No inside knowledge here but a serious answer to
@t-noah and the question...
-- The most obvious one: Pollard has to retire at some point. He's already had one serious health crisis, and while I'm sure being the Iowa State AD is fun, he can't work or live forever. New guy or gal comes in and TJ not getting along with them is the obvious point of failure/departure for this situation.
Pollard is the reason we have TJ (who wanted to work for him) and have kept Campbell (he likes working for Pollard and wants the autonomy over his program that comes with it). Gotta nail that hire.
-- TJ has done a good job identifying and recruiting players who want some combination of getting better, winning, being part of a close-knit program, want to be in Iowa, want to play in the Big 12, and/or want to be Cyclones. That's not to say NIL doesn't matter at all, though. If Iowa State falls too far behind and the sport completely becomes a mercenary one to the point there's no possibility Iowa State can compete at least in the conference, then I wouldn't blame any coach leaving for where he has the resources he needs.
This NIL roller coaster isn't even to the end of the first drop. How it shakes out in the long term once the Wild West period is over is going to be crucial to how attractive Iowa State can be to a guy like TJ.
Outside of those two crises, I can't really think of much of anything.
The fan base isn't going anywhere. The Hilton home court advantage isn't going anywhere. I doubt the Big 12 will lose its premier status with Arizona coming in and Houston here. TJ and Allison's personal connections to Iowa State and Iowa generally aren't going anywhere (at least until Pollard and Fennelly retire, which have to be approaching sometime in the next decade). I don't think he has any interest in the NBA.
Maybe someday the money printer that the Big Ten and SEC have will win out. But that's not going to be soon. I think something bigger about Iowa State or the sport needs to change to drive TJ off.