***Official 2023 Chicago Cubs Thread***

[ISUCubswin]

Trading and free agency evidently start today. There had been speculation the Padres may wait until July to trade Soto, but turns out not only were they given a $50 million loan to cover expenses, but they requested $100 million, which tells me there’s zero shot they can afford paying him whatsoever this season. I’d bet he has a new team by December.

 

[tyrelrobert]

Trading and free agency evidently start today. There had been speculation the Padres may wait until July to trade Soto, but turns out not only were they given a $50 million loan to cover expenses, but they requested $100 million, which tells me there’s zero shot they can afford paying him whatsoever this season. I’d bet he has a new team by December

They may need to shed more than just Soto if they need that much $. Might be able to get a reliever like Barlow if you sweeten the Morel pot with a mid prospect or two.

 

[David Freshman1982]

Morel, Mervis, Killian and Palencia for Soto, let's go!

Also, here's a weird one I read online and while my first reaction was to laugh (loudly), the more I thought about it, I said hmmm....A pair of mid-tier prospects to Detroit for Javy, Tigers keep nearly all of Javy's contract (say $5MM/yr or so for the Cubs). Would you do this? As awful as Javy has been in Detroit, he seems like the kind of guy that genuinely needs the fan support to be his best, and no doubt Cub fans still love the guy. At worst, he'd be a defensive super-sub with a power bat for $5MM/yr, isn't that what they were paying David freaking Bote?

 

[CYdTracked]

Morel, Mervis, Killian and Palencia for Soto, let's go!

Also, here's a weird one I read online and while my first reaction was to laugh (loudly), the more I thought about it, I said hmmm....A pair of mid-tier prospects to Detroit for Javy, Tigers keep nearly all of Javy's contract (say $5MM/yr or so for the Cubs). Would you do this? As awful as Javy has been in Detroit, he seems like the kind of guy that genuinely needs the fan support to be his best, and no doubt Cub fans still love the guy. At worst, he'd be a defensive super-sub with a power bat for $5MM/yr, isn't that what they were paying David freaking Bote?

No on Javy, don't care if they would trade him for a bag of balls his bat can be a black hole because will swing at about any pitch thrown at him.

If SD is looking to cut salary I'd love to find a way to get Machado to play 3B. The backend of his contract is the problem though, he's pretty reasonable at just over 17 mil for the next 2 seasons but after that he goes up to 25 then 7 years is 39 mil each up to age 40 which would be tough to justify plus he has a full no trade clause. Boegarts has full no trade clause and also signed through 2033 and age 40 but a much more reasonable 25.4 mil a year.

Padres payroll is a mess and not just for next season but long term as they have 5 guys with full no trade clauses signed through 2027 and several beyond with AAV of 15 20 25.7 25.4 and 39 mil in 2027 which is over 125 mil committed to just 5 players that season. Tatis probably would net them the biggest prospect return if they were to trade him as he's only 25 and signed through 2034 for what is probably a fair contract and the next 3 seasons are pretty friendly before the larger pay bumps start to kick in. Soto is really only a short term fix for their payroll issue this season and it will be hard for them to move guys like Bogaerts, Machado, and Tatis without either eating a bunch of money or taking far less back in prospects due to length of contracts and age of Bogaerts and Machado. Even Darvish at 37 is signed through 2028 when he will be 41 but his AAV is pretty reasonable.

 

[ZRF]

Morel, Mervis, Killian and Palencia for Soto, let's go!

Also, here's a weird one I read online and while my first reaction was to laugh (loudly), the more I thought about it, I said hmmm....A pair of mid-tier prospects to Detroit for Javy, Tigers keep nearly all of Javy's contract (say $5MM/yr or so for the Cubs). Would you do this? As awful as Javy has been in Detroit, he seems like the kind of guy that genuinely needs the fan support to be his best, and no doubt Cub fans still love the guy. At worst, he'd be a defensive super-sub with a power bat for $5MM/yr, isn't that what they were paying David freaking Bote?

LOL. If that's all it takes to get a player like Soto I'd be shocked. Fifteen teams would be lining up with better offers than that (at least 10 any way).

At this point Javy sucks and has little value. His defense isn't as elite as it once was and his lack of actual baseball skills at the plate, you know, things patience, pitch selection, and swinging under control have more have caught up to him. If he wasn't so obstinate he had the chance to be a special player. Instead he wanted to simply rely on talent and there are few players that kind of approach works well for long term.

There's no reason to have a guy like Javy on the team when we have guys in the minors who are simply better baseball players than him, even if they are less talented.

 

[chuckd4735]

Man, the managing job Maddon did in that Game 4 was a freaking thing of beauty. He completly clowned Bochy by using Chris Coghlan to force a lefty reliver and then bringing Contreras in who got the game typing hit. He wanted nothing to do with Cueto in Game 5 at Wrigley, pulled some power moves late in the game, and they paid off.

 

[ISUCubswin]

Soto is a Boras client and looking at costing over $30 million next year. Boras rarely, if ever, signs extensions.

My guess is most teams won’t be throwing their top prospects if they aren’t going to be guaranteed a sure thing.

Because of that, I believe Morel + Killian + 1 more would probably be enough, unless they’re willing to work on an extension, then it would obviously be more.

 

[ISUCubswin]

The one Padres player who I haven’t seen talked about by media is Tatis. He costs $25 million against the cap a year until 2035, and he and the FO don’t have a great history. If he would be willing to move to third, I’d be ok with throwing a top prospect or two for a sure thing.

 

[CycloneErik]

Soto is a Boras client and looking at costing over $30 million next year. Boras rarely, if ever, signs extensions.

My guess is most teams won’t be throwing their top prospects if they aren’t going to be guaranteed a sure thing.

Because of that, I believe Morel + Killian + 1 more would probably be enough, unless they’re willing to work on an extension, then it would obviously be more.

Someone did a comparison of Soto's annual stats to Bryant's MVP season, and Soto comes out looking very good.

 

[04clone]

The one Padres player who I haven’t seen talked about by media is Tatis. He costs $25 million against the cap a year until 2035, and he and the FO don’t have a great history. If he would be willing to move to third, I’d be ok with throwing a top prospect or two for a sure thing.

It would take a ton to get Tatis. He just put up 4.4 WAR in a down offensive year and will probably win the Gold Glove in RF (in his first year there). He's also only 24. His deal is big, but he still has a ton of surplus value (e.g., you'd likely be giving up multiple PCA, Horton, Alcantara level prospects to be in the conversation). If you do it, maybe you try to include PCA, and then put Tatis in CF, which is a much better fit than 3B, as Tatis had serious arm accuracy issues while playing SS.

 

[CYdTracked]

It would take a ton to get Tatis. He just put up 4.4 WAR in a down offensive year and will probably win the Gold Glove in RF (in his first year there). He's also only 24. His deal is big, but he still has a ton of surplus value (e.g., you'd likely be giving up multiple PCA, Horton, Alcantara level prospects to be in the conversation). If you do it, maybe you try to include PCA, and then put Tatis in CF, which is a much better fit than 3B, as Tatis had serious arm accuracy issues while playing SS.

I think the Padres prefer not to trade him but he's probably the most desirable player on their roster as far as age, contract, and productivity goes. Yes it would take a haul to get him probably but given they have guys with worse contracts they would rather move you wonder just how much payroll do they have to shed to hit the number they want to get to and how far will they go to get there? Taking out a loan to cover payroll is not a good sign and may lead to desperate measures as like I mentioned above even if they shed Soto for this year Machado's contract jumps from 17 mil in 2024 to 39 mil by 2027. Tatis goes from 11.7 mil in 2024 to 25.7 mil in 2027. So between now and then those 2 guys alone are going to cost them an extra 36 mil a year in 2027 compared to what they will make next season. They still also have dead money with Hosmer at 12.24 mil the next 2 seasons as well on their payroll.

As Marty Higgins said in The Campaign "It's a mess!"

2026 San Diego Padres Payroll Table

An updated look at the San Diego Padres 2026 payroll table, including team totals, retained figures, and complete breakdowns of player salaries, and bonuses.

www.spotrac.com

 

[whatthewhat]

There is no ability to negotiate an extension, by the receiving team, before a trade in baseball. Anyone that only has one arbitration year left is traded with that stipulation. Once he becomes the new team's property, they are able to engage in extension talk, but there is no guaranty that an agreement will be reached. Since we're talking about a Boras client, you are being delusional if you expect to reach an extension agreement. Could it happen? Yes, but the odds would be against it.

 

[Cyforce]

Out of the OF glut of prospects I'd prefer Davis and Caissie be the 2 they prefer to lose. Davis just can't stay healthy and hasn't looked great when he was this year. Cassie may be more of a DH than a full time OF. Just feels like Canario and Alcantara may have the biggest upsides and would hate to trade away possible studs for a 1 year rental. Would not sweat losing Morel and a lesser prospect but if you are going to deal from some of your top guys would like to find a guy that has more than 1 year left and fills a need where we don't have depth of prospects like the corner infield spots.

Davis doesn't have value until he can show he's healthy. Far to talented to give up on or give away.

 

[David Freshman1982]

LOL. If that's all it takes to get a player like Soto I'd be shocked. Fifteen teams would be lining up with better offers than that (at least 10 any way).

At this point Javy sucks and has little value. His defense isn't as elite as it once was and his lack of actual baseball skills at the plate, you know, things patience, pitch selection, and swinging under control have more have caught up to him. If he wasn't so obstinate he had the chance to be a special player. Instead he wanted to simply rely on talent and there are few players that kind of approach works well for long term.

There's no reason to have a guy like Javy on the team when we have guys in the minors who are simply better baseball players than him, even if they are less talented.

I disagree, you're only getting one year of Soto. As others have mentioned, he's certain to go FA after that year. No team is going to give a ton for just one year of a player, no matter how good that player is. They'd rather just spend money in that case.

 

[BigJCy]

 

[ZRF]

I disagree, you're only getting one year of Soto. As others have mentioned, he's certain to go FA after that year. No team is going to give a ton for just one year of a player, no matter how good that player is. They'd rather just spend money in that case.

I don't think any team that's not a "player away" makes a trade without have a an agreement for an extension in hand. If he truly wants to go that route then it will limit his potential suitors. I'd still think someone who thought they were on the cusp would offer more than the one you had. I guess it's hard to be sure, though.

 

[whatthewhat]

I don't think any team that's not a "player away" makes a trade without have a an agreement for an extension in hand. If he truly wants to go that route then it will limit his potential suitors. I'd still think someone who thought they were on the cusp would offer more than the one you had. I guess it's hard to be sure, though.

And how exactly do you have an agreement for an extension in hand? It is collusion to talk contract terms with a player that isn't under team control.

Can you provide one example where a team has traded for an impending free agent and announced a contract extension shortly after the trade?

 

[Cyforce]

And how exactly do you have an agreement for an extension in hand? It is collusion to talk contract terms with a player that isn't under team control.

Can you provide one example where a team has traded for an impending free agent and announced a contract extension shortly after the trade?

Which sport has the legal tampering rule where a team can get permission to talk extension prior to finalizing a trade. Thinking NBA?

 

[ZRF]

And how exactly do you have an agreement for an extension in hand? It is collusion to talk contract terms with a player that isn't under team control.

Can you provide one example where a team has traded for an impending free agent and announced a contract extension shortly after the trade?

Honestly I have no idea and with the MLB (and other leagues) taking a harder tampering stance, that might be hard to gauge. Historically though I think in many instances teams have at LEAST received some kind of word on their chances of signing an extension before making such a trade.

 

[ISUCubswin]

Bellinger officially declines his option; will get $5 million from the Cubs this year. Cubs "save" $7 million.

Cubs decline Boxberger's option; will pay him $800k to not play instead of $5 million to play.

Still waiting on Stroman and Hendricks mutual options and Gomes club option.