Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[HFCS]

If true and UNC is against expansion gotta assume FSU/Clemson/NCSt still are too. The expansion watch won’t be concluding tomorrow.

It’s not a good sign for acc that the recent b12, b10 and sec expansions were unanimous and theirs was opposed by the members who want to bolt.

After their top tier leaves, trips to empty fb stadiums and non revenue sports to the Bay Area won’t keep the next teir away from big 12.

 

[Scruff]

Yeah, it has really helped them. Outside of Clemson's FB success, the rest of the conference has dived for FB and what was once the best MBB conference is now 3rd (at best) due in large part to dilution of the product with expansion and made worse with this latest senseless expansion.

For a Wake Forest and Boston College, it most certainly has helped them. It's about survival for them. Just ask Oregon State and Wazzu. Even if B1G, SEC, and Big12 take from the ACC. There are likely enough schools now that they have a conference when its done, even if its a diluted conference. I actually believe this makes it very difficult for the Big12 to walk away with any ACC schools at the end of this.

 

[Scruff]

...After their top tier leaves, trips to empty fb stadiums and non revenue sports to the Bay Area won’t keep the next teir away from big 12.

....I actually believe this makes it very difficult for the Big12 to walk away with any ACC schools at the end of this.

hahaha... funny we came away from different conclusions. Time will tell, those 3 no votes will be gone eventually. I really hope you're right and I'm wrong!

 

[clonedude]

College football is just being ruined one step at a time right before our eyes... it's really sad.

Money, power, and greed tend to destroy everything over time. College football is my favorite sport... but I'm caring less and less about it every year. If it dies because of greed..... it dies. So be it at this point.

 

[SCNCY]

Did SMU take out a couple mortgages on their campus while they're at it? 7 years without media revenue seems pointless.

It's a similar strategy that Oregon and Washington are taking with the Big10. Take the financial hit now, because when the next media is negotiated, they will be apart of that deal and be full share in the new deal.

SMU sees where things are going and it's worth it to be at the table with the big conferences in the long run, despite the short term pain.

 

[cykadelic2]

It’s not a good sign for acc that the recent b12, b10 and sec expansions were unanimous and theirs was opposed by the members who want to bolt.

They were reported as unanimous but in reality, they weren't. aggy sure as hell didn't vote for UT to join the SEC and there were multiple B10 schools opposed to expanding with ORWA.

 

[HFCS]

This just gives the existing members more $ and does not lock them in any further. The only way they were getting extra $ before 2036 was if they used Cal, Stan, and SMU as pawns.

Anyone who argues that the ACC now is the #3 conference is dead wrong. They just expanded with 3 teams that the Big 12 had a chance at, and took a hard pass. I do think having a Power 4 with a weaker ACC in the long-term, is better for the B12 than a Power 3. I see a better chance at a Power 4 surviving long-term than a Power 3. I think 3 would then whittle down to 2.

It’ll play out on the field. The acc hasn’t ever ranked in front of the big 12 in football in the decades I’ve been looking at computer metrics. With Stanford trending down they didn’t add football power.

In hoops the acc had already slipped to the #3 league at best, this move adding 3 horrible programs makes them #4 at best behind big ten and more likely #5 behind sec which got a basketball boost.

 

[CascadeClone]

Desperate times call for desperate measures.

The ACC saw what happened to the PAC - erased from existence. They know that Clemson, FSU, and more will leave eventually. Couldn't risk also being disintegrated, so took a page from the Big12's book - added teams (even if not that great) because "strength in numbers" is worth something to keep the conference name alive.

Similarly, Cal, Stanford are desperate not to be relegated - which will probably be a forever relegation this time. And in the ACC, they can at least brag up Duke, UNC, UVa, BC and the other quality academic schools to be associated with. Same with SMU - this is likely their only and last ever shot to get back to the top level post death penalty. Doesn't matter if they have to borrow $200M for the next decade, they can make it back in the top level. But if they don't make it now, they are probably G5 til the end of time.

As far as Big12 impact of this... we've been assuming that the B1G and SEC would take 6 teams from the ACC eventually, and the remaining 8 would be hard pressed to stay together (media value $20M per?) so the Big12 would be able to grab the best 4 leftovers; effectively killing the ACC. But with the 3 adds, now there would be 11 teams left... that might be enough to cling together even with a lower value media deal?

Its very similar to the PAC situation, but they already have the adds in house, they wouldn't be scrambling to justify San Diego St or Boise like the PAC was. And they have better leadership for sure. So MAYBE they could hang together? Although still would be a lot of pull for a Louisville, Pitt, etc to jump to the Big12. Honestly, I don't think its enough - teams like LV and Pitt and VT would probably like a conference with old BigEast rivals like WV and Cincy (also no geography or academic prestige objections). But at least the ACC is trying to get ahead of it and executing a plan - unlike the PAC which was clueless and leaderless.

 

[HFCS]

They were reported as unanimous but in reality, they weren't. aggy sure as hell didn't vote for UT to join the SEC and there were multiple B10 schools opposed to expanding with ORWA.

The big 12 is the ACC’s real competition and I believe all 8 adds were true unanimous support by the remaining 8.

 

[HFCS]

hahaha... funny we came away from different conclusions. Time will tell, those 3 no votes will be gone eventually. I really hope you're right and I'm wrong!

Pitt is our best realistic fit that gets no big ten or SEC interest.

They’d want less tv money to play in an empty stadium at Stan/Cal or more TV money to play sold out games with rival WVU 80 miles down the road?

 

[HFCS]

Desperate times call for desperate measures.

The ACC saw what happened to the PAC - erased from existence. They know that Clemson, FSU, and more will leave eventually. Couldn't risk also being disintegrated, so took a page from the Big12's book - added teams (even if not that great) because "strength in numbers" is worth something to keep the conference name alive.

Similarly, Cal, Stanford are desperate not to be relegated - which will probably be a forever relegation this time. And in the ACC, they can at least brag up Duke, UNC, UVa, BC and the other quality academic schools to be associated with. Same with SMU - this is likely their only and last ever shot to get back to the top level post death penalty. Doesn't matter if they have to borrow $200M for the next decade, they can make it back in the top level. But if they don't make it now, they are probably G5 til the end of time.

As far as Big12 impact of this... we've been assuming that the B1G and SEC would take 6 teams from the ACC eventually, and the remaining 8 would be hard pressed to stay together (media value $20M per?) so the Big12 would be able to grab the best 4 leftovers; effectively killing the ACC. But with the 3 adds, now there would be 11 teams left... that might be enough to cling together even with a lower value media deal?

Its very similar to the PAC situation, but they already have the adds in house, they wouldn't be scrambling to justify San Diego St or Boise like the PAC was. And they have better leadership for sure. So MAYBE they could hang together? Although still would be a lot of pull for a Louisville, Pitt, etc to jump to the Big12. Honestly, I don't think its enough - teams like LV and Pitt and VT would probably like a conference with old BigEast rivals like WV and Cincy (also no geography or academic prestige objections). But at least the ACC is trying to get ahead of it and executing a plan - unlike the PAC which was clueless and leaderless.

Imho what they just did is give themselves an option to add a few teams from AAC after big ten/sec crush them vs having BC and Wake absorbed into ACC like what is happening with ore st and wsu.

 

[MugNight]

Pitt is our best realistic fit that gets no big ten or SEC interest.

They’d want less tv money to play in an empty stadium at Stan/Cal or more TV money to play sold out games with rival WVU 80 miles down the road?

Agreed. Penn State realistically already has the Pittsburgh market covered. Pitt fits that “northeast basketball school” vibe, but their fans and local population at least care about college football. Adds another rival for Cincy too.

 

[GTO]

Wow, ACC officially adding Stanford, CAL, and SMU.

 

[GTO]

Oregon State and Washington State - welcome to the MWC!

 

[HFCS]

Desperate times call for desperate measures.

The ACC saw what happened to the PAC - erased from existence. They know that Clemson, FSU, and more will leave eventually. Couldn't risk also being disintegrated, so took a page from the Big12's book - added teams (even if not that great) because "strength in numbers" is worth something to keep the conference name alive.

Similarly, Cal, Stanford are desperate not to be relegated - which will probably be a forever relegation this time. And in the ACC, they can at least brag up Duke, UNC, UVa, BC and the other quality academic schools to be associated with. Same with SMU - this is likely their only and last ever shot to get back to the top level post death penalty. Doesn't matter if they have to borrow $200M for the next decade, they can make it back in the top level. But if they don't make it now, they are probably G5 til the end of time.

As far as Big12 impact of this... we've been assuming that the B1G and SEC would take 6 teams from the ACC eventually, and the remaining 8 would be hard pressed to stay together (media value $20M per?) so the Big12 would be able to grab the best 4 leftovers; effectively killing the ACC. But with the 3 adds, now there would be 11 teams left... that might be enough to cling together even with a lower value media deal?

Its very similar to the PAC situation, but they already have the adds in house, they wouldn't be scrambling to justify San Diego St or Boise like the PAC was. And they have better leadership for sure. So MAYBE they could hang together? Although still would be a lot of pull for a Louisville, Pitt, etc to jump to the Big12. Honestly, I don't think its enough - teams like LV and Pitt and VT would probably like a conference with old BigEast rivals like WV and Cincy (also no geography or academic prestige objections). But at least the ACC is trying to get ahead of it and executing a plan - unlike the PAC which was clueless and leaderless.

It’s like if Pac had added 3 MWC teams ahead of time rather than trying once they were down to two or four, then those 5 schools along w wsu/ore st could have kept Pac name and added 5 from MWC.

This is a massive win for Boston College and Wake Forest. It’s shredding water for the mid level teams. Nothing but a big ten invite is going to be good long term for cal and Stanford athletic programs. I still think their next best long term fit is WCC without football if they are serious about student athletes and too proud for MWC.

 

[Scruff]

Pitt is our best realistic fit that gets no big ten or SEC interest.

They’d want less tv money to play in an empty stadium at Stan/Cal or more TV money to play sold out games with rival WVU 80 miles down the road?

It's a solid question.

Teams in the PAC taught me that some schools care far more about academics than others. Many leftover ACC schools care more about academics, meaning they might stay with Duke, Cal, and Stanford rather than jump unless its a clear payday.

I believe Louisville is the new lynchpin for us (like Arizona/Colorado this round). They have solid sports, not great academically, and a great fit with Cinci, WVU, and Houston. Pitt and VT are better choices, but I'm not sure if as likely to make the jump first. Even with the addition of 2 cali teams, Pitt has far less travel in the ACC right now.

 

[JHUNSY]

I fully expect Stew and the west coast media to be pissed off about Oregon State, Wazzu, and the 100-year old Pac12 being left out in the dust from the non-inclusive alliance here with the ACC.

They won’t endorse this move at all, right?

Spoiler

/sarcasm

 

[HFCS]

It's a solid question.

Teams in the PAC taught me that some schools care far more about academics than others. Many leftover ACC schools care more about academics, meaning they might stay with Duke, Cal, and Stanford rather than jump unless its a clear payday.

I believe Louisville is the new lynchpin for us (like Arizona/Colorado this round). They have solid sports, not great academically, and a great fit with Cinci, WVU, and Houston. Pitt and VT are better choices, but I'm not sure if as likely to make the jump first. Even with the addition of 2 cali teams, Pitt has far less travel in the ACC right now.

Notre Dame keeping agreement is massive too.

With ND involved they can probably be on average even football quality with new big 12. Top heavy ACC vs deeper big 12 but overall probably similar.

In basketball they were already trending down to 3rd/4th league and adding three bad programs probably makes them 6th power conference. Duke is an unknown after coach k, UNC will be UNC like ucla where the floor is still high.

 

[BMWallace]

Oregon State and Washington State - welcome to the MWC!

I know it doesn't make sense from a financial standpoint, but I wish we would invite OSU and WSU. If they weren't so remote these two are a great cultural fit for the Big 12 post OuT. Watching teams get relegated sucks, particularly knowing that it could have been us a decade ago, and it could be us in the future as well.

 

[Scruff]

Notre Dame keeping agreement is massive too.

With ND involved they can probably be on average even football quality with new big 12. Top heavy ACC vs deeper big 12 but overall probably similar.

In basketball they were already trending down to 3rd/4th league and adding three bad programs probably makes them 6th power conference. Duke is an unknown after coach k, UNC will be UNC like ucla where the floor is still high.

If you want Pittsburgh to join the Big 12, we better get a great TV contract next round. I think we'll need to be clearly ahead of the remaining teams in revenue for them to jump. While we Big12 fans don't care about academics, the PAC just showed me that some schools absolutely do care. Here is what we will be competing with:

3 – Stanford
10 – Duke
18 – Notre Dame (All sports, but football)
20 – Cal, Berkley
25 – Virginia
29 – Wake Forest
36 – Boston College
44 – Georgia Tech
55 – Miami
62 – Syracuse
62 – Pittsburgh
62 – Virginia Tech
72 – NC State
72 – SMU

I even removed UNC and Florida State assuming they'd be gone. I believe many of these presidents would backfill with Rice and Tulane at the cost of revenue too, if they feel they need to. #182 Louisville is our target (like colorado/arizona) and hope someone follows.

For reference:

https://www.usnews.com/best-colleges/rankings/national-universities?_sort=rank&_sortDirection=asc