I actually picked UNI to win Valley auto-bid in my Championship Week prediction thread. (Not that I should be trusted for any reason :twitcy
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***Official 2013 Bracketology Thread***
- Thread starter CarlHungus
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I actually picked UNI to win Valley auto-bid in my Championship Week prediction thread. (Not that I should be trusted for any reason :twitcy
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Its very good to see teams just below us losing tonight. I just hope other teams like ahem... Iowa stepping up to take their place after tonight win over Illinois and a likely home win over Nebraska...
Did you the "resume" they posted for EIU during the game? The only bad loss they listed on Va Tech....no mention of Nebraska shellacking.
or Purdue?
Iowa is gonna need to beat Nebraska and win the next 2 to have a shot. The last one will likely be against Michigan St. With all the bubble teams choking in front of Iowa they have a small chance. Probably 5%, better then 0% I had before today.
Exactly, it just listed Va Tech. Guess the BTN can't be listing their own league team as a bad loss.
Pleeez ISU, beat OSU on Wednesday -- enough teams playing their way out, a win could build some serious cushion.
Exactly, it just listed Va Tech. Guess the BTN can't be listing their own league team as a bad loss.
I think it is because Nebraska's RPI is 102 right now. Most media only consider losses to +150 RPI teams to be bad losses (like our loss to Texas Tech at 216)
Tied us with 19 wins. Should beat nebby for 20 wins going into the tournament.
Iowa has a bunch of work to do. Need to beat Nebby, then win two in the Big 10 Tourney. There are many teams ahead of Iowa with a better resume. Thats why Iowa's RPI is still awful.
At least 1 person understands what they consider a bad loss. Nebby 106, Purdue 121 aren't considered bad losses as they aren't 150+.
They aren't good losses, that is for sure. Iowa will win 21 games this year, but will be headed to the NIT.
I think if Iowa beat Nebby and wins one in the confirm tourney they will be right on the cut line and I think they might make it in, I believe just by beating Illinios that the RPI is up to 75...
Iowa's RPI is projected to be 77 if they beat Nebraska. In the low 90's if they lose. Will have to win 2 to get it down to the 60s in the BTT.
Going to be difficult for Iowa to get in. They are going to have to get on a major run.
My thoughts on tonight's games:
Southern Miss isn't making the NCAA Tournament without winning C-USA. They still haven't beat anyone, and they picked up their first RPI sub-200 loss at Marshall tonight. Even their overinflated computer numbers won't save them.
Ole Miss held off Alabama tonight which effectively was a bubble elimination game. Although I don't think Alabama losing finishes them off, it's going to be tough to make it when you have zero top 50 wins and zero top 100 road wins to date.
If people think Iowa State is a bad road team, then Arkansas is an awful road team. They are 1-9 on the road this year with 7 of their road losses coming by 10 points or more, two of them being Vanderbilt and South Carolina. They have wins vs. Oklahoma, Florida, and Missouri, but with that bad road record and poor computer numbers, the Razorbacks will have to potentially make the finals of the SEC Tournament to have any shot at an at-large bid.
Iowa is slowly creeping back into the at-large picture with everyone in front of them losing. While they are still only 3-8 vs. the RPI Top 50 and 2-8 on the road plus have weak computer numbers and a horrible non-conference SOS, beating Illinois was huge to potentially build momentum going into Big Ten tournament action. They'll need to reach the final to even be in at-large consideration, but if everyone in front of them plays themselves out of the tournament, then the Hoks might sneak in the back door.
Southern Miss isn't making the NCAA Tournament without winning C-USA. They still haven't beat anyone, and they picked up their first RPI sub-200 loss at Marshall tonight. Even their overinflated computer numbers won't save them.
Ole Miss held off Alabama tonight which effectively was a bubble elimination game. Although I don't think Alabama losing finishes them off, it's going to be tough to make it when you have zero top 50 wins and zero top 100 road wins to date.
If people think Iowa State is a bad road team, then Arkansas is an awful road team. They are 1-9 on the road this year with 7 of their road losses coming by 10 points or more, two of them being Vanderbilt and South Carolina. They have wins vs. Oklahoma, Florida, and Missouri, but with that bad road record and poor computer numbers, the Razorbacks will have to potentially make the finals of the SEC Tournament to have any shot at an at-large bid.
Iowa is slowly creeping back into the at-large picture with everyone in front of them losing. While they are still only 3-8 vs. the RPI Top 50 and 2-8 on the road plus have weak computer numbers and a horrible non-conference SOS, beating Illinois was huge to potentially build momentum going into Big Ten tournament action. They'll need to reach the final to even be in at-large consideration, but if everyone in front of them plays themselves out of the tournament, then the Hoks might sneak in the back door.
That one win in the conference tourney is likely going to be against Nebby again. Back to back wins against Nebby with a loss to MSU will solidify their NIT bid.
There's a reason only Hok fans think they are getting in the tourney...but...but...but...besides our RPI our resume looks like everyone elses...and...and...and we played in the best basketball conference even though we dodged playing a lot of the good teams twice...i...i...i...i mean why doesn't the committee just look at kenpom?!?
This will all be taken in to consideration for the Who Has the Most Wins Tournament that doesn't exist.
Just saying that with only one more win for us, 20-11 finishing resume is probably NIT. Even the Hoks resume possibly look similar.
The NCAA is probably trying to justify the rpi for political reasons and their innate ability to be subjective in their picks. Since most of our loss games have been somewhat close, we do not benefit with rpi as much as with a kenpom ranking. Pure wins will get us over the hump.