Because FSU games vs a SEC schedule are worth way more than FSU games vs an ACC schedule.
Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)
- Thread starter ISUcyclones11
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They ain't worth that much more. That's not even including ESPN not having the cash for that (which is why realignment stopped this time).
I don't think FSU has a plan other than get out of the ACC deal and then we'll get more money, even though there's not much, if any money, left in the networks. If they had a landing spot lined up, I think you'd hear other schools talking about it as well. I think there's a very real chance FSU ends up like SDSU did this year.
Scheer taking the opportunity to spike the football.
Except that is only true for a couple games, if that. They rarely will play all of the top teams every year. So you put Georgia in place of ND, difference is marginal, Florida replaces Clemson, etc. Are there more high calibur games in the SEC, sure, but they wont play all of those High caliber teams every year. So In the end, is playing Mississippi any different than playing Virginia?
Not enough to double the value.
California may have an ocean and mountains but their gas stations are nasty.
It isn't about playing top teams, it's about advertising rates that ESPN can charge for SEC games vs. ACC games. There's a financial reason why ESPN is paying the SEC $60M+ per team and the ACC much less (even on an old deal).
Additionally, FSU and Clemson are probably the only two ACC schools that move the media rights investment needle for ESPN or FOX. So sure ESPN is probably comfortable paying FSU $20M to be in the ACC, but are they willing to risk losing FSU to FOX/Big10. So paying FSU a lot more to be in the SEC, keeps a big brand under ESPN's control.
But seems to me FSU is staying put for a couple years unless they have an easy out. Wait and see what happens to Notre Dame and their new deal. And what does the CFP media rights partner environment look like for 2026 season?
It’s honestly a real debate though how valuable Florida State would be for ESPN going from ACC to SEC solely to not lose them to Fox and the Big Ten. ESPN already has an insane ratings set up with the SEC once OU and Texas arrive. They already have Florida, so sure, having the Seminoles would be additional frosting on the cake but we aren’t talking Notre Dame here. That would be the one school in today’s media climate with the lack of money that ESPN and Fox would still pay premium money for.
Also, not that I think it’s going to happen, but it’s not like leagues are locked into tv partners. Just because the Big Ten is Fox now doesn’t mean in 15-20 years ESPN doesn’t get back into the fold.
A lot of moving pieces because IF Florida State gets out of the ACC, ESPN is going to have to figure out how to basically work on breaking up that conference because if they lose FSU and even one more brand, that amazing deal they have with the ACC is actually a great deal for the remaining ACC schools then because at that point that conference isn’t worth $30M per team or whatever it ends up being as we get into the last several years of the deal.
I agree, but point is, ESPN holds rights to both conferences. And it is not a significant enough increase in ad value for FSU to move to the SEC, at this point.
They are happy paying them half as much to be in the ACC, and dont believe moving them to the SEC is worth paying double. The games are not that much of an increase in ad value.
I believe we are saying the same thing just in different ways. Ad revenue/value is of course what it is about.
My guess is they either dont believe FSU has a real way out, whether that is because of the GoR, or because the B1G doesnt have enough interest to add them at this point. Or they dont see FSU as a huge loss if they do go to the B1G.
I do believe if things actually start to move, ESPN and the SEC will get involved, but they are content with where they are right now. This could change if the ACC does start to break apart.
I also think if the SEC starts to get interest in expansion again, we should be worried about losing a couple teams from the Big 12 as well. I feel there may be a few more valuable teams in the B12 than some of the ACC especially when you get beyond the top couple.
The other thing is not all realignment is created equal. When USC/UCLA and OuT left, it was secret deals and those schools got PAID. Because the networks were the ones pulling the strings on those. The networks have shown how they operate, and it's not publicly.
The Pac12 falling apart this year happened very publicly because it was the conferences and schools driving it. The networks clearly did not want it, considering what Oregon and Washington took half of what the other Big10 schools got and the Big12 not forcing the other 2 pro ratas to keep ESPN happy (which makes me wonder why/who those were for if not the schools we got).
The networks don't want to pay more for FSU, otherwise it would have been done already or being done silently in the background.
FSU is completely different due to the ACC GOR, not because the networks don’t want to move FSU. PAC GOR expires after this season. B12 GOR expires in 2 years and OUT had to buy out of it for one season. ACC GOR has 12 years left.
Yea the Pac12 was in play if they couldn't get a media deal to make teams happy.
The 12 team CFP media rights deal goes out to open bid for 2026 season. The 11 game playoff is projected to be worth upwards of $2 BILLION annually. Think about it, the entire BIG10 deal is around $1.1B annually. I would think ESPN and FOX are going to limit their investment over the next couple years to ensure they are broadcast partners for the CFP.
Plus, what if Notre Dame doesn't re-sign with NBC? I would think FOX (w or w/o Big10), CBS, ESPN or streamers wouod have interest.
These two media deals are givens and will have significant impact on CFB landscape.
I was dubious of the 2 billion projection, but you’re spot on. ESPN pays 2.7 billion for Monday night football and they will actually get a Super Bowl out of it in the future. Those games get about 15 mil viewers/game. Looks like the CFP games got around 21-22 mil viewers. So an inventory of 11 games instead of 17 and an occasional nfl playoff game would be right around 2 billion. GK would ask for 8 billion and then tell everyone that 500 million is a great deal, but we’ll see where it lands.
Commentary: Schulz's advisory committee created solely to sell WSU's new fiscal imperative
No matter path WSU athletics follows, $20 million-plus needed annually to fill chasm
247sports.com
https://frontofficesports.com/apple-can-steamroll-its-way-into-live-sports-by-buying-espn/
This would be the injection of cash that is needed to kick realignment back off in a big way
This would be the injection of cash that is needed to kick realignment back off in a big way
In their most recent podcast Ourand and Marchand were suspect that the CFP would get that in today’s media climate. They weren’t very bullish on how some of those first-round matchups would rate
I hate to say it but if a Pac 12 with Oregon, Washington, Arizona, ASU, and Utah could only muster $25 million per year all streaming, a Pac 12 without those schools won’t even sniff $20 million.Commentary: Schulz's advisory committee created solely to sell WSU's new fiscal imperative
No matter path WSU athletics follows, $20 million-plus needed annually to fill chasm
Sounds like their committee is designed to generate support for the university to cover the gap.
Love that guy. I'm going to really enjoy him being a part of the Big 12.