I've already made my prediction: IA gets the win 31-17.
There are three keys that could alter my opinion of that:
#1: ISU's DL play. If the line battle looks anything similar to what it looked like last year, ISU won't be in this game come the fourth quarter. ISU has to do a better job on defense of getting penetration into Iowa's backfield. If Coker gets to the LOS untouched like all of Iowa's RB's last season, this game will be a blowout once again. This issue can't simply be offset by blitzing the hell out of Iowa - if ISU does that, look for McNutt and Herman to gain huge chunks of yards at a time rather than Coker gaining 5-7 at a time. ISU's DL has to play well for ISU to have a chance.
TO refute your opinion: Its funny that you put the entire responsibility of this game on our DL....lets put it this way, if our DL play this game and Klein and Knott are causing turnovers and knocking the snott out of your fumble prone rb - then maybe this is more of a wash then your simplistic opinion.
#2: Steele Jantz. I see a lot of talk about Coker's fumbles, and while that is undoubtedly a problem for Iowa to monitor, Jantz threw three picks last week against UNI and will be starting in his first ever game against a BCS caliber defense. If Jantz throws three picks on Saturday it puts ISU's defense, already in a bad position, in a bigger hole. Jantz needs to have a good game Saturday and throw 1 or fewer INT's for ISU to really be in the game IMO.
No doubt but if he only threw three picks that would actually give us two more possessions to score because in both of the past two seasons when your DL was incredible we threw 5 interceptions both games...This can be easily turned around to say that if Vandenberg does not throw better then he did in his last game that we will have the three interceptions. His windows for completions will be tighter with this being only the third BCS level defense he's faced!
#3: ISU's rushing attack. If ISU can run the ball and take the pressure off of Jantz, this game could be much closer than I think it will be. Above everything else, ISU has to run the ball successfully on Saturday to have a chance. Throwing the ball has two negatives: 1. It exposes a young QB to potentially making game altering mistakes & 2. It will keep ISU's defense on the field longer. Without any doubt, ISU's biggest key to victory on Saturday is a successful rushing attack. I do think that Iowa's defense will be more susceptible to the run this year than the pass, so ISU needs to take advantage of that. Can they? No one knows. Last week ISU's OL was without their two best players, but there is certainly a cause for concern about the other three starters, who didn't look great.
Ironic that you indicate that if we can run it that the game will be closer - not that we will have the edge...Furthermore, you as well as every other hawk fan acts as if you still have Stanzi back there....Your young qb will be reaped in pressure for this game...he's an iowa kid he will have more pressure then some cocky california kid....Vandenberg could buckle the same way that your boy Tate did a couple of years ago....
Now a real perspective....we have two defenses that are pretty good, ISU's give up a bit more yards but, the difficult thing to determine is how good Iowa really is....TTech is horrible and they knew coming in this was for a loss and a paycheck.....Whereas this same team took Iowa to the limit and now those kids are seniors....think they're better or worse then three years ago when they did the same thing to iowa that they did to iowa state only to lose the game!
The question for me is the Offenses....iowa showed a lot more explosion, but that was against a sold old 8 man front all day....no wonder Vander-whatever threw for 250, he had wide wide open guys all night. I venture to say not many hawkeye fans nor players believe that any of the iowa receivers will have that easy of a night the rest of the season....that was your cupcake and you did what you should have done. ISU was exposed...we dont have a an identify right now on offense...we showed promise at the end of the game...Jantz proved something there at the end. Will it be better with 3 of his 5 starters back on the OL maybe, maybe not...Our OL needs to play better, not dominate by any means, they simply need to slow Iowas Line down. If they can do that, then we will get a true evaluation of Jantz. otherwise we will have a schewed rushing number because the number of rushing yards jantz will have based on scrambles. And that leads me to the one facet that may be the big difference between these two qb's. Steele can flat out run......not so much with vanderbilt....hes stationary and a sitting duck....stanzi was surprisingly mobile and had absolutely great pocket presence...his abilities will be showcased from here on out as iowas schedule get serious, people will one day wish they had stanzi back!!!!
Hoping for a great game with ISU pulling it out - 24-21