While I appreciate the spirit of this thread, it's completely unfair to ask this question. The guy has the fundamentals to be a legend, BUT life is governed by probability. By pure estimation (gut feeling) I would say Paul succeeds five times out ten (50% for you statisticians). In my view, there are two ways to defeat the odds: Coach at an even higher level than his norm, or garner support and patience (a built in feature to the ISU job).
At first glance, most would say he's going to be at least as successful as Dan McCarney, but with the right bounces (probability) he could take us beyond. I voted yes because that's what I want to see, but that's different than reality. Paul controls his destiny. We as fans also control our destiny. Patience and support, those are the intangibles that will tip the odds in ISU's favor.