***Official 2023 Weather Thread***
- Thread starter wxman1
- Start date
Ya she said the dog (whippet mutt) did one half hearted lap around the yard and whined to get back in.
Severe weather is definitely possible/likely. However, the tornadic threat will depend on how far north the warm front makes it. Any storm near/south of the warm front will have much greater tornado potential. As the storms get north of the warm front, they should become elevated and pose more of a very large hail/wind threat (although a non-zero tornado threat). It's just that north of the warm front, storms will lose the surface based instability they need for greater tornado potential. But they will still likely rotate which increases severe potential.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0456.html
"Mesoscale Discussion 0456
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CDT Tue Apr 04 2023
Areas affected...portions of central/southern IA...northwest IL and
northern MO
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 041849Z - 042045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop by 22z/5
pm CDT and shift east across central/southern Iowa, northern
Missouri and northwest Illinois through the evening. These storms
will be capable of producing very large hail, tornadoes (some
strong) and damaging gusts. A tornado watch will likely be issued in
the next couple of hours.
DISCUSSION...Northward transport of low-level moisture continues
early this afternoon. Dewpoints across southern IL/northern MO into
northwest IL have increased 8 degrees F over the past 3 hours.
Strong heating to the south of a warm front has resulting in
temperatures into the low/mid 80s F amid low/mid 60s F surface
dewpoints. Some midlevel dry air is evident in forecast and observed
soundings, and may result in some mixing of boundary-layer moisture.
Forecast guidance suggest an increasing low-level jet will nose
into the eastern IA/northwest IL later this afternoon and support
open warm sector storms near the warm front. Additional storms are
expected to develop near the surface low, southward along the
eastward-advancing dryline/cold front. While mixing may result in
somewhat higher LCLs, very steep midlevel lapse rates and strong
vertical shear will support supercells capable of very large hail
(greater than 3 inch in diameter) and damaging gusts. Furthermore,
forecast soundings indicated favorable low-level shear and 0-1 km
SRH increasing to around 250 m2/s2, supporting tornado potential.
Increasing cumulus is noted in latest visible satellite imagery both
along the warm front and ahead of the dryline as of 1830z. A couple
of elevated cells have even started to develop southward into
west-central MO. While capping remains over the region, this may be
an indication of some increased forcing beginning to impinge on the
area. Continued low-level warm/moist advection beneath the cap,
coupled with heating and gradual increasing ascent should result in
greater convective initiation/coverage by around 22z. A tornado
watch will be likely in the next couple of hours.
..Leitman/Hart.. 04/04/2023"
Ill be honest i just googled "0z to central" and it probably didn't have DST factored in XD
On my to work this morning about 830am, started hailing a lot. I pulled off the Quaker exit and sat under 380 until it stopped. Was coming down fast!
If you mean you stopped underneath an overpass on a highway... please don't do that! It causes huge safety issues with traffic.
I got off the exit by Quaker and parked in the parking area under the overpass.