Let me clarify my position.
I don't think they should tank. I think Kirk Cousins, flawed as he may be, is still their best option at quarterback. I think the roster has talent, especially on the offensive side of the ball. I think there are players that need to be cut on the defensive side of the ball who are not worth their contract, and that's where most of the changes need to be made.
That's my preferred way forward.
But, if they do move off of Kirk, and sign some journeyman QB, making it clear their intention is to draft a quarterback in the first round in 2023, then having the highest pick possible gives them the best chance to select the quarterback that they evaluate as the best, without having to mortgage the future by trading up. That has worked (Mahomes) but there are plenty of examples of it not working.
Counting on the ability to draft a successful first round QB is an incredibly risky plan. Drafting a quality quarterback is far from a sure thing, even if you have the number 1 pick. But with that said, the higher your pick, the more options you give yourself. If you're sitting at 12, it's less likely that you will have the opportunity to draft the player you have the highest grade on, than if you were at 3. That's just math. Certainly there can be exceptions to that, and we've all seen talented quarterbacks fall in the draft, there's still zero guarantee that will happen.
And so, if the Vikings are determined to take a quarterback in the first round of 2023, and want to maximize their chances of being able to draft the one they evaluate as best, as risky of a proposition as that is, having the highest pick possible increases their odds of being able to do that.
To be clear, I don't think that they should do that, though.