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***Official 2013 Bracketology Thread***

SEC
Florida @ Kentucky - UK won. Likely in, but barely.
Missouri @ Tennessee - Tenn won, stays alive
Georgia @ Alabama - Bama won, stays alive
Ole Miss @ LSU - Ole Miss won, stays alive

Big East
Providence @ UConn - UConn won, Providence is done without Auto-Bid

A-10
Le Salle @ Saint Louis - SLU won, damaging loss for Le Salle, but still alive
UMass @ Rhode Island - UMass won, stays alive. RIU is bad

Big 10
Nebraska @ Iowa - Iowa won, slowly crawling back onto bubble but still needs at least 2 wins
Minnesota @ Purdue - Purdue won, Minnesota slowly playing onto bubble. UM lost 10 of last 15.

MVC
Creighton vs Indiana State - Creighton won, MVC 2 bid league now
Illinois State vs Wichita State - WSU won, MVC 2 bid league now

MWC
SDSU @ Boise State - Boise State with huge win. Likely in.

Patriot
Army vs Bucknell - Bucknell won. They play for auto-bid tomorrow and could maybe get an at-large with a loss.

Sun Belt
LA Lafayette vs Middle Tenn - MTU won. Might get at-large bid if they lose.

WCC
Gonzaga vs Loyola Mary - Gonzaga won
San Diego vs St. Mary's - San Diego is currently winning. Not a big deal as long as Gonzaga wins tomorrow.

Pac 12
Arizona State @ Arizona - ASU lost, they need a deep, deep run in the Pac 12 tourney.

A-Sun Championship
Florida Gulf Coast vs Mercer - HUGE win for FGCU. Boosts Cyclones resume with win

OVC Championship
Belmont vs Murray State - HUGE overtime win for Belmont. OVC will be a 1 bid league.

Overall a very good day for ISU, especially in the two conference championship games. Creighton and Wichita State winning helps too.
 
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Who to root for Sunday, March 10th

A-10
VCU at Temple

ACC
Maryland at Virginia - Bubble elimination game, Maryland is behind Virginia right now so go for the Terps to drag the Cavs down.

Sun Belt Semi-finals
Middle Tennessee vs Florida International

Big South Championship
Liberty vs Charleston Southern - No at-large chance, so whatever

MVC Championship
Creighton vs Wichita State - Both teams are in, so whatever.
 
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CyForPresident said:
WCC Championship
Gonzaga vs San Diego/St. Mary's - Need Gonzaga to take care of business
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Really we just can't have San Diego win this. Both Gonzaga and St. Mary's are in and both are ahead of us so it doesn't make a difference either way. San Diego would be the only bid-stealer.
 
CyFan61 said:
Really we just can't have San Diego win this. Both Gonzaga and St. Mary's are in and both are ahead of us so it doesn't make a difference either way. San Diego would be the only bid-stealer.
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Yup, I was waiting to post, but it went to OT so whatevs. Go Gaels.

Edit: Gaels win. WCC is a 2 bid league.
 
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Wanted St. Mary's to lose. ISU is competing for a seed with them. Gonzaga would have pounded San Diego. Oh well.
 
CyForPresident said:
I guess the WCC championship isn't until Monday night, so tomorrow is a pretty tame day really.

Edit: Latest ESPN Bubble Watch

Bubble Watch: Day's winners, losers, more - Men's College Basketball Nation Blog - ESPN
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I didn't realize just how bad Cincy has gotten lately. Wow. Right now, they aren't even in the tourney probably. Early in the year when we played them, they were really good and in the top 20.

And I also had no idea that Colorado was on the bubble either. I always just assume they stink every year.
 
Not sure what's up Jerry Palm's orifice, but he still has us in the play in game, and Boise has a bye. I don't have time to compare resume's, but I doubt they have beaten teams like OSU, OU, KSU and Baylor on the road. I think Baylor's win last night should help us too.

Lunardi on the other hand has us as the most solid of the "last 4 byes".

I say we're in with a bye, absent something really crazy like Baylor wins in KC, Iowa wins in Chicago etc
 
It feels so soft I just want to rest my pretty little head on it. March 7th, 2013 Bubble Tracker

America East - Stony Brook (1) - Beat Binghamton in the first round. Next up is Albany.

A-10 - VCU, St. Louis, Butler (3)
Bubble - La Salle (RPI 40, BPI 53, SOS 85), Temple (RPI 44, BPI 57, SOS 70) , Xavier (RPI 77, BPI 71, SOS 30) (3)
Fringe - Massachusetts (RPI 57, BPI 85, SOS 66) (1) - La Salle drops into the bubble due to other bubble teams winning and not clinching the A-10 title. They are still on the right side of the bubble, just don't lose in the 1st round of the A-10 tournament. Xavier and UMASS need to make a run in the tourney. Temple plays VCU today.

ACC - Miami, Duke, North Carolina, North Carolina State (4)
Bubble - Virginia (RPI 72, BPI 41, SOS 104) (1)
Fringe - Maryland (RPI 79, BPI 55, SOS 80) (1) - Maryland vs. Virginia is huge. That is all.

Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast (1)

Big 12 - Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State (3)
Bubble - Oklahoma (RPI 33, BPI 44, SOS 21), Iowa State (RPI 46, BPI 35, SOS 57) (2)
Fringe - Baylor (RPI 62, BPI 47, SOS 46) (1) - ISU got the two wins it needed. Oklahoma comes back to the bubble with that inexplicable loss to TCU. Baylor stays fringe with that insane win over Kansas. Baylor has a ton of work to do. the winner of Oklahoma vs. ISU becomes a solid lock for the NCAA Tourney.

Big East - Louisville, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Cincinnati (7)
Bubble: Villanova (RPI 52, BPI 60, SOS 26) (1)
Fringe: Providence (RPI 85, BPI 61, SOS 8) (1) - Missed chance for Providence. Could not get the win over UCONN. Will now need to get to the Big East championship game.

Big Sky - Montana (1) - Must win Auto Bid.

Big South - Liberty (1)

Big Ten - Indiana, Michigan, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota (7)
Bubble - None
Fringe - Iowa (RPI 71, BPI 49, SOS 58) (1) - Got the win over Nebraska, and need to go deep in the BIg Ten tourney. The non-con schedule is killing this team.

Big West - Long Beach State (1) - Auto bid or bust.

CAA - Northeastern (1) - Next game versus George Mason. Must win Auto Bid

CUSA - Memphis - Regular Season Champion.

Horizon - Valparaiso (1) - Next game versus Wight State for the Championship.

Ivy - Harvard - Clinched the Ivy.

MAAC - Niagara (1) - Next game vs. Iona in the semifinals. Must win Auto bid

MAC - Ohio (1) - The Abreu arrest and subsequent collapse of Akron has shattered any hope of an at large dream. This has become auto bid or bust. Ohio look to be the favorite in this conference if Abreu does not come back.

MEAC - Norfolk State (1) - Next game vs. Bethune Cookman or Coppin State. Must win Auto Bid

Missouri Valley - Creighton, Wichita State (2) - Battle wach other for the MVC Championship.

Mountain West - New Mexico, UNLV, Colorado State, SDSU (4)
Bubble: Boise State (RPI 38, BPI 45, SOS 83) (1)
Fringe - Air Force (RPI 69, BPI 86, SOS 87) (1) - Big win by Boise State over SDSU. They are looking very solid for the tournament. Air Force got a great win over New Mexico, but still need to make a run in the MWC tournament. This team has the potential to do so.

Northeast - LIU Brooklyn (1) - Next game versus Mount Saint Mary's for the Championship. Must win Auto Bid. League leader Robert MOrris eliminated.

Ohio Valley - Belmont - OVC Champion

Pac-12 - Oregon, UCLA, California, Arizona (4)
Bubble - Colorado (RPI 37, BPI 37, SOS 5) (1)
Fringe - ASU (RPI 92, BPI 67, SOS 75) (1) - Bad loss by Colorado to Oregon State. Still in ok position, but need one more win. ASU needs to win the Pac -12 tournament.

Patriot - Bucknell (1) - Fringe At Large candidate. Would be well served to win their tournament. Next game versus Lafayette for the Patriot League Championship. (RPI 51, BPI 58, SOS 169)

SEC - Florida, Missouri (2)
Bubble: Kentucky(RPI 50, BPI 46, SOS 39), Tennessee(RPI 55, BPI 59, SOS 27), Ole Miss(RPI 56, BPI 40, SOS 103) (3)
Fringe: Alabama (RPI 61, BPI 66, SOS 49), Arkansas (RPI 80, BPI 74, SOS 60) (2) - All bubble teams won on Saturday. Kentucky and Tennessee really helped themselves. The key for everyone is no bad losses. So, don't lose in the first round of the SEC tournament.

Southern - Davidson (1) - Next game versus Appalachian State in the semifinals. Must win Auto Bid

Southland - Stephen F. Austin (1) Must Win Auto Bid

SWAC - Southern (1) - Next game versus Alabama A&M or Grambling State. Must win Auto Bid

Summit League - South Dakota State (1) - Next game verus Oakland or IPFW. Must win Auto Bid

Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee (1) - ANother At Large hopeful. Again, would be best served to in the conference tournament. Next game vs. FIU (RPI 25, BPI 38, SOS 133)

WCC - Gonzaga (1)
Bubble - Saint Mary's (RPI 30, BPI 33, SOS 112)(1) - Escaped San Diego and now faces Gonzaga for the WCC Crown.

WAC - Denver (1) - Louisiana Tech has collapsed and the University of Denver is the team to beat.

Locks: 57
Bubble and Fringe: 22
With 58 locks, that leaves only 10 spots for 22 Bubble and Fringe teams.
 
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CYVADER said:
You have 9 fringe teams so figure 11 spots for 13 teams right now.
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Yup. Teams will get off of the fringe if they make runs in their respective conference tournaments. If they don't, they have no chance at the tournament.

It's actually 10 spots for 13 teams. Forgot to put CUSA on the list. Brain fart on my end.
 
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erikbj said:
I just hope we avoid vcu, this team is sick and I think I will pick them in the final 4 of my bracket.
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I won't be picking them for the Final Four but dear lord I don't want ISU to get matched up with them in a 5/12 or 6/11 game
 
I'd ratherp face VCU than a wisky type team. Their press wouldn't work on us and it would basically be a 3 point shooting contest. Our "bigs" are also athletic enough to keep with their activeness inside on the glass.
 
83Clone said:
Not sure what's up Jerry Palm's orifice, but he still has us in the play in game, and Boise has a bye. I don't have time to compare resume's, but I doubt they have beaten teams like OSU, OU, KSU and Baylor on the road. I think Baylor's win last night should help us too.

Lunardi on the other hand has us as the most solid of the "last 4 byes".

I say we're in with a bye, absent something really crazy like Baylor wins in KC, Iowa wins in Chicago etc
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Shouldn't we be wanting a Baylor win on Thursday? With the win yesterday, I think they jumped from an RPI of 73 to 61. With a big win against OSU, they could possibly jump into the top 50 RPI, giving us 2 more wins vs top 50 RPI.
 
Cysmik said:
Shouldn't we be wanting a Baylor win on Thursday? With the win yesterday, I think they jumped from an RPI of 73 to 61. With a big win against OSU, they could possibly jump into the top 50 RPI, giving us 2 more wins vs top 50 RPI.
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Correct. We want Baylor to make the championship game, but not necessarily win the championship.
 
Based off rpiforecast, it looks like Baylor's only shot to finish in the top 50 RPI is to make the championship game.
 
That was interesting. They just did a blind resume comparison of Boise State, ISU, and Kentucky. The announcers picked ISU and Boise State. Leaving out Kentucky.
 
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