***Official 2013 Bracketology Thread***
- Thread starter CarlHungus
- Start date
Tomorrow's the day. Most every bubble team in action. We'll know a lot more about ISU's postseason possibilities in 24 hours. Bubble watch for Thursday with teams to cheer for in bold.
A-10
St. Joe's vs Xavier - Xavier probably needs 2-3 wins, but the sooner they lose the better.
George Washington vs UMass - UMass also needs at least 2-3 wins, so a loss here eliminates them just like Xavier.
ACC
Wake Forest vs Maryland - Maryland needs a deep run.
Big 12
Iowa State vs Oklahoma - Bubble elimination game. Winner's in, loser sweats out Saunday but probably in.
Baylor vs Oklahoma State - Baylor needs a deep run. BU winning helps ISU's RPI, but they would have to win the tourney to get into the top 50 RPI. That would not be good. Also, **** Baylor.
Big East
Cincinnati vs Georgetown - Cincy likely in, but a loss causes a little doubt.
Villanova vs Louisville - Same as Cincy. The Big East bubble picture is pretty set IMO.
Big 10
Minnesota vs Illinois - Bubble elimination game. Similar to ISU vs OU with both teams likely in. UM will have lost 11 of last 16 with a loss tomorrow.
Northwestern vs Iowa - Suck my **** Iowa.
C-USA
UAB vs Southern Miss - SMU needs a deep run.
PAC 12
Arizona State vs UCLA - ASU still need a deep run.
SEC
Miss State vs Tennessee - A loss kills any shot Tennessee had and a win keeps their hopes alive. Still far from a lock.
Vanderbilt vs Arkansas - The hogs still need a deep run.
WAC
UTSA vs Louisiana Tech - Tech could possibly get an at-large
A-10
St. Joe's vs Xavier - Xavier probably needs 2-3 wins, but the sooner they lose the better.
George Washington vs UMass - UMass also needs at least 2-3 wins, so a loss here eliminates them just like Xavier.
ACC
Wake Forest vs Maryland - Maryland needs a deep run.
Big 12
Iowa State vs Oklahoma - Bubble elimination game. Winner's in, loser sweats out Saunday but probably in.
Baylor vs Oklahoma State - Baylor needs a deep run. BU winning helps ISU's RPI, but they would have to win the tourney to get into the top 50 RPI. That would not be good. Also, **** Baylor.
Big East
Cincinnati vs Georgetown - Cincy likely in, but a loss causes a little doubt.
Villanova vs Louisville - Same as Cincy. The Big East bubble picture is pretty set IMO.
Big 10
Minnesota vs Illinois - Bubble elimination game. Similar to ISU vs OU with both teams likely in. UM will have lost 11 of last 16 with a loss tomorrow.
Northwestern vs Iowa - Suck my **** Iowa.
C-USA
UAB vs Southern Miss - SMU needs a deep run.
PAC 12
Arizona State vs UCLA - ASU still need a deep run.
SEC
Miss State vs Tennessee - A loss kills any shot Tennessee had and a win keeps their hopes alive. Still far from a lock.
Vanderbilt vs Arkansas - The hogs still need a deep run.
WAC
UTSA vs Louisiana Tech - Tech could possibly get an at-large
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I hope N'western wins in a big way tomorrow!
I'd party hard if NW won tomorrow night. But I fully expect Iowa to win that one. NW is worse than Nebraska. Then Iowa likely gets blowin out by MSU on Saturday.
At the risk of sounding like I’m contradicting myself (or at least my five-days-ago self and my “don’t evaluate conference tournament games like they’re ‘extra credit’ but extention of regular seasonâ€), an Iowa State win over OU would soften the edges of our anxiety.
The ISU-OU game alone doesn’t have a lot of resume impact for either team. OU’s resume has more bulk than ISU’s, and if Sooners hadn’t lost to TCU, Oklahoma would be realistically safe either way. I almost would have preferred that — might have reduced the motivational factor for our opponent.
At this point, the worst-case is, numerous bubble teams currently below Iowa State on the S-curve catch fire, and teams in one-bid conferences that didn't get auto-bid get benefit of the doubt.
Advantage of ISU getting to the next round: Cyclones get to play another game. Lose, and you can’t do anything about it.
The ISU-OU game alone doesn’t have a lot of resume impact for either team. OU’s resume has more bulk than ISU’s, and if Sooners hadn’t lost to TCU, Oklahoma would be realistically safe either way. I almost would have preferred that — might have reduced the motivational factor for our opponent.
At this point, the worst-case is, numerous bubble teams currently below Iowa State on the S-curve catch fire, and teams in one-bid conferences that didn't get auto-bid get benefit of the doubt.
Advantage of ISU getting to the next round: Cyclones get to play another game. Lose, and you can’t do anything about it.
A fairly comprehensive assessment, and accurate.
If about 85% of those non-ISU things came to pass, we're in.
Assuming no assurance about anything, one potential quibble:
I prefer that LaTech just wins the WAC. I don't think that team has any business being considered for at-large, but I've seen out-of-left-field things in past tournaments (sometimes it's "small fry," other times middling power conference teams).
Tech is less likely than Middle Tennessee creeping in. Not a lot to see there, either, but lofty RPI would make me nervous. I'd be more worried about bubble team action than the solid teams from "one-bid" leagues getting a pass, but one team like that is enough.
If about 85% of those non-ISU things came to pass, we're in.
Assuming no assurance about anything, one potential quibble:
I prefer that LaTech just wins the WAC. I don't think that team has any business being considered for at-large, but I've seen out-of-left-field things in past tournaments (sometimes it's "small fry," other times middling power conference teams).
Tech is less likely than Middle Tennessee creeping in. Not a lot to see there, either, but lofty RPI would make me nervous. I'd be more worried about bubble team action than the solid teams from "one-bid" leagues getting a pass, but one team like that is enough.
Boise State's bubble just burst with them losing to San Diego State tonight/morning. Also, Doug G. can eat a big one for mentioning the I-State vs Hampton game in the 1st half.
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just came across this.
ASAP Sports Transcripts - Basketball - 2013 - PRESS CONFERENCES - NATIONAL COLLEGIATE ATHLETIC ASSOCIATION MEDIA CONFERENCE - March 13
lengthy, but a good read. They have started the bracketing process. Hopefully ISU locks a big later this morning.
ASAP Sports Transcripts - Basketball - 2013 - PRESS CONFERENCES - NATIONAL COLLEGIATE ATHLETIC ASSOCIATION MEDIA CONFERENCE - March 13
lengthy, but a good read. They have started the bracketing process. Hopefully ISU locks a big later this morning.
Q. There have been a couple games that ended on controversial calls, maybe should have gone the other way after replay. How do you look at those when it could be a potential top‑50 win that they could have got, and the other team got a win maybe they shouldn't have? Is there an asterisk?
MIKE BOBINSKI: Good question.
We're aware of a number of those. The reality is we all hope, and I can't predict this or really give you a clear answer on that without us going through this process a little deeper than we are right now, but I would hope any one game won't be the difference between an in or out in terms of selection to the field or a significant change agent when it comes to their seeding position.
Again, you got to look at it and say, It's a single came in the course of a 30‑plus game season and keep it in that perspective. It minimizes the impact.
We are aware and have information as to some of those difficult decisions that happened at the end of games where things could have gone one way or the other. But I don't know that I expect those will have a real significant impact on either selection or seeding decisions.
Q. You talk about criteria, how it's different for everyone. How has yours evolved in the five years on the committee? Was it something when you first came in and now it's changed over the five years?
MIKE BOBINSKI: Yeah, I think it has. My first year, it was all kind of a blur in a lot of ways. I think I got a much better feel as time went by of what I felt distinguished teams in my mind as being, first of all, capable, amongst the best in the country, and then even from a finer distinction point as to where they belonged in the field.
As I thought about it, I think those real key decision points are, for me again, the ability to win on the road, the willingness to challenge yourself in the non‑conference portion of the schedule, put yourself in different circumstances against different teams other than those that you're required to play because of what conference you belong to.
I think those have become things over time that matter to me, not exclusively by any stretch. You still have to look at the whole picture. I know the non‑conference strength of schedule question gets asked an awful lot. We as a committee have been on record now for some time encouraging people to play stronger non‑conference strength of schedules.
The reality of that is if you don't, it doesn't eliminate you from the field. It doesn't prevent you from getting in the tournament. It shrinks your margin for error. If you don't challenge yourself significantly in the non‑conference portion of the schedule, what you have to do is show us during the January and February period of the year you are clearly a team that deserves selection to the field or deserves to be seeded in a favorable spot. You've given us less evidence, less opportunities to evaluate you. It's not a disqualifier by any means.
(Relates to Iowa ^)
MIKE BOBINSKI: Good question.
We're aware of a number of those. The reality is we all hope, and I can't predict this or really give you a clear answer on that without us going through this process a little deeper than we are right now, but I would hope any one game won't be the difference between an in or out in terms of selection to the field or a significant change agent when it comes to their seeding position.
Again, you got to look at it and say, It's a single came in the course of a 30‑plus game season and keep it in that perspective. It minimizes the impact.
We are aware and have information as to some of those difficult decisions that happened at the end of games where things could have gone one way or the other. But I don't know that I expect those will have a real significant impact on either selection or seeding decisions.
Q. You talk about criteria, how it's different for everyone. How has yours evolved in the five years on the committee? Was it something when you first came in and now it's changed over the five years?
MIKE BOBINSKI: Yeah, I think it has. My first year, it was all kind of a blur in a lot of ways. I think I got a much better feel as time went by of what I felt distinguished teams in my mind as being, first of all, capable, amongst the best in the country, and then even from a finer distinction point as to where they belonged in the field.
As I thought about it, I think those real key decision points are, for me again, the ability to win on the road, the willingness to challenge yourself in the non‑conference portion of the schedule, put yourself in different circumstances against different teams other than those that you're required to play because of what conference you belong to.
I think those have become things over time that matter to me, not exclusively by any stretch. You still have to look at the whole picture. I know the non‑conference strength of schedule question gets asked an awful lot. We as a committee have been on record now for some time encouraging people to play stronger non‑conference strength of schedules.
The reality of that is if you don't, it doesn't eliminate you from the field. It doesn't prevent you from getting in the tournament. It shrinks your margin for error. If you don't challenge yourself significantly in the non‑conference portion of the schedule, what you have to do is show us during the January and February period of the year you are clearly a team that deserves selection to the field or deserves to be seeded in a favorable spot. You've given us less evidence, less opportunities to evaluate you. It's not a disqualifier by any means.
(Relates to Iowa ^)
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All we need to do today is take care of our own business against Oklahoma and win, and we will make the NCAA Tournament. Heck I'd love to win the Big 12 tourney to leave no doubt that we will make the Big Dance. That way we don't have to worry about the committee potentially leaving us out.
As for Louisiana Tech, if they lose in their conference tourney, there's basically no way they're making the NCAA Tournament on an at-large. They haven't beaten anyone of note, and they just lost two in a row to top three teams in their conference on the road. While they have solid computer numbers, they just don't have the wins to back them up.
I think Boise State still will end up making the tournament. They have a road win against Creighton under their belt, plus three other conference wins at home. They'll have to sweat out other bubble team's games, but they overall have a better resume than most of the bubble teams below them right now.
As for Louisiana Tech, if they lose in their conference tourney, there's basically no way they're making the NCAA Tournament on an at-large. They haven't beaten anyone of note, and they just lost two in a row to top three teams in their conference on the road. While they have solid computer numbers, they just don't have the wins to back them up.
I think Boise State still will end up making the tournament. They have a road win against Creighton under their belt, plus three other conference wins at home. They'll have to sweat out other bubble team's games, but they overall have a better resume than most of the bubble teams below them right now.
Boise State is right on the cut line. Lunardi moved them out with the loss tonight to the first team out and moved Tennessee in as the last team in. It'll be close.
The SEC deserves only two teams in the tournament. That conference as a whole blows. Boise State has a better resume than the SEC teams and could beat all of those teams as well. SEC is just a useless basketball conference this year.
I don't know if they would ever consider it a win, but rather give us the benefit of the doubt compared to other teams with similar resumes.
I honestly think it would have been brought up if we were on the bubble, but meaningless to seeding as long as we're in. It clearly never hurt KU's reputation because all the experts bumped them up to a 1 seed a week after it happened.
America East - Vermont (1) - Next game vs. Albany for the Championship
A-10 - VCU, St. Louis, Butler, Temple (4)
Bubble - La Salle (RPI 41, BPI 53, SOS 86) (1)
Fringe - Massachusetts (RPI 58, BPI 85, SOS 69) (2) - La Salle needs to win at least one game in the A-10 tournament. Xavier and UMASS need to win the whole thing.
ACC - Miami, Duke, North Carolina, North Carolina State (4)
Bubble - Virginia (RPI 67, BPI 38, SOS 99) (1) - Virginia will probably face NC State in the ACC Tourney and will need to win that game to be a lock. If they lose, all their bad losses will doom this team.
Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast (1)
Big 12 - Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Iowa State (4)
Bubble - Oklahoma (RPI 33, BPI 43, SOS 21)
Fringe - Baylor (RPI 64, BPI 47, SOS 48) (1) - Today is the big day. Oklahoma vs. ISU and Baylor vs OK State. Baylor pretty much needs to get into the Big 12 Championship game to get a bid. The winner of ISU vs. OU will become an NCAA lock and the loser will be sweating it out.
Big East - Louisville, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Cincinnati, Villanova (8)
Big Sky - Weber State (1) - Must win Auto Bid.
Big South - Liberty (1)
Big Ten - Indiana, Michigan, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota (7)
Bubble - None
Fringe - Iowa (RPI 77, BPI 48, SOS 64) (1) - Non-conference schedule will be the reason Iowa does not get in.
Big West - Long Beach State (1) - Auto bid or bust.
CAA - James Madison (1)
CUSA - Memphis (1) - Regular Season Champion. Next game versus winner of Tulane and Marshall.
Fringe - Southern Mississippi (RPI 34, BPI 61, SOS 117)
Horizon - Valparaiso (1)
Ivy - Harvard - Clinched the Ivy.
MAAC - Iona (1)
MAC - Ohio (1) - The Abreu arrest and subsequent collapse of Akron has shattered any hope of an at large dream. This has become auto bid or bust. Ohio look to be the favorite in this conference if Abreu does not come back.
MEAC - Savannah State (1) - Next game vs. Morgan. Must win Auto Bid. Top 3 seeds in the MEAC have been knocked out.
Missouri Valley - Creighton, Wichita State (2) - Creighton the MVC Champion.
Mountain West - New Mexico, UNLV, Colorado State, SDSU (4)
Bubble: Boise State (RPI 40, BPI 45, SOS 80) (1) - Lost to SDSU to end their MWC tournament. Will have a long wait, but I have confidence they will be selected. They have some very good wins, played a good non-con schedule, and have great computer numbers.
Northeast - LIU Brooklyn (1) - Next game versus Mount Saint Mary's for the Championship. Must win Auto Bid. League leader Robert MOrris eliminated.
Ohio Valley - Belmont - OVC Champion
Pac-12 - Oregon, UCLA, California, Arizona, Colorado (5)
Patriot - Bucknell (1)
SEC - Florida, Missouri (2)
Bubble: Kentucky(RPI 50, BPI 44, SOS 38), Tennessee(RPI 55, BPI 60, SOS 27), Ole Miss(RPI 56, BPI 40, SOS 104) (3)
Fringe: Alabama (RPI 62, BPI 65, SOS 50) (1) - I really don't think any of these teams deserves to be in the tournament. That is my bias. However, Kentucky and Tennessee each need one win and possibly two to be solidly into the tournament. The rest need to get to the championship game. I hope they all lose.
Southern - Davidson (1) -
Southland - Stephen F. Austin (1) - Must Win Auto Bid
SWAC - Southern (1) - Next game versus Alabama A&M. Must win Auto Bid. Interesting stat, Grambling State went winless for the year.
Summit League - South Dakota State (1)
Sun Belt - Western Kentucky (1)
Bubble - Middle Tennessee (1) - Just like last year, MTSU loses in their conference tournament. Will need a lot of help to get into the tournament. (RPI 29, BPI 46, SOS 135)
WCC - Gonzaga (1)
Bubble - Saint Mary's (RPI 32, BPI 35, SOS 110) (1)
WAC - Louisiana Tech (1) - Next game versus UTSA. Must win Auto Bid.
Locks: 61
Bubble and Fringe: 13
With 61 locks, that leaves only 8 spots for 13 Bubble and Fringe teams.
A-10 - VCU, St. Louis, Butler, Temple (4)
Bubble - La Salle (RPI 41, BPI 53, SOS 86) (1)
Fringe - Massachusetts (RPI 58, BPI 85, SOS 69) (2) - La Salle needs to win at least one game in the A-10 tournament. Xavier and UMASS need to win the whole thing.
ACC - Miami, Duke, North Carolina, North Carolina State (4)
Bubble - Virginia (RPI 67, BPI 38, SOS 99) (1) - Virginia will probably face NC State in the ACC Tourney and will need to win that game to be a lock. If they lose, all their bad losses will doom this team.
Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast (1)
Big 12 - Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Iowa State (4)
Bubble - Oklahoma (RPI 33, BPI 43, SOS 21)
Fringe - Baylor (RPI 64, BPI 47, SOS 48) (1) - Today is the big day. Oklahoma vs. ISU and Baylor vs OK State. Baylor pretty much needs to get into the Big 12 Championship game to get a bid. The winner of ISU vs. OU will become an NCAA lock and the loser will be sweating it out.
Big East - Louisville, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Cincinnati, Villanova (8)
Big Sky - Weber State (1) - Must win Auto Bid.
Big South - Liberty (1)
Big Ten - Indiana, Michigan, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota (7)
Bubble - None
Fringe - Iowa (RPI 77, BPI 48, SOS 64) (1) - Non-conference schedule will be the reason Iowa does not get in.
Big West - Long Beach State (1) - Auto bid or bust.
CAA - James Madison (1)
CUSA - Memphis (1) - Regular Season Champion. Next game versus winner of Tulane and Marshall.
Fringe - Southern Mississippi (RPI 34, BPI 61, SOS 117)
Horizon - Valparaiso (1)
Ivy - Harvard - Clinched the Ivy.
MAAC - Iona (1)
MAC - Ohio (1) - The Abreu arrest and subsequent collapse of Akron has shattered any hope of an at large dream. This has become auto bid or bust. Ohio look to be the favorite in this conference if Abreu does not come back.
MEAC - Savannah State (1) - Next game vs. Morgan. Must win Auto Bid. Top 3 seeds in the MEAC have been knocked out.
Missouri Valley - Creighton, Wichita State (2) - Creighton the MVC Champion.
Mountain West - New Mexico, UNLV, Colorado State, SDSU (4)
Bubble: Boise State (RPI 40, BPI 45, SOS 80) (1) - Lost to SDSU to end their MWC tournament. Will have a long wait, but I have confidence they will be selected. They have some very good wins, played a good non-con schedule, and have great computer numbers.
Northeast - LIU Brooklyn (1) - Next game versus Mount Saint Mary's for the Championship. Must win Auto Bid. League leader Robert MOrris eliminated.
Ohio Valley - Belmont - OVC Champion
Pac-12 - Oregon, UCLA, California, Arizona, Colorado (5)
Patriot - Bucknell (1)
SEC - Florida, Missouri (2)
Bubble: Kentucky(RPI 50, BPI 44, SOS 38), Tennessee(RPI 55, BPI 60, SOS 27), Ole Miss(RPI 56, BPI 40, SOS 104) (3)
Fringe: Alabama (RPI 62, BPI 65, SOS 50) (1) - I really don't think any of these teams deserves to be in the tournament. That is my bias. However, Kentucky and Tennessee each need one win and possibly two to be solidly into the tournament. The rest need to get to the championship game. I hope they all lose.
Southern - Davidson (1) -
Southland - Stephen F. Austin (1) - Must Win Auto Bid
SWAC - Southern (1) - Next game versus Alabama A&M. Must win Auto Bid. Interesting stat, Grambling State went winless for the year.
Summit League - South Dakota State (1)
Sun Belt - Western Kentucky (1)
Bubble - Middle Tennessee (1) - Just like last year, MTSU loses in their conference tournament. Will need a lot of help to get into the tournament. (RPI 29, BPI 46, SOS 135)
WCC - Gonzaga (1)
Bubble - Saint Mary's (RPI 32, BPI 35, SOS 110) (1)
WAC - Louisiana Tech (1) - Next game versus UTSA. Must win Auto Bid.
Locks: 61
Bubble and Fringe: 13
With 61 locks, that leaves only 8 spots for 13 Bubble and Fringe teams.
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