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NBA: ***Official 2019 NBA Playoffs Thread***

CyJack13 said:
That's interesting, I would take the under on 54 wins for the Lakers in a second if that's what Vegas actually offers it at.
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What is interesting about it, to me, is the way they are projecting the win totals once you kind of step back and sort them into qualitative "tiers," like this below...

76ers // Rockets
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Lakers // Warriors // Bucks // Clippers
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Nuggets // Jazz
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Thunder (??? not anymore) PELICANS???

It would be funny if the Rockets -- the ones who were the quietest this offseason and left for dead on the side of the competitive highway -- would be the next ones to win. They are still a really good team despite their losses to Golden State the past two years.
 
Is it just me, or does the NBA seem like it's turning into old WCW or WWE from the late 90's when everybody was teaming up against each other? Players are known now by just their first name, nickname or initials. I can't wait until they start doing the Mean Jean Okerlund interviews before and after games. Maybe at halftime too.
 
Sigmapolis said:
View attachment 65082

Their model does not love the Kawhi-George team-up in Los Angeles that much.

Still pretty bullish on the Curry-DAR-Draymond-Looney Dubs, too, especially if Klay comes back and is somewhat effective for them as a #6 or #7 seed in the playoffs.

Seems they love the Sixers, though.
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It's hard to see the Clippers being tied with the Nuggets for the worst defense in the Top 10. At least not when it really matters and the Clippers are running Kawhi and George out there 35+ minutes a game.
 
Dandy said:
Couple teams getting thrown out there:
Miami (very popular choice), Detroit, Minnesota and Houston.

Houston has to include CP3, right? Otherwise how would they afford the 2nd, T-3rd and 5th highest salaries???
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It could just be people saying don't count out Morey. Just like the Jimmy Butler sign and trade stuff, the Rockets were linked to him despite having absolutely no cap space and having to either basically dump their entire roster or involve other teams to move CP3, neither of which seemed realistic.
 
Doc said:
It's hard to see the Clippers being tied with the Nuggets for the worst defense in the Top 10. At least not when it really matters and the Clippers are running Kawhi and George out there 35+ minutes a game.
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At the risk of sounding like a heretic, I will quote their aside about this...

the metrics have disagreed with the eye test for years about the quality of Kawhi’s D
 
Sigmapolis said:
What is interesting about it, to me, is the way they are projecting the win totals once you kind of step back and sort them into qualitative "tiers," like this below...

76ers // Rockets
---
---
Lakers // Warriors // Bucks // Clippers
---
Nuggets // Jazz
---
---
Thunder (??? not anymore) PELICANS???

It would be funny if the Rockets -- the ones who were the quietest this offseason and left for dead on the side of the competitive highway -- would be the next ones to win. They are still a really good team despite their losses to Golden State the past two years.
Click to expand...

I get the Rockets, it makes sense for them to run it back. I get why the numbers like Philly, but they have some real fit issues to work through that are not something that you can easily work into an algorithm.

The Bucks seem a little low to me after only losing Brogdon. The Warriors, I wonder if that's looking at a healthy Klay. I like both the Nuggets and Jazz to have more regular season wins than the Lakers.
 
CyJack13 said:
I get the Rockets, it makes sense for them to run it back. I get why the numbers like Philly, but they have some real fit issues to work through that are not something that you can easily work into an algorithm.

The Bucks seem a little low to me after only losing Brogdon. The Warriors, I wonder if that's looking at a healthy Klay. I like both the Nuggets and Jazz to have more regular season wins than the Lakers.
Click to expand...

All good points. Talking through it a little...

I agree that the Rockets should just run it back. The deck might be clear for them. That team should have won it two years ago and definitely could this upcoming season.

These models are good at adding up projected efficiencies by player on the roster but bad about "fit" -- they do assume some distribution of minutes, so you cannot jam five big men into your lineup, but they do not really try to model if PG X is going to work next to SG Y given their size and defensive abilities to not get torched by Steph and Klay in the playoffs, if you happen to run into them. I think their conclusion that Philadelphia probably has the most depth and talent of anybody in the NBA is correct, though, and they should be one of the favorites.

Brogdon was/is really good. He is a great 3&D guy. He will be missed.

I think they are presuming some sort of partial season from Klay.

I agree with you that the Nuggets and Jazz should probably win more games than the Lakers, especially if they are going to stagger AD/LBJ to rest them during the regular season.
 
Sigmapolis said:
At the risk of sounding like a heretic, I will quote their aside about this...

the metrics have disagreed with the eye test for years about the quality of Kawhi’s D
Click to expand...

Yeah, they also have guys like Harrell and Beverly who play really hard so you assume they're good defenders, and I think the numbers bear that out, but they may not be as good as the general sentiment either.
 
Doc said:
Yeah, they also have guys like Harrell and Beverly who play really hard so you assume they're good defenders, and I think the numbers bear that out, but they may not be as good as the general sentiment either.
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They have their individual player and minutes projections for the Clippers...

upload_2019-7-8_14-38-34.png

They think PG13 and Harrell are really good defenders. They think that Kawhi and Beverly are overrated despite the effort. The rest of their guys are meh to bad. Significant minutes for Shamet and Lou Williams really screws up their efficiency on defense, but I guess you could argue that you are not going to play them very much in the playoffs. So...

To be fair, they have a playoff version of the Clippers in the model where they (1.) shorten up the rotations and (2.) seem to give Kawhi and some others an extra gear...

upload_2019-7-8_14-40-26.png

I would just counter that I do not know if that gains you anything in the relative sense. Every team shortens their rotation in the postseason, and lots of guys have proven themselves, either by will or design through a regular season pitch count, to have an extra gear in the playoffs. The Clippers will not be unique for that. Most top teams will manage minutes.
 
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Sigmapolis said:
All good points. Talking through it a little...

I agree that the Rockets should just run it back. The deck might be clear for them. That team should have won it two years ago and definitely could this upcoming season.

These models are good at adding up projected efficiencies by player on the roster but bad about "fit" -- they do assume some distribution of minutes, so you cannot jam five big men into your lineup, but they do not really try to model if PG X is going to work next to SG Y given their size and defensive abilities to not get torched by Steph and Klay in the playoffs, if you happen to run into them. I think their conclusion that Philadelphia probably has the most depth and talent of anybody in the NBA is correct, though, and they should be one of the favorites.

Brogdon was/is really good. He is a great 3&D guy. He will be missed.

I think they are presuming some sort of partial season from Klay.

I agree with you that the Nuggets and Jazz should probably win more games than the Lakers, especially if they are going to stagger AD/LBJ to rest them during the regular season.
Click to expand...

Yep, that's the main reason I don't expect the Lakers to be a top four seed in the West. Any lineup with LeBron and Davis is going to be tough, doesn't matter who else is out there with them. But you start looking at the lineups you get when it's only one of those guys on the floor, something like Cousins-Davis-Dudley-Green-Rondo or McGee-Kuzma-LeBron-KCP-Cook, those are worse lineups than the 2017 Pelicans or 2018 Lakers. And go one step further and look at games where either Davis or LeBron sits and the other is on the bench, those are going to be high lottery team type lineups on the floor.

I don't think the Lakers will worry that much about seeding, their one goal has to be get into the playoffs with a healthy and relatively fresh LeBron and AD, but that's not necessarily going to be easy to do. AD has had a long list of injuries, LeBron is showing the first signs of slowing down. It will probably be a benefit health wise that both of them missed the playoffs last year. But it's an entirely new team, it's going to take some time for them to come together, they don't have a lot of front office stability, they hired a top assistant who wanted the head job as well, if they get off to a slow start can Vogel resist the temptation to ramp up the workload on AD and LeBron if his job is on the line?
 
Dandy said:
Couple teams getting thrown out there:
Miami (very popular choice), Detroit, Minnesota and Houston.

Houston has to include CP3, right? Otherwise how would they afford the 2nd, T-3rd and 5th highest salaries???
Click to expand...
Hornets: Westbrook is the face of Jordan Brand. The owner of the Hornets is...
Bulls: Plenty of trade pieces (Porter, Dunn, Cater, LaVine)
Mavericks: RW plus Doncic and Prozingis. Could be fun!
Pistons: RW plus Blake and Drummond. Could do damage in the East.
Heat: Popular choice, sending Winslow, Dragic and Adebayo to OKC.
Spurs: Basically flip Kawhi for Westbrook by sending DeRozan and Poetl to OKC.
 
The Hawks have done such a good job the last couple of off seasons. I like both the Damian Jones and Parker deals for them. I wonder if Schlenk was the straw the stirred the drink in the Golden State front office. Definitely will be catching some of their games on League Pass this year.
 
Dandy said:
Hornets: Westbrook is the face of Jordan Brand. The owner of the Hornets is...
Bulls: Plenty of trade pieces (Porter, Dunn, Cater, LaVine)
Mavericks: RW plus Doncic and Prozingis. Could be fun!
Pistons: RW plus Blake and Drummond. Could do damage in the East.
Heat: Popular choice, sending Winslow, Dragic and Adebayo to OKC.
Spurs: Basically flip Kawhi for Westbrook by sending DeRozan and Poetl to OKC.
Click to expand...

I wonder if the Bulls could do the trade without Porter. Westbrook, Porter, Markannen, and Thad Young looks like a pretty competitive foursome to start with assuming Carter and Lavine go in the trade. I'd think Porter and Markannen would be about as good as it gets for fits for Westbrook.

Pistons make a lot sense as well. Griffin looked really good last year, and while he is a good point forward, he can use a little more help.

IMO, the Heat would be better off passing.
 
Doc said:
The Hawks have done such a good job the last couple of off seasons. I like both the Damian Jones and Parker deals for them. I wonder if Schlenk was the straw the stirred the drink in the Golden State front office. Definitely will be catching some of their games on League Pass this year.
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I actually like Omari Spellman a lot more than Jones, but the Hawks seem to be fed up with him not being able to stay in shape. Big guys who can shoot the 3 and protect the rim are super valuable, but he's gotta keep the weight off.
 
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