***Official 2023 Chicago Cubs Thread***

[1UNI2ISU]

For me, Horton is the only untouchable in a Soto trade as long as you get a negotiating window. Though I'd have a really tough time parting with PCA or Caisse.

Alcantara, Brown, Lottery Ticket (Arias?) and cash for Soto seems about right.

 

[BigJCy]

 

[BigJCy]

This might have been my favorite moment as a Cubs fan. The World Series Game 7 win I was too much of a nervous wreck. That last out of the WS was more just relief.

 

[BigJCy]

 

[CycloneErik]

I have no idea who he is. I assume it's all over, Jed screwed up, and it's all over.

 

[ISUCubswin]

Breslow is credited with renovating our broken pitching infrustructure. He’s widely considered a baseball genius and was so even during his playing days. He’s been here since 2019.

That being said, I think Carter Hawkins, our GM, probably deserves much of that credit, and we will be fine

 

[SaraV]

Dorothy reminded me so much of my Cubs-loving grandma, who I lost in March of 1998. This makes me sad. RIP Dorothy.

 

[ISUCubswin]

Jim Bowden of The Athletic came out with his Free Agent contract predictions. I usually hesitate with these because a lot of it seems to be a guessing game so I compared his results on predicting bats to determine if he seems to be reliable. I did not include Carlos Correa because of his **** show mess last year.

Here's what I've got:

Aaron Judge
Prediction: 8 year, $330 Million ($41.25 AAV)
Actual: 9 year, $360 Million ($40 AAV)

Trea Turner
Prediction: 8 year, $264 Million ($33 AAV)
Actual: 11 year, $300 Million ($27 AAV)

Xander Bogaerts
Prediction: 7 year, $196 Million ($28 AAV)
Actual: 11 year, $280 Million ($25 AAV)

Dansby Swanson
Prediction: 6 year, $154 Million ($25.5 AAV)
Actual: 7 year, $177 Million ($25.25 AAV)

And while it's so hard to tell on players coming in from Japan, figured I'd throw this one in there:

Kodai Senga
Prediction: 3 year, $72 Million ($24 AAV)
Actual: 5 year, $75 Million ($15 AAV)

 

[ISUCubswin]

Why I post that is to show bats Bowden links to the Cubs/have relationships with the Cubs.

Cody Bellinger prediction: Six years, $144 million, $24 AAV. I would have zero issue going with that.

Jeimer Candelario: Two years, $15 Million, $7.5 AAV. I would have zero issue going with that.

Matt Chapman: Six years, $127 Million, $21 AAV. Puke.

 

[CYdTracked]

I think he'll be off on Bellinger especially if the Yankees get into the bidding Boras probably is starting talks with a number that is 200+ and see how high teams are willing to go. If he's close to the 144 the Cubs should not hesitate at that number. I'm not high on Candelario regardless of his number. He got hot early this year but overall he's just been a journeyman that's not done anything special. I guess at that number if he busts they did let Mancini go for about the same ammount so it wouldn't be horrible. I'd pass on Chapman at that price.

 

[tyrelrobert]

Bruce Levine said that it may only take Morel to get Soto, which seems like a no-brainer. Padres really like Morel so even if it is Morel + a mid prospect you do that in a heartbeat

 

[CyState85]

Bruce Levine said that it may only take Morel to get Soto, which seems like a no-brainer. Padres really like Morel so even if it is Morel + a mid prospect you do that in a heartbeat

Soto going to his 3rd organization before hitting free agency and only being 25 doesn’t add up.

Also, no way does Morel get that deal done.

 

[1UNI2ISU]

Soto going to his 3rd organization before hitting free agency and only being 25 doesn’t add up.

Also, no way does Morel get that deal done.

Morel + a lottery ticket probably does. The Padres desperately want to shed salary and the Cubs have plenty of space to take on the $30M he's going to get in his last arb year.

Neither trade is really Soto's fault. The Nats were shedding salary for a sale after the World Series and the Padres are in the same boat. He's the only guy that could get both franchises salary relief plus a decent prospect return.

Make the deal. Move Happ to first base. Sign Yamamoto. Then figure out where the Bellinger market is.

 

[CyState85]

The Cubs are in a weird spot…do you see what you have or throw money at Free Agency? I feel like Mervis wasn’t given a fair shake and Velazquez was traded too soon—-I’m afraid Canario and Mervis may be traded as one of those lotto tickets.

 

[ISUCubswin]

We have a **** ton of OFs in our farm that it’ll be manageable to lose Canario, Davis, Alcantara, or Caissie for a guy like Soto.

It’ll also be manageable to lose a guy like Mervis if you get Bellinger or Alonso. They’re only 3 years apart in age so it’s not like we’re giving up youth.

The interesting thing will be the attempt to create space for both of them. Do you just go over the CBA? Do you trade Stroman if he opts in?

 

[Cyforce]

Let's say we trade Morel + for Soto and resign Bellinger. I think it plays out like this.

Soto obviously plays basically everyday.
Happ and Suzuki become a straight platoon.
Suzuki adds about half DH ABs.
Bellinger, PCA and Mervis combo 1B/CF.
Live with Madrigal/ Mastrobuoni at 3B hoping Shaw is ready sooner than later as a cost saver.

Work Canario into the platoon mix early if he's productive. Let it be known Caissie and Alcantara are going to be factors late 24 or early 25. Somebody should blink and ease off the no trade clause.

As for the rotation sign an ace. Forget the cap.
for a year. Hendricks is an affordable 5th starter, Stroman is pricey middle rotation but will be replaced by Horton in 25. JA and HW in long relief give us great depth. JW can start the year in Iowa. Brown likely to the pen for now.

Finally, Smyly may be a guy a small market could take a flyer on as a cheap starter. He went from dominant starter to garbage starter to solid reliever all in one season so it seams he'd be worth the risk as if he doesn't get back to form he could still be a usable bullpen piece.

 

[ISUCubswin]

Let's say we trade Morel + for Soto and resign Bellinger. I think it plays out like this.

Soto obviously plays basically everyday.
Happ and Suzuki become a straight platoon.
Suzuki adds about half DH ABs.
Bellinger, PCA and Mervis combo 1B/CF.
Live with Madrigal/ Mastrobuoni at 3B hoping Shaw is ready sooner than later as a cost saver.

Work Canario into the platoon mix early if he's productive. Let it be known Caissie and Alcantara are going to be factors late 24 or early 25. Somebody should blink and ease off the no trade clause.

As for the rotation sign an ace. Forget the cap.
for a year. Hendricks is an affordable 5th starter, Stroman is pricey middle rotation but will be replaced by Horton in 25. JA and HW in long relief give us great depth. JW can start the year in Iowa. Brown likely to the pen for now.

Finally, Smyly may be a guy a small market could take a flyer on as a cheap starter. He went from dominant starter to garbage starter to solid reliever all in one season so it seams he'd be worth the risk as if he doesn't get back to form he could still be a usable bullpen piece.

I like it, my only concern is not having guaranteed dude at 3B and 1B/CF.

I could see a world where Happ moves to CF when Soto is in LF, but we'd still have a hole at 3B. I could sleep at night with Madrigal/Mastro, but the Cubs best lineup lets both of those guys serve as utility guys.

I'm curious if there is a world we can take what you have and also add Bieber/Ramirez from the Guardians. Wonder if they'd take Stroman/PCA/Ferris/Traintos.

 

[CYdTracked]

We have a **** ton of OFs in our farm that it’ll be manageable to lose Canario, Davis, Alcantara, or Caissie for a guy like Soto.

It’ll also be manageable to lose a guy like Mervis if you get Bellinger or Alonso. They’re only 3 years apart in age so it’s not like we’re giving up youth.

The interesting thing will be the attempt to create space for both of them. Do you just go over the CBA? Do you trade Stroman if he opts in?

Out of the OF glut of prospects I'd prefer Davis and Caissie be the 2 they prefer to lose. Davis just can't stay healthy and hasn't looked great when he was this year. Cassie may be more of a DH than a full time OF. Just feels like Canario and Alcantara may have the biggest upsides and would hate to trade away possible studs for a 1 year rental. Would not sweat losing Morel and a lesser prospect but if you are going to deal from some of your top guys would like to find a guy that has more than 1 year left and fills a need where we don't have depth of prospects like the corner infield spots.

 

[ISUCubswin]

Monday by 4:00 we will know about Stroman and Hendricks.

Also Bellinger and Boxberger but I’m guessing those will be opt outs

 

[BigJCy]