The more I think about it, I think Royce's draft stock is as high this year as it ever will be.
Skills: Seems to be the overriding theme here that people think he needs to develop more of a 15 foot jumper....my question to those people is, if he hasn't already by now, how much more development could you expect between now and next year? And if you do expect improvement, how much of a difference would there be between his development here, and with an NBA team. I doubt there's much difference.
Age: He's now 3 yrs out of high school. If he stays one more year, he'd be coming out the same year as guys who have completed their senior yrs in college which by NBA standards is considered old. Obviously scouts will at that point look at him with less of a ceiling than a guy with similar game who's just a sophomore.
Having said all that, the draft this year looks to be deep. If you're Royce and feel like Fred is doing a good job of developing you as a player, do you declare and take the risk without the promise of a 1st round pick? Also, he seems really comfortable in Ames, and perhaps mentally Ames is what he needs right now.
I think he stays another year and takes another look at it next year, even though he's probably more attractive to scouts now than he ever will be.