So you're telling me there's a chance...

[harimad]

According to 538, we and Auburn are the only 3-loss teams with a chance to make the playoff. Hail Mary chance, but still...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-college-football-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Edit: 4% chance st CFP if we win out.

 

[CysRage]

According to 538, we and Auburn are the only 3-loss teams with a chance to make the playoff. Hail Mary chance, but still...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-college-football-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Edit: 4% chance st CFP if we win out.

I think it reads as a 4% chance at winning the conference and less than 1% chance to make CFP. So yes, this is a perfect Lloyd Christmas moment.

 

[CyCloned]

I would love to just get to the Big 12 Championship game. That loss to TCU is going to sting for awhile. The Iowa loss hurts, but the team was complete out of sync on offense in that game. Need for some other teams to lose to even get close to sniffing that game.

 

[harimad]

I think it reads as a 4% chance at winning the conference and less than 1% chance to make CFP. So yes, this is a perfect Lloyd Christmas moment.

Nope. 82% chance to win conference, 4% to make CFP.

Edit: 62% conf. My eyes are bad.

 

[CysRage]

Nope. 82% chance to win conference, 4% to make CFP.

Got it. It defaults to showing your chances as of right now but you can forecast your chance based on if you win out.

 

[khardbored]

Obligatory . . .

 

[StLouisClone]

Last year Auburn and ISU were the 2 loss teams (5-2) with the best chance of making the playoffs. Auburn went to 10-2 and would have made the playoff if they had beat Georgia in the SEC championship.

 

[StLouisClone]

According to 538, we and Auburn are the only 3-loss teams with a chance to make the playoff. Hail Mary chance, but still...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-college-football-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Edit: 4% chance st CFP if we win out.

4% chance at winning conference.
< 1% chance of making CFP.
4% chance of winning out.

 

[madguy30]

CFP....just get to 6 wins and the rest is gravy, haha.

 

[harimad]

4% chance at winning conference.
< 1% chance of making CFP.
4% chance of winning out.

Uh... ?!?! Gonna just tear my hair out now.
Look upthread.

 

[Clonehomer]

Stop it. There is no chance. The committee is not going to choose a 3 loss ISU team. Even if the top teams implode, they will find a bigger name to prop up.

 

[JM4CY]

There's a 100% chance the one year we get close we will end up 5th at best because that's how we get screwed

 

[Cyclonepride]

I'd give us the same chance that a 5 loss Ohio State team would have.

 

[CNECloneFan]

I'd give us the same chance that a 5 loss Ohio State team would have.

We would need to have 2 losses or less in order to get in before a 5 loss Ohio State.

 

[harimad]

Stop it. There is no chance. The committee is not going to choose a 3 loss ISU team. Even if the top teams implode, they will find a bigger name to prop up.

You are not the boss of me!

 

[junckerl]

If you click on Iowa and Iowa State both winning out, you literally break the system.

 

[SciClone]

After this weekend, what percentage chance does ISU have of making the Big XII title game?

 

[harimad]

If you click on Iowa and Iowa State both winning out, you literally break the system.

lol, you're right. I just looked a little closer at something else on that page. If you sort by ELO rating, we're at #24 and right in the middle of the pack. I like the ELO ranking system.

 

[harimad]

After this weekend, what percentage chance does ISU have of making the Big XII title game?

Obviously we have to win out to have any chance whatsoever.

We'd have the tiebreaker on Texas, so we'd need Oklahoma and TCU to both get one more loss.

Anyone check my math on this?

 

[SoapyCy]

this board is funny