Where Will ISU End Up if the Big 12 Implodes?

Where Will ISU End Up If the Big 12 Implodes?


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There are definitely some on HawkeyeReport that believe the B1G must expand to 16. Safe to assume ND/Clemson are a pipedream. Who knows if they can attract any Pac 12 schools even though I understand why USC, Stanford, etc would be more attractive than the remaining Big 12 schools.

Assuming the B1G expands to 16 and also assuming they pull from Big 12, then I don't see how OSU is a better fit than ISU. An argument could be made for Baylor and KU based on medical schools though. I don't believe OSU gets in ahead of ISU.

Bayor does not have a medical school. (It can be confusing, but the medical schools in Texas with Baylor in their name are not part of Baylor University.)
 
I think it's worth noting that in 2011 Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Missouri, Texas A&M, TCU and West Virginia all were officially introduced as members of their new conferences within a 3 month time period. That entire time, the Big Ten didn't make a move. It wasn't until the next fall, an entire year later, that the Big Ten made a move and added 2 teams, which was incredibly obvious as being solely for financial gain.

The Big Ten is not going to feel rushed to expand. The ACC GOR is in effect until June of 2036. The Pac-12 GOR expires in June of 2024 and the Big 12 GOR expires in June of 2025.

The Big Ten's media contract expires in 2023 and when they renegotiate, if they think they might expand, they are going to want to know which 2 teams are going to be in the conference when they go into negotiations for how much their product is worth to various media companies. Additionally, the media companies are going to want to know who will be members of the Big Ten before they negotiate as well. Otherwise, you can only make a bid based on who is a member of the conference at the time.

If the Big Ten thinks they need to expand or decide they want to for financial reasons, they will likely wait until next year. It gives time to let the dust settle a little bit, it provides time for the Big Ten and it's presidents/ADs to really figure out what's going on, it allows them to analyze their options should they choose to act. But it also would be before members of the Pac-12 and members of the Big 12 renew any media contracts they are currently in with their respective conferences. I would be absolutely shocked if The Big announced anyone as being a new member to their conference within the next few months, especially if that's Iowa State. We are not their #1 choice, strictly from a financial viewpoint. They are going to weigh their options first.
 
Honest questions...knowing JP can be pretty damned creative, is there a possible scenario whereby he would negotiate with B1G or PAC by discounting our $ take in the conference for "x" number of years to make ISU's entrance more palatable. If the Big XII doesn't dissolve and T and OU pay out their GoR contract, does that help offset some costs that JP gives up to get us into a P4? Can the numbers and/or this kind of approach possibly work?
 
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Honest questions...knowing JP can be pretty damned creative, is there a possible scenario whereby he would negotiate with B1G or PAC by discounting our take in the conference for "x" number of years to make ISU's entrance more palatable. If the Big XII doesn't dissolve and T and OU pay out their GoR contract, does that help offset some costs that JP gives up to get us into a P4? Can the numbers and/or this kind of approach possible work?

Any invite to the B1G would be predicated on a lesser share. All new members agree to it.
 
Any invite to the B1G would be predicated on a lesser share. All new members agree to it.
True....but how much "lesser" than and for how many more years than normal that the B1G or PAC normally expects would encourage them to invite us? Everything is negotiable.....I guess what I am saying is I'd rather calculate how long we can suffer and how much $$ we could suffer to keep our programs and facilities in a relevant P4....otherwise these are going to die a slow death with little hope for a bigger future if stuck in a G5
 
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Honest questions...knowing JP can be pretty damned creative, is there a possible scenario whereby he would negotiate with B1G or PAC by discounting our $ take in the conference for "x" number of years to make ISU's entrance more palatable. If the Big XII doesn't dissolve and T and OU pay out their GoR contract, does that help offset some costs that JP gives up to get us into a P4? Can the numbers and/or this kind of approach possibly work?
Don't they already do that? I thought Nebraska started off at like a half share of the revenue, then it increased to a full share of the revenue over so many years.
 
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I think it's worth noting that in 2011 Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Missouri, Texas A&M, TCU and West Virginia all were officially introduced as members of their new conferences within a 3 month time period. That entire time, the Big Ten didn't make a move. It wasn't until the next fall, an entire year later, that the Big Ten made a move and added 2 teams, which was incredibly obvious as being solely for financial gain.

The Big Ten is not going to feel rushed to expand. The ACC GOR is in effect until June of 2036. The Pac-12 GOR expires in June of 2024 and the Big 12 GOR expires in June of 2025.

The Big Ten's media contract expires in 2023 and when they renegotiate, if they think they might expand, they are going to want to know which 2 teams are going to be in the conference when they go into negotiations for how much their product is worth to various media companies. Additionally, the media companies are going to want to know who will be members of the Big Ten before they negotiate as well. Otherwise, you can only make a bid based on who is a member of the conference at the time.

If the Big Ten thinks they need to expand or decide they want to for financial reasons, they will likely wait until next year. It gives time to let the dust settle a little bit, it provides time for the Big Ten and it's presidents/ADs to really figure out what's going on, it allows them to analyze their options should they choose to act. But it also would be before members of the Pac-12 and members of the Big 12 renew any media contracts they are currently in with their respective conferences. I would be absolutely shocked if The Big announced anyone as being a new member to their conference within the next few months, especially if that's Iowa State. We are not their #1 choice, strictly from a financial viewpoint. They are going to weigh their options first.

I think it is a little bit of a cherry-picked talking point and pretty meaningless when B1G’s acceptance of Nebraska in 2010 is what caused those moves in 2011. Of course the B1G didn’t need to rush into expansion after they caused the whole thing and got their 12th member to get to a nice round number. 12 was a proven conference number…only the SEC was talking 14 and everyone thought they were crazy at the time.

Also, I guarantee renegotiations are going on right now. There is no “when they renegotiate”…they aren’t waiting until next year.
 
Honest questions...knowing JP can be pretty damned creative, is there a possible scenario whereby he would negotiate with B1G or PAC by discounting our $ take in the conference for "x" number of years to make ISU's entrance more palatable. If the Big XII doesn't dissolve and T and OU pay out their GoR contract, does that help offset some costs that JP gives up to get us into a P4? Can the numbers and/or this kind of approach possibly work?
Nebraska didn't get a full share of B1G revenue until after 5 years in the conference. Would expect the same deal.
 
Honest questions...knowing JP can be pretty damned creative, is there a possible scenario whereby he would negotiate with B1G or PAC by discounting our $ take in the conference for "x" number of years to make ISU's entrance more palatable. If the Big XII doesn't dissolve and T and OU pay out their GoR contract, does that help offset some costs that JP gives up to get us into a P4? Can the numbers and/or this kind of approach possibly work?

If ISU ends up in the Big 10 we won't be getting full share for the first several years anyway. At least five.
 
If ISU ends up in the Big 10 we won't be getting full share for the first several years anyway.


Would JP negotiating longer than 5 years and/or less % make B1G or PAC interested? Is it even conceivably possible without cutting our own throats to do to be in a P4?
 
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Would JP negotiating longer than 5 years and/or less % make B1G or PAC interested? Is it even conceivably possible without cutting our own throats to do to be in a P4?
I'd take that chance and do it. The alternative is MANY more years (maybe forever) in a G5 quality league.
 
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