Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[Gonzo]

What risk would there be for those teams? Right now say each team is getting $100 X 18 teams, so 1.8 billion, Fox tells them, how would you like to go "say 9/10 teams at the same 1.8 billion per year". So, Ohio State doubles their payout, and Fox gets better games for the same amount. The losers are the 9 teams that do not make the cut, but Fox is gambling that they can reform those left over teams, and use the money from say the B12 or ACC to pay for it.
Premium games every week from the top 32 teams, and use the other games as fillers in their TV schedule, all done without costing FOX or ESPN any more money.

Like I said, one of the big risks is that they wind up in the bottom half of the new superconference and eventually get left out in the cold by the programs in the top half who no longer want to subsidize .500 and sub-.500 programs. That's the exact reason you're saying this whole superconference thing would happen in the first place... tOSU, Michigan, Bama, Georgia, LSU, etc. not wanting to carry dead weight and share with the likes of NW, Iowa, Indiana, Vandy, etc. So why wouldn't that threat also exist in a newly formed superconference?

 

[MeowingCows]

all this talk about a super league and i just dont see it. i think ND has it figured out and already developed the model that the other big dogs will run with.

eventually Ohio St and Alabama and Texas etc, will just go independent, agree to yearly games with the other independents, sell these games ala carte for huge dollars, they will buy home games (5-10 million per game for the visiting team) with some of the teams that stay in conferences. and they will cash giant checks.

maybe a super league will form out of the remnants of the conferences.

Oh joy, the future pay-per-view format of CFB. That'll be fun.

It's sad that this is a realistic possibility.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

Like I said, one of the big risks is that they wind up in the bottom half of the new superconference and eventually get left out in the cold by the programs in the top half who no longer want to subsidize .500 and sub-.500 programs. That's the exact reason you're saying this whole superconference thing would happen in the first place... tOSU, Michigan, Bama, Georgia, LSU, etc. not wanting to carry dead weight and share with the likes of NW, Iowa, Indiana, Vandy, etc. So why wouldn't that threat also exist in a newly formed superconference?

These teams will join because none of them think that they are going to be one of the teams that will have the losing record year after year. Currently like Nebraska does, has it stopped them from giving up hope that they will return to the good Ol days? Has it affected their attendance over there in Lincoln.

Big Easy fans of the lesser schools are banking on the idea that the Ohio State's need them to continue to win at a high level, and its a foolish thought. Because none of the blue blood schools think they are going to be losing games, and if they do, they will have the money to fire their coach and start over. Just the price of doing business.

 

[JM4CY]

This is an interesting thread lol

 

[AuH2O]

all this talk about a super league and i just dont see it. i think ND has it figured out and already developed the model that the other big dogs will run with.

eventually Ohio St and Alabama and Texas etc, will just go independent, agree to yearly games with the other independents, sell these games ala carte for huge dollars, they will buy home games (5-10 million per game for the visiting team) with some of the teams that stay in conferences. and they will cash giant checks.

maybe a super league will form out of the remnants of the conferences.

This makes some sense.

One thing sort of related to your mention of a la carte games - I'm starting to think streaming lessens the gap in viewers between big brands and lesser valuable media brands.

If a game is already available OTA or through a current subscription, Ohio State, Alabama, etc. are going to get massive viewership. But it's not like these 8 million people watching are mostly people who are fans of those teams. It's a ton of casual viewers.

It definitely seems like a league like the Big 12 or it's media partners would have a pretty good idea of what the league or individual teams could expect if they had a subscription-heavy model. All of the teams have spent a good number of games on the ESPN2, FS1/2, and streaming via ESPN or Fox. There's enough data to know roughly how many "diehard" fans you might expect that would proactively seek out and pay for the games.

Not that Ohio State or Alabama would need or want to do something other than sell it a la carte to a linear partner, but I'm curious what would happen if say, Alabama-Georgia or Ohio State Michigan was PPV, or Peacock or something like that. I just wonder if these big names that get so many casual viewers lose a bit of their viewership advantage in a model that requires more proactive consumers.

 

[Lexclone]

I loved this thread. Now, I super-league hate it.

 

[AuH2O]

This is an interesting thread lol

First reaction - the topless truck for Holgerson is great.

Second reaction - Neal Brown didn't get fired???

 

[exCyDing]

The biggest problem I have with believing a super-league is a viable enterprise is the situation details of a matchup for less than obsessive fans.

Take, for example, Ohio St and Oregon. They played an OOC game against each other in 2021, back before anyone could conceive that they would be in the same conference in a couple of years. Week 2 matchup, #3 Ohio St vs #12 Oregon, Primetime, ABC. It got pretty good rankings because it was an early season game against ranked teams that rarely play each other. There was novelty to it because these two don't play regularly and a lot of other top teams were tuning up against cupcakes.

Let's flash forward to 2029. Oregon has been in the B10 long enough for some of the novelty to have worn off. Week 8, #12 Oregon vs #3 Ohio St. Primetime game, ABC. Is this as attractive of a game to fans other than the two schools/B10? Probably not.

Edit: Wanted to add, a Super Conference probably tanks the value of the CFP. Rematches would be fairly common, and historically, the ratings suffer when that's the case. There wouldn't be nearly as much novelty to watching two teams that rarely play each other to draw in more casual fans. There would be comparatively little to distinguish the playoffs from the end of the regular season.

 

[CydeofFries]

I think the make or break point for mega conferences won't be access to playoff or even media deal money, it'll be how many teams are making the playoffs for each conference. Remember ESPN currently has sole rights to the playoffs through 2026 and payouts to conferences from that are split by # of teams appearing. The schemed this realignment to try and maximize the # of SEC teams that get into the playoffs, which compounds into their revenue vs. other conferences. There is easily a future where the playoff is 5 SEC teams 3 Big10 teams and 1 from 4 other conferences which will accelerate the separation of the conferences.

The best thing for the sport would be to cap the number of teams from each conference at like 2. If you aren't good enough to finish top 2 in your conference why should you get a chance to win the national championship (with a limited set up like football is). Hell I'd argue there should be a cap for NCAA Tournament as well but that's a whole different post.

 

[houjix]

I think the challenge can come because the language states broadcast by a “station” within 75 miles, not the home/market. At the time of the law, the station was of course going to be located within the market. I don’t know what would be ruled as the streaming equivalent to a TV station.

What I was saying by the home market thing is they are allowed to broadcast games locally even if it is on cable/streaming. So if the Chiefs are on MNF, the game is still broadcast on an OTA channel in the KC home market. Since the Friday Prime game is Miami vs NYJ, a local station for both of those teams can air the game. Where the issue could arise is if it runs past that 6 pm time frame. Will the local channels end their broadcast there, or will they try to run it past that time and risk being in violation of the law. The rest of the country there is less of a worry as it will only available on streaming.

 

[yowza]

The biggest problem I have with believing a super-league is a viable enterprise is the situation details of a matchup for less than obsessive fans.

Take, for example, Ohio St and Oregon. They played an OOC game against each other in 2021, back before anyone could conceive that they would be in the same conference in a couple of years. Week 2 matchup, #3 Ohio St vs #12 Oregon, Primetime, ABC. It got pretty good rankings because it was an early season game against ranked teams that rarely play each other. There was novelty to it because these two don't play regularly and a lot of other top teams were tuning up against cupcakes.

Let's flash forward to 2029. Oregon has been in the B10 long enough for some of the novelty to have worn off. Week 8, #12 Oregon vs #3 Ohio St. Primetime game, ABC. Is this as attractive of a game to fans other than the two schools/B10? Probably not.

So you are implying long time conference rivals with higher ratings don't get the viewership? I don't know what the tv ratings were for that 2021 game, but I would place bets there were Big Ten conference games that got higher tv ratings than that game.

 

[Gonzo]

These teams will join because none of them think that they are going to be one of the teams that will have the losing record year after year. Currently like Nebraska does, has it stopped them from giving up hope that they will return to the good Ol days? Has it affected their attendance over there in Lincoln.

Big Easy fans of the lesser schools are banking on the idea that the Ohio State's need them to continue to win at a high level, and its a foolish thought. Because none of the blue blood schools think they are going to be losing games, and if they do, they will have the money to fire their coach and start over. Just the price of doing business.

If you think an elite program from the B1G or SEC will make such a significant move of blowing up the SEC and B1G and joining a superconference stacked entirely with other elite programs without considering all of the risks involved, let's just say we disagree. Lol.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

What I was saying by the home market thing is they are allowed to broadcast games locally even if it is on cable/streaming. So if the Chiefs are on MNF, the game is still broadcast on an OTA channel in the KC home market. Since the Friday Prime game is Miami vs NYJ, a local station for both of those teams can air the game. Where the issue could arise is if it runs past that 6 pm time frame. Will the local channels end their broadcast there, or will they try to run it past that time and risk being in violation of the law. The rest of the country there is less of a worry as it will only available on streaming.

Games run over every week in the NFL, and no stations break away at 6 pm to air anything else but the finish of the game. The station would then join the network feed in progress and then maybe replay it at a later date.

 

[yowza]

These teams will join because none of them think that they are going to be one of the teams that will have the losing record year after year. Currently like Nebraska does, has it stopped them from giving up hope that they will return to the good Ol days? Has it affected their attendance over there in Lincoln.

Big Easy fans of the lesser schools are banking on the idea that the Ohio State's need them to continue to win at a high level, and its a foolish thought. Because none of the blue blood schools think they are going to be losing games, and if they do, they will have the money to fire their coach and start over. Just the price of doing business.

I think Nebraska will eventually suffer as the older gens can't go any more. Not sure the younger gens will find it as an attractive entertainment option as the middle to older gens do / did. I do admire their loyalty even as their team suffered these last number of years.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

If you think an elite program from the B1G or SEC will make such a significant move of blowing up the SEC and B1G and joining a superconference stacked entirely with other elite programs without considering all of the risks involved, let's just say we disagree. Lol.

They will consider the risk, but twice the money will be all they need to take the risk. Its not going to happen tomorrow, next week or next year, but the closer we get to the ACC GOR ending, is when talks will start to heat up about the top schools just breaking away and forming a league of their own, with their own rules and their own commissioner.

 

[Gonzo]

all this talk about a super league and i just dont see it. i think ND has it figured out and already developed the model that the other big dogs will run with.

eventually Ohio St and Alabama and Texas etc, will just go independent, agree to yearly games with the other independents, sell these games ala carte for huge dollars, they will buy home games (5-10 million per game for the visiting team) with some of the teams that stay in conferences. and they will cash giant checks.

maybe a super league will form out of the remnants of the conferences.

Now that IMO is way more realistic than a superconference.

 

[Gonzo]

They will consider the risk, but twice the money will be all they need to take the risk. Its not going to happen tomorrow, next week or next year, but the closer we get to the ACC GOR ending, is when talks will start to heat up about the top schools just breaking away and forming a league of their own, with their own rules and their own commissioner.

Lol, ok, we can revisit in the early 2030s.

 

[exCyDing]

So you are implying long time conference rivals with higher ratings don't get the viewership? I don't know what the tv ratings were for that 2021 game, but I would place bets there were Big Ten conference games that got higher tv ratings than that game.

That's not quite what I'm saying. Long-time rivalry games usually dominate the top-rated games every season.

What I'm saying is, does Oregon/Ohio St as an OOC game get better or worse ratings than Oregon/Ohio St as a conference game? Is the OOC game more or less interesting to casual, non-Oregon, non-Ohio St, non-B10 fans?

 

[AuH2O]

What I was saying by the home market thing is they are allowed to broadcast games locally even if it is on cable/streaming. So if the Chiefs are on MNF, the game is still broadcast on an OTA channel in the KC home market. Since the Friday Prime game is Miami vs NYJ, a local station for both of those teams can air the game. Where the issue could arise is if it runs past that 6 pm time frame. Will the local channels end their broadcast there, or will they try to run it past that time and risk being in violation of the law. The rest of the country there is less of a worry as it will only available on streaming.

Got it - I didn't realize OTAs were also broadcasting the Black Friday game.

This will definitely be the first test in a while. While there were satellite cases (Sunday Ticket) there were always the cases of OTAs showing these as well, so there was always going to be the 75 mile radius. Amazon or similar being the exclusive carrier of a game will be a new potential challenge.

As far as I know 2024 will be the first time a major network (CBS) will have NFL but no CFB. Probably since the early days of Fox's NFL coverage before they got into CFB. Maybe Fox's CFB interest will be enough, along with not wanting to challenge the amendment to the antitrust exemption to keep CBS and the NFL off of Saturdays. But maybe they'll feel good enough about the fact that CFB has long overgrown the poor little non-profit it was that they want to give Saturdays a try. So for this year I think what happens to the local OTAs if the game goes beyond 6 eastern will be interesting to watch. Then I'm curious to see if CBS tries to pull anything in 2024.

EDIT I forgot about CBS’s Big 10 game.

 

[HoopsTournament]

We are simply looking at this from different perspectives. My perspective is everything is trending towards one mega conference. I have never argued whether such a conference is A) good for collegiate athletics or B) would actually work in the long run

Your perspective is simply saying such a conference would never actually work.

I am saying that there are enough smart people that will run the scenarios and realize it will never work. And therefore it won’t actually ever get to one mega conference breaking away. We are really already at super conferences, but they will always have bottom feeders because the powers understand they need bottom feeders. That knowledge will not change.