You always want to win the battle for local talent, but I will gladly trade IL and NJ recruits for those from FL, TX, and CA. In 2013, the top 3 states for D1 recruits were TX (368), FL (350), and CA (349). IL was 8[SUP]th[/SUP] with 82, NJ was 11[SUP]th[/SUP] with 63, and IA was tied for 33[SUP]rd[/SUP] with 13 (Football Signing Day - MaxPreps).
Another interesting stat is the ratio of high school football players to D1 signees. This reference is a couple years old (RivalsHigh - Talent pool: Where the DI signees come from), but in 2011 FL was tops with a ratio of 111 (to 1). The ratio in CA was 412 and in TX it was 454. The 3 states where UI is hammering us? NJ had a ratio of 575, IL's was 679 and IA's was 2161. I don’t have data to support this assertion, but if you look at big-school football in FL, the ratio is A LOT more favorable than 111. I saw Coach Mess at a spring game in FL this year and there were at least 5 kids with ISU offers playing in the game. Since the talent density is 6 times higher in FL than in IL your recruiting dollar (and time) go a lot further. I recognize that there is a lot of competition for those kids, but if you can get them on campus for a visit the program sells itself.
It looks to me like CPR is fishing in better waters than Ferentz. I think we should keep fighting for the in-state kids, but with the exception of a few select recruits the Hawks can have NJ and IL.
Good stuff. Not to mention, we've gotten the #1 in-state 2 years in a row. The previous two years, the #1 player left the state. And over the last 3 years, we've gotten more in-state kids than Iowa has.
Is the in-state talent level better this year than years past? We won't know that for a few more years.