That would be kind of cool, but if someone gets mad at a meteorologist over specifics (in this very inexact science) there is no help for them anyway.
Possible huge snow storm next week?
- Thread starter ClonesTwentyOne
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That would be kind of cool, but if someone gets mad at a meteorologist over specifics (in this very inexact science) there is no help for them anyway.
Omaha NWS just issued an update. Both Ames and Des Moines still in the 8-12 inch area, but check out the very tight gradient on the southern edge that FDWxMan has been talking about:
Omaha NWS just issued an update. Both Ames and Des Moines still in the 8-12 inch area, but check out the very tight gradient on the southern edge that FDWxMan has been talking about:
Judging from that graphic, it would appear Omaha posted that before DSM updated their grids.
See the sharp southern disconnected in the yellow south of Atlantic...that is the county line where the office county warning areas switch over.
I would expect Des Moines will blend theirs northward as well once they post in the next ~90 min.
Unless of course they disagree and couldn't come to a consensus. Happens from time to time.
I wish the viewing public had a collective IQ high enough to make that feasible. The Era Of Discontent for Discontentment's Sake is upon us. Welcome to hell.
I'm planning to drive from Cedar Rapids to Ames for the basketball game tomorrow and then back to CR afterwards.
Does it look like I'll be able to make it?
Does it look like I'll be able to make it?
They actually cancelled school for tomorrow in Sioux City & nearby towns, 15 minutes after the kids got out of school today.
BTW, anyone hear when the Mountaineer squad was going to arrive in Ames, to hopefully avoid all this weather?
BTW, anyone hear when the Mountaineer squad was going to arrive in Ames, to hopefully avoid all this weather?
they always arrive the night before.
It it would have been ideal if they didn't though.
Also, that's a lot of numbers and a lot of % to fit into 140 characters, or just a 3 minute weather segment in which most people aren't even devoting 100% attention to.
It's a dilemma, because you are right, uncertainty needs to be conveyed, but effectively communicating that message is a challenge.
For instance, ask people what a 50% chance of rain means, and see if you can even get 5 people deep without a "you could say that everyday."
I do need to do more of this sort of thing on Facebook though, something where I can get more of a long-form type of platform.
but that's the thing - does 50% mean in a specific geographic spot or what? i don't even pay attention to weather because nothing i do can change it. why worry about it? i have 4WD and my commute is 2 miles.
Sometimes I feel that weather people should realize that they are going to be wrong a lot of the time and not get so bent out of shape when people ***** about it. Is it right that people ***** about it? No. But it's the nature of the beast.
Most of the time, everyone does a great job. And I certainly expect them to be wrong a lot given the science involved.
Most of the time, everyone does a great job. And I certainly expect them to be wrong a lot given the science involved.
60% of the time, we're right every time.:wink:
Seriously though, here's a great blog on the issue. And highlights some of the problems, namely being not even all mets are playing by the same rules! (which you'll see in the blog).
I'm not sure % chance is the best way to go about it, especially with wide range of statistics knowledge the audience will have, and trying to figure out if it is or what to replace it with is a discussion on #wxtwitter and conferences every day.
Why a 50% chance of rain means a 100% chance of confusion.
Eaton Mfg in Belmond has already announced the following work schedule:
2nd shift today as scheduled.
3rd shift tonight cancelled
All 3 shifts Tuesday cancelled
1st shift Wednesday start at 9am.
Other business concerns are already announcing they are closed tomorrow up here.
2nd shift today as scheduled.
3rd shift tonight cancelled
All 3 shifts Tuesday cancelled
1st shift Wednesday start at 9am.
Other business concerns are already announcing they are closed tomorrow up here.
Attached is a video from Accuweather that explains what is going on currently. Says that the energy that was pushing the system south and east is not as strong as once thought, thus the shift to the north and west. Also, because of the north and west shift the upper level low will be closer to Des Moines, which means that south and east of the upper level low will be dry slotted.
[video]http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/4100815092001/snowstorm-for-denver-omaha-and?linkBaseURL=http%3A%2F%2Fvideowall.accuweather.com%2Fdetail%2Fvideos%2Ftrend ing-now%2Fvideo%2F4100815092001%2Fsnowstorm-for-denver-omaha-and[/video]
[video]http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/4100815092001/snowstorm-for-denver-omaha-and?linkBaseURL=http%3A%2F%2Fvideowall.accuweather.com%2Fdetail%2Fvideos%2Ftrend ing-now%2Fvideo%2F4100815092001%2Fsnowstorm-for-denver-omaha-and[/video]
Dont jinx it. you keep that thing out and gassed up until this is past us.
