It’s more a bet against your OL and Purdy, to be honest. I don’t think the OL can consistently block Iowa’s DL on long passing plays, which should lead to sacks, holding penalties, and Purdy forcing some bad throws. I also don’t think Purdy has proven that he can consistently make accurate throws downfield to receivers that aren’t Hakeem Butler.
What Purdy has proven is that he is super accurate in the short passing game. I’d rather take my chances with the vertical passing game than watch Jones catch 10 passes on a drag route with a LB covering him.