big leagues plan to have a two tier revenue system and try and keep a "national audience and only pay 32-40, (possibly 48 teams) at 3-4X the revenue of the other teams.

 

[BWRhasnoAC]

In the age of streaming, there are a lot of things possible now that weren't before. There are more fans of non-elite programs than there are of elite programs (by a wide margin).

Everyone seems to think that ESPN is the giant controller of everything, but their big contracts have put them in all sorts of trouble, to the point where people are questioning whether Disney should sell them off.

Curious how you know this?

 

[ISUTex]

Now that the NCAA has been neutered who is going to make sure that athletes aren't taking PED's? Who is going to make sure that athletes' grades are up to some standard? Who is going to make sure that there is nothing "illegal" going on relative to recruiting? Who is going to be there to ignore what Kansas, Duke, NC, etc and instead strip scholarships from smaller schools?

Did the NCAA do all of that? Did they really? Did they?

 

[BWRhasnoAC]

Now that the NCAA has been neutered who is going to make sure that athletes aren't taking PED's? Who is going to make sure that athletes' grades are up to some standard? Who is going to make sure that there is nothing "illegal" going on relative to recruiting? Who is going to be there to ignore what Kansas, Duke, NC, etc and instead strip scholarships from smaller schools?

I think that's the idea. Gubment needs to step in. These are publicly funded entities that influence the economies of countless cities and states. If you want to abandon ship no more tax free and no more public funding.

 

[Cyclonepride]

Curious how you know this?

I had heard that somewhere, so I looked it up the other day.

No question about it, Disney should sell ESPN as soon as possible

The once-popular sports network is weighing on shares of the entertainment and media company. Here is why investors should be concerned.

www.thestreet.com

Is it Time for Disney to Wave Goodbye to ESPN?

Investors are beginning to ponder the possibility of a Disney-ESPN separation. “The power of Disney isn’t in its sports,” says one analyst.

www.barrons.com

Market strategist: Disney has an 'ESPN problem'

Michael Lee says ESPN overpaid for multi-year sports contracts, and with very little sports happening right now, viewership is down and revenue is drying up.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[Cyrealist]

I can't really see how that would work out since ESPN is the driver of all things in college football. They could just show SEC games and whatever is left over would be taken up by FOX or a network, but who would watch it? It would be sort of like a choice between watching the NFL or watching Arena League or CFL. The audiences in the best-of-the-rest conference would be tiny compared to what an SEC game could generate, unless I miss my guess, and subsequently, the money wouldn't be nearly as good.

There are 130 FBS teams. They all have their alumni and other supporters. The on-air networks all have their sports-only networks. In addition to fans of the schools, I believe a good number of fans would choose to watch NCAA sports, including March Madness rather than SEC semi-pro football.

 

[Cyrealist]

This will be the question. Do fans of the left behind teams watch SEC & B1G national tv games? Do they tune in to CFP's? I don't plan on it.

I think this is ESPN and the big leagues plan to have a two tier revenue system and try and keep a "national audience and only pay 32-40, (possibly 48 teams) at 3-4X the revenue of the other teams.

Real college football shouldn't sell rights to ESPN. They have the SEC.

 

[cytor]

When it comes to watching football on saturdays, I watch ISU first. Then I might casually catch some moments of some other Big 12 games. That's really about it.

If E$PN really wants to alienate the fans of college football, they are off to a great start. Making the playing field uneven will go a long way in getting people to do something else on saturdays.

 

[Cyrealist]

Curious how you know this?

A huge amount of ESPN's revenue is from cable networks. If people cut the cord, non-sports fans won't pay for ESPN. I'm a little surprised they are out throwing around money like they are.

 

[cytor]

A huge amount of ESPN's revenue is from cable networks. If people cut the cord, non-sports fans won't pay for ESPN. I'm a little surprised they are out throwing around money like they are.

The key to hurting E$PN is to get rid of Cable, Dish and Direct TV. They are getting so bad now anyway, they don't offer much for the large $ they ask for on a monthly basis. Streaming is the way to go.

 

[ISUCyclones2015]

The key to hurting E$PN is to get rid of Cable, Dish and Direct TV. They are getting so bad now anyway, they don't offer much for the large $ they ask for on a monthly basis. Streaming is the way to go.

If you have YouTube TV or Sling or whatever. It's the same exact fee that the cable companies forward to you.

Same crap, different method

 

[Win5002]

The key to hurting E$PN is to get rid of Cable, Dish and Direct TV. They are getting so bad now anyway, they don't offer much for the large $ they ask for on a monthly basis. Streaming is the way to go.

What relevant streaming service doesn't include ESPN? ESPN gets paid by both satellite/cable and streaming.

The key will be to boycott watching National T1 & T2 games and CFP/bowl games that don't involve ISU. Then each of the fans that follow schools left behind need to do the same and maybe it collectively sends a message.

 

[Urbandale2013]

Curious how you know this?

Well I am an owner and I say it. ESPN is a disaster for Disney.

The problem I have with this whole discussion is people keep saying they understand Texas, OU and the SEC doing what they are doing. I mean I get it from the perspective of the decision makers because they are old and won’t have to deal with the fallout but get to enjoy the temporary increase in revenue.

That said these decisions do not make an ounce of sense from a long term financial analysis. Just using round simple numbers we can look at it this way. Say if you cared about CFB and set something up to work long term then you were going to get $40,000,00 perpetually. That has a value of $800,000,000. If you assume you can make $100,000,000 a year for the next 10 years but then CFB folds you have a value of about $772,000,000.