I'm of the same mindset; if we can be a plus in the turnover statistic, it greatly enhances this defense (obviously) and its pressure packages. Think about the game last year, outside of our punting, there were only a few plays that decided the game (Long pass that set up Iowa's TD in the 4th Qtr, ISU's inability to score at Iowa's 1 yard line, Zeb Noland sack-fumble). A turnover in ISU's favor would hopefully go a long way.
Ultimately, I think this game rests on our O-line. We never sniffed the red-zone after our first drive last year and struggled rushing/pass protecting. Anything resembling last year's offensive output (transitive property, I know), or our inability to score touchdowns like the UNI game, I think Iowa wins by 7+ again.