Some Jon Rothstein tweets from ISU practice

[swarthmoreCY]

How can anyone be pessimistic about this year? What an idiot. The most experience Fred has ever returned. The most depth Fred has ever had. The most height he's ever had.

Honestly, you'd have to think Fred is a horrible coach to think this is even a bubble team. We are waaaay too stacked.

Were Ejim and Kane All-Americans going into last year? No.

Hopefully you are a lot better at your basketball predictions than football.

Pessimistic about the year? No. Think that being a bubble team is within the range of possible outcomes for the team? Yes. I never said it was the most probable outcome, which is typically what people go with when giving their predictions. The difference between 2012-13 and last year was winning close games, of which Kane and Ejim were huge. Obviously there are reasons for optimism that what they brought has been replaced, but extrapolation always has the risk of not being true.

Only and idiot would say that it would take Fred to be a horrible coach for this to be a bubble team. No, it would mean we are a bit behind last year (check how many close games we won) after losing a couple All-Americans, including the Big 12 POY.

 

[mcblogerson]

The "big 3" isn't some exclusive recipe for success. Ejim was a great garbage man but his production is easily replaced. While unkowns as far as scoring production, Mckay and Nader offer more fexibility, depth and athleticism than Ejim.

Hogue, Niang, and Naz will be improved from last year.

Morris and Thomas should make a big jump from their fresh year.

BDJ isn't an unkown, he's a proven D1 scorer with NBA potential. Niang, Morris and BDJ will be the offensive facilitators.

Last year our bench was Naz, Thomas and spot minutes from Edozie. This year it'll probably be Nader, Naz, Thomas and maybe Custer. Edozie, SDW and GT getting spot minutes. That's a huge bonus from last year. Now they can press on D, not worry about foul trouble and match up better in the post with longer teams like Kansas and TX. It all adds up to a better overall team with fewer question marks than any team Freds had here.

 

[Cydkar]

We lost so much, and not just in terns of stats. If we make the NCAA tournament for the 4th time in Fred's 5 years I will be fairly content. If we get in, we have the talent for anything to happen, a bit like UConn a season ago.

This isn't the football board. There is no contentment here. It's all about lofty goals on this board.

 

[RandomFan]

Hopefully you are a lot better at your basketball predictions than football.

Pessimistic about the year? No. Think that being a bubble team is within the range of possible outcomes for the team? Yes. I never said it was the most probable outcome, which is typically what people go with when giving their predictions. The difference between 2012-13 and last year was winning close games, of which Kane and Ejim were huge. Obviously there are reasons for optimism that what they brought has been replaced, but extrapolation always has the risk of not being true.

Only and idiot would say that it would take Fred to be a horrible coach for this to be a bubble team. No, it would mean we are a bit behind last year (check how many close games we won) after losing a couple All-Americans, including the Big 12 POY.

A bit behind last year? No. We were no where near a bubble team last year. We were a top 10-15 team last year. Yeah, we won quite a few close games. We did that despite only playing 7 guys, none of whom were over 6'7". Those two hindrances have been fixed this year.

Is it possible we're a bubble team this year? Sure. It's also possible we win 0 games or that Bill Self admits to paying refs. All possibilities, none of which are very likely to become reality.

 

[bawbie]

Without adding anyone, last year's team sans Ejim and Kane is not even a bubble team imo.

That is a completely ridiculous statement on so many levels.

But to start with, I actually do think a rotation of:
Morris-Naz-Thomas-Hogue-Niang-SDW-Edozie is one post player away from being a legit NCAA team.

good thing we are adding 3 post players this year...

Like I hinted at in my original post, I could see us on or close to the bubble, yet be one of those teams talented enough at making a run for Indy.

Ah, we are starting with the "every team that isn't a top 5 seed is on the bubble" mentality extra early this year. Just to clarify: UConn last year wasn't a bubble team, and ISU in 2012-2013 wasn't a bubble team.

Edozie is more physically gifted than Georges.

Edozie is a better athlete than Georges, but he's not a more physically gifted basketball player. I think you are confusing the two terms.

 

[swarthmoreCY]

What you aren't taking into account is the fact that EVERY team loses key components. You seem to think we will regress to the bubble because we lost key players. Every team has to deal with this. It's not like every other team in the nation is standing pat with returners and we are the only team who has to replace key guys.

No, not every team has to deal with losing their top players. You seem new to CBB, but if you pay attention you will hear commentators mention from time to time when talking about a good team that "they have everyone back".

Absolutely attrition happens in college basketball. This may be too difficult for you to grasp, but guess why some teams are not as good as the previous year? Not all teams are as good as they were the year before, and there is a strong correlation to those teams being ones that lost a conference POY and AA level players. Of course, there are exceptions when teams get better after losing those type of guys, and hopefully this is that case. Imo there is a reasonable chance it is not, and we will not be as good as last year.

 

[Rural]

Kill this thread.

 

[wonkadog]

Anybody have dinner with Rothstein at Hickory Park tonight?

Does sitting at the table next to him and Hoiberg count?

 

[mcblogerson]

No, not every team has to deal with losing their top players. You seem new to CBB, but if you pay attention you will hear commentators mention from time to time when talking about a good team that "they have everyone back".

Absolutely attrition happens in college basketball. This may be too difficult for you to grasp, but guess why some teams are not as good as the previous year? Not all teams are as good as they were the year before, and there is a strong correlation to those teams being ones that lost a conference POY and AA level players. Of course, there are exceptions when teams get better after losing those type of guys, and hopefully this is that case. Imo there is a reasonable chance it is not, and we will not be as good as last year.

So what you're saying is you're not sure if Kansas will be good b/c they lost 2 NBA lottery picks. I'm guessing you're rebuttal is that they're replacing them with talented players. Then my answer will be, "yeah, so is Fred". Then you can stop trying to refill this debbie downer hole you dug.

 

[swarthmoreCY]

Edozie is a better athlete than Georges, but he's not a more physically gifted basketball player. I think you are confusing the two terms.

No, that is exactly the point. A poster said BDJ is the most physically gifted player. Big deal. How physically gifted a player is in itself means little. It does make for great media day sound bites and off-season speculation.

 

[CyTwins]

So what you're saying is you're not sure if Kansas will be good b/c they lost 2 NBA lottery picks. I'm guessing you're rebuttal is that they're replacing them with talented players. Then my answer will be, "yeah, so is Fred". Then you can stop trying to refill this debbie downer hole you dug.

Kansas, Kentucky and Iowa State all lost way too much talent not to be on the bubble this year. Heck I'd be content with an NIT championship this year since we lost Ejim and Kane

 

[swarthmoreCY]

So what you're saying is you're not sure if Kansas will be good b/c they lost 2 NBA lottery picks. I'm guessing you're rebuttal is that they're replacing them with talented players. Then my answer will be, "yeah, so is Fred". Then you can stop trying to refill this debbie downer hole you dug.

Wow, you really got me. Kentucky last year too!

Well darn, if KU is thought to be as good as a year ago, there is no chance we will not be as good as a year ago.

 

[bawbie]

No, not every team has to deal with losing their top players. You seem new to CBB, but if you pay attention you will hear commentators mention from time to time when talking about a good team that "they have everyone back".

Absolutely attrition happens in college basketball. This may be too difficult for you to grasp, but guess why some teams are not as good as the previous year? Not all teams are as good as they were the year before, and there is a strong correlation to those teams being ones that lost a conference POY and AA level players. Of course, there are exceptions when teams get better after losing those type of guys, and hopefully this is that case. Imo there is a reasonable chance it is not, and we will not be as good as last year.

I think this is an appropriate time to trot out my roster comparison again:

Morris -> Morris - Monte's only getting better
Kane -> BDJ - BDJ is a different player, and won't average 15-5-5, but he doesn't need to
Hogue -> Nader - Nader will take over the role of "glue guy" with no plays ran for him
Ejim -> Hogue - I think they are similar players, with Hogue being much more athletic
Niang -> Niang - Georges is a preseason All American, something neither Ejim or Kane were last year
Naz -> Naz - Same role as last year, only better
Thomas -> Thomas
??? -> McKay

That is the transition of the 7-man rotation from last year, with the completely new addition of McKay, who fits a role we didn't have before.

Sure there are unknowns. THERE ARE UNKNOWNS WITH EVERY TEAM. you are being pessimistic to the point of trolling.

This team is a Top 25 team. Anything else would be a disappointment of a season.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Hopefully you are a lot better at your basketball predictions than football.

Pessimistic about the year? No. Think that being a bubble team is within the range of possible outcomes for the team? Yes. I never said it was the most probable outcome, which is typically what people go with when giving their predictions. The difference between 2012-13 and last year was winning close games, of which Kane and Ejim were huge. Obviously there are reasons for optimism that what they brought has been replaced, but extrapolation always has the risk of not being true.

Only and idiot would say that it would take Fred to be a horrible coach for this to be a bubble team. No, it would mean we are a bit behind last year (check how many close games we won) after losing a couple All-Americans, including the Big 12 POY.

Niang and Naz are pretty deadly in close games, as history proves. Morris/Thomas each hit some "hit or die" threes last year, too, and I imagine BDJ/Nader as crafty scorers might have similar roles.

So much of this is, indeed, luck--these guys can play random games, weird referring, weird gyms, and a millimeter can matter in shooting. I would have to think our "luck/skill" in close games might have to regress to the mean, at least a little bit, given nobody goes 10-0 in close games (not that we did).

I'd hope we were just better overall to where we don't have to play such close games so often or depend on comebacks from low win-percentages constantly. Those are fun and exciting, and there had to be a psychology on our team that we could do that but, yeah, I really wish we really didn't have to.

 

[Guetterdone1]

At the end of the game last year who did we give the ball to? That man is back. That's all you need to know.

 

[00clone]

Hopefully you are a lot better at your basketball predictions than football.

Pessimistic about the year? No. Think that being a bubble team is within the range of possible outcomes for the team? Yes. I never said it was the most probable outcome, which is typically what people go with when giving their predictions. The difference between 2012-13 and last year was winning close games, of which Kane and Ejim were huge. Obviously there are reasons for optimism that what they brought has been replaced, but extrapolation always has the risk of not being true.

Only and idiot would say that it would take Fred to be a horrible coach for this to be a bubble team. No, it would mean we are a bit behind last year (check how many close games we won) after losing a couple All-Americans, including the Big 12 POY.

So first, you have to stop comparing the results of last year's team with the predictions of this year's team, that's not fair. So, you can't say we are a bubble team because we don't have any AA or POY's...we didn't going into last year either.

Second, realize you're calling the entirety of the sports media idiots with that bolded part, right? Because last year we were on no radars for preseason top 25 polls, and this year, we're in a lot of top 15-20's.

And I'd hope, that with the plethora of people arguing with you, and pretty much no one agreeing with you, you'd realize you're just wrong and stop arguing, but if not, I hope the rest of us realize you're too far gone to bother arguing with, cuz this is getting dumb.

 

[Bret44]

Just imagine - you've got 4 guys who can attack the rim, and a 7'1" guy shooting 3s from the corner.

 

[mj4cy]

Did Fred mention in the interview if he was going to start heavily recruit the Sioux City area?

 

[acgclone]

Hopefully you are a lot better at your basketball predictions than football.

Pessimistic about the year? No. Think that being a bubble team is within the range of possible outcomes for the team? Yes. I never said it was the most probable outcome, which is typically what people go with when giving their predictions. The difference between 2012-13 and last year was winning close games, of which Kane and Ejim were huge. Obviously there are reasons for optimism that what they brought has been replaced, but extrapolation always has the risk of not being true.

Only and idiot would say that it would take Fred to be a horrible coach for this to be a bubble team. No, it would mean we are a bit behind last year (check how many close games we won) after losing a couple All-Americans, including the Big 12 POY.

I agree that being a bubble team is within the realm of possibilities, but it's at the very low end. A bubble team is at the "trainwreck" end of our range.

 

[Guetterdone1]

Anyone that's arguing about us winning close games last year remember Naz probably won us 4 games last year from late game performances.