When you're 20 games under .500 over the past three seasons, continuity in style is really important. Would hate to see an offense like the one I watched today get out of their comfort zone.
SOURCE- Campbell signs with ISU
- Thread starter SoapyCy
- Start date
Looking at advanced stats (S&P, FEI, FEI+), Toledo was a 100+ level program for 3-4 years before Campbell started there in 2009 as an OL coach and Run Game Coordinator. After that:
[TABLE="class: grid, width: 500"]
[TR]
[TD]Year[/TD]
[TD]Campbell's Position[/TD]
[TD]Toledo Record[/TD]
[TD]Toledo Adv Stat Rank[/TD]
[TD]ISU Adv Stat Rank[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2009[/TD]
[TD]OL/RGC[/TD]
[TD]5-7[/TD]
[TD]106[/TD]
[TD]82[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2010[/TD]
[TD]OL/OC[/TD]
[TD]8-5[/TD]
[TD]76[/TD]
[TD]75[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2011[/TD]
[TD]OL/OC[/TD]
[TD]9-4[/TD]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD]63[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2012[/TD]
[TD]HC[/TD]
[TD]9-4[/TD]
[TD]61[/TD]
[TD]49[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2013[/TD]
[TD]HC[/TD]
[TD]7-5[/TD]
[TD]62[/TD]
[TD]78[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2014[/TD]
[TD]HC[/TD]
[TD]9-4[/TD]
[TD]59[/TD]
[TD]92[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2015*[/TD]
[TD]HC[/TD]
[TD]9-1[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]74[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
* Only through games on Nov 21.
I prefer to use advanced stats over polls because it accounts for SOS and uses play-by-play or drive-by-drive data to objectively grade a team's performance. So it looks like Campbell HAS helped build a program as one of the primary coaches during the original build (2009 - 2011), and then was able to keep the team competitive for a few years before beginning another run this year.
I went back and looked at Campbell relative to the analysis I posted earlier, and he's definitely got history coaching up talent. In both 2011 and 2015, Toledo had a Massey Composite that was significantly higher than what was reflected in their recruiting rankings. In the rest of the seasons they did about what was expected. In general, Toledo's average season was about 10 spots higher than talent alone would have predicted. In 2/7 seasons (29%) they had a breakout year, finishing 40 to 50 spots higher than predicted. In other words, Toledo recruits at a #70 FBS level team on average, but typically performs like a #60 team and, every four years, like a #20 - #30 team.
[TABLE="class: grid, width: 500"]
[TR]
[TD]Year[/TD]
[TD]Campbell's Position[/TD]
[TD]Toledo Record[/TD]
[TD]Toledo Adv Stat Rank[/TD]
[TD]ISU Adv Stat Rank[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2009[/TD]
[TD]OL/RGC[/TD]
[TD]5-7[/TD]
[TD]106[/TD]
[TD]82[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2010[/TD]
[TD]OL/OC[/TD]
[TD]8-5[/TD]
[TD]76[/TD]
[TD]75[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2011[/TD]
[TD]OL/OC[/TD]
[TD]9-4[/TD]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD]63[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2012[/TD]
[TD]HC[/TD]
[TD]9-4[/TD]
[TD]61[/TD]
[TD]49[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2013[/TD]
[TD]HC[/TD]
[TD]7-5[/TD]
[TD]62[/TD]
[TD]78[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2014[/TD]
[TD]HC[/TD]
[TD]9-4[/TD]
[TD]59[/TD]
[TD]92[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2015*[/TD]
[TD]HC[/TD]
[TD]9-1[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]74[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
* Only through games on Nov 21.
I prefer to use advanced stats over polls because it accounts for SOS and uses play-by-play or drive-by-drive data to objectively grade a team's performance. So it looks like Campbell HAS helped build a program as one of the primary coaches during the original build (2009 - 2011), and then was able to keep the team competitive for a few years before beginning another run this year.
I went back and looked at Campbell relative to the analysis I posted earlier, and he's definitely got history coaching up talent. In both 2011 and 2015, Toledo had a Massey Composite that was significantly higher than what was reflected in their recruiting rankings. In the rest of the seasons they did about what was expected. In general, Toledo's average season was about 10 spots higher than talent alone would have predicted. In 2/7 seasons (29%) they had a breakout year, finishing 40 to 50 spots higher than predicted. In other words, Toledo recruits at a #70 FBS level team on average, but typically performs like a #60 team and, every four years, like a #20 - #30 team.
Not thrilled one bit about this hire (IMO) :skeptical:
Big12 defenses are "day and night" different from MAC defenses.
He better bring in a very good DC, not to mention a good recruiter.
I also think JP basically rehired CPR all over again.
Yeah, he beat an overrated #18 Arkansas team (at the time...) and nobody after that. What other "quality" wins does he have??? ISU wasn't a quality win. Cole's missed FG had absolutely nothing to do with Toledo's defense. I would've been happier with P.J. Fleck, or Georgia Southern's HC. or many others! Campbell brings nothing to the table, again (IMO) Hope I'm eating crow someday, (although I never have) Just gonna sit back now and wonder when the 1st, "Fire Coach Campbell" thread will pop up.
Big12 defenses are "day and night" different from MAC defenses.
He better bring in a very good DC, not to mention a good recruiter.
I also think JP basically rehired CPR all over again.
Yeah, he beat an overrated #18 Arkansas team (at the time...) and nobody after that. What other "quality" wins does he have??? ISU wasn't a quality win. Cole's missed FG had absolutely nothing to do with Toledo's defense. I would've been happier with P.J. Fleck, or Georgia Southern's HC. or many others! Campbell brings nothing to the table, again (IMO) Hope I'm eating crow someday, (although I never have) Just gonna sit back now and wonder when the 1st, "Fire Coach Campbell" thread will pop up.
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Have some rep, I love the work you put into this and it gets me more excited for coach Campbell. especially the bolded area.
That was smart on Toledo's part. It establishes them as leaders in their conference and willing to take a shot. I bet they wind up with a talented, up-and-coming replacement.
I respectfully wish that we not play Toledo in the future. They have a history of making good decisions and performing on the field. Plus they have that (kinda sorta) cool stadium and have had success over the last decade. I heard Eastern Michigan is looking to fill in a few future dates...
LOL. "The only mistake I've ever made is that one time I thought I made a mistake"
Kind of wanted to see Scott Frost (...get interviewed anyway) ...and before people berate me with, crap like, "He's never been a Head Coach!" just remember neither was Paul Rhoades before he came here. Neither was Chizik, neither was Dan McCarney. Jim Walden was a HC at WSU from '78-'86 with only 3 (marginal) winning seasons, before coming here. My point is that nearly every "successful" football coach in (P5) or w/e came from an assistant position. I like the resumes of a lot of these assistants that ultimately will be given a chance and wonderfully succeed. I just feel JP went out and plopped down a couple of million in front of Campbell and said... well... (I have no clue what he said!)
Who has Matt Campbell recruited that was headed elsewhere. What big name player was taken from some other national power and decided to go to Toledo, Ohio??? I can't think of anyone either. Now then, what's going to happen when he walks into some recruits livingroom, and says, "Come play for me at ISU... Don't go to Alabama or Clemson, or Oregon, they're no good." YES! there are asst. coaches out there that can steal recruits from some major football programs! Kind of like TJ Otz is with our basketball program. These people are out there! I just wish Jamie would've put forth a bit more hard work, and thoroughly investigated all (if not more) options! $2.5 mil buys an aweful lot of coach these days. In the grand scheme of things, I just feel we hired a Paul Rhoads / Dan McCarney type of guy all over again.
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As for the bolded, I think that was the point. To get someone that actually has head coaching experience, unlike those last three who all were either let go or left under not so good circumstances.
As for your last paragraph, it would be a massive waste of funds for an ISU coach to go after the same players Alabama or Oregon are going after, unless there's a natural strong ISU tie ala Lazard. Almost as much of a waste it would be for a Toledo coach to. Those aren't the players we're competing for, and if the staff couldn't recognize that and would continue to waste resources on it, that's when I'd start to be worried.
I think I get what you are saying... Not sure we're exactly blowing money going after recruits, and Cam Newton isn't a good example, but that is "sort of" my point. I feel we could have researched it a little better, and brought in a coach whos resume speaks volumes better than Campbell's. Now I fear we're just going to get more of the same. (past 20 years or so)
Interesting stuff.. Of course from 2009-2011, Tim Beckman was the head coach. I wouldn't hire anyone who coached under that *******.
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This. Our buddy Uben was quite wrong with this tweet
David Ubben @davidubben Nov 22
On Paul Rhoads' dismissal, which isn't necessarily a mistake, but will reveal a new, uncomfortable reality for ISU: http://*******/1Omj5Vv
What do you expect from a guy who refused to even visit Ames?
Meh. Time will tell I suppose. Would've preferred someone with P5 experience in both coaching and recruiting. Tim Beckman left him with some good recruits when he left Toledo, so not sure if the last few seasons there were all him or partly because of Beckman ... similar to what Chizik left Rhoads. Again, time will tell.
If Matt Campbell has the success that old man Snyder has had.....He can stay 2 lifetimes as far as I'm concerned....
Is this the greatest hire in the world...dunno.....
I do know this is a Solid Coach with a pedigree that will work at ISU...Welcome to Iowa State Matt.....Here is wishing you tremendous success.
To put this hire into perspective just remember.....That our Illustrious AD Max Urick turned down Bill Snyder and Glen Mason and Hired Jimmie Dean Walden....How did that turn out? Zero wins in 1994.......
Hopefully Campbell can take us to the upper half of the conference every 3 or 4 years and also to a darned good bowl game
Welcome to ISU Matt ............
Glad we got him. He was my #1 out of the potential candidates. Hopefully the AD opens up the pocketbook to assemble an experienced staff.