US vs Panama - World Cup Qualifying

The Oceania semis are happening this morning. It looks like the Solomon Islands are going to win the first, and New Zealand plays Tahiti here in a couple hours. NZ would be the favorite to advance and win the final.

I’ve got to go to Wikipedia now and look up these rosters.
 
I could be having a massive brain fart on a Sunday morning, but I’m pretty sure Costa Rica will need more goals than your example. The US is currently +9 in goal differential so a 2-1 win today would put us at +10. Costa Rica is currently +2 so two 3-0 wins would not be enough to overtake the US.

I think you are forgetting that the score differential on Wednesday is effectively double, since CR plays USA. If they beat us 3-0, they get to add 3 AND we have to subtract 3.
 
I could be having a massive brain fart on a Sunday morning, but I’m pretty sure Costa Rica will need more goals than your example. The US is currently +9 in goal differential so a 2-1 win today would put us at +10. Costa Rica is currently +2 so two 3-0 wins would not be enough to overtake the US.

I believe the goal differential with CR is +7. If they both won tonight 1-0 for example the GD would still be +7. For CR to go ahead of us Wednesday in that scenario they would have to beat us 4-0. Getting 3 tonight is huge and will know where we stand as CR will play and finish against El Salvador right as we start.
 
I believe the goal differential with CR is +7. If they both won tonight 1-0 for example the GD would still be +7. For CR to go ahead of us Wednesday in that scenario they would have to beat us 4-0. Getting 3 tonight is huge and will know where we stand as CR will play and finish against El Salvador right as we start.
Indeed. I feel like we just need to play to win both of the next two matches. I cant believe a team that is 1-0-1 against Mexico, and outplayed them in the Azteca, shouldn't be able to win both matches with relative ease. Take nothing for granted and win it.
 
I think you are forgetting that the score differential on Wednesday is effectively double, since CR plays USA. If they beat us 3-0, they get to add 3 AND we have to subtract 3.
Duh, my brain was not working earlier. You’re right that a 3-0 win over the US would erase 6 goals in the GD disparity.
 
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Really hope Pulisic, Musah, Jedi and Adams have enough in their legs to give us a good 70 minutes tonight.
 
Costa Rica win means we cannot clinch top 3 tonight, but if we win, we're in so long as we don't lose by 4+ goals to CR on Wednesday (and that margin might need to be even greater depending on how much we would win by tonight). So win tonight and we clinch with a win, draw, or 1/2/3 goal loss on Wednesday. If we draw tonight, we would still be in with a win or draw on Wednesday vs. CR. And a draw tonight clinches at worst the one-game playoff vs. an Oceania side.
 
Costa Rica win means we cannot clinch top 3 tonight, but if we win, we're in so long as we don't lose by 4+ goals to CR on Wednesday (and that margin might need to be even greater depending on how much we would win by tonight). So win tonight and we clinch with a win, draw, or 1/2/3 goal loss on Wednesday. If we draw tonight, we would still be in with a win or draw on Wednesday vs. CR. And a draw tonight clinches at worst the one-game playoff vs. an Oceania side.

FYI that we'd now be in even with a 4-goal loss on Wednesday so long as this 3-goal margin holds up.

I don't want to tempt the fate of 2017, but losing by 5 goals to Costa Rica to lose a World Cup spot on the final day of qualifying is unthinkable. (And even if that somehow happened, we'd have the Oceania playoff)
 
At what point does Mexico start getting nervous? A draw tonight and Wednesday with a CR win puts them in 4th.
 

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