They still would not have beaten Oklahoma and would have lost to Texas and possibly Okie St.
No punting!
- Thread starter brianhos
- Start date
That sounds great until you rough the kicker a few times. Trying to block is a greater risk than returning one.
This is pretty much what we did last year with Blythe back there. We would have been better off putting another guy on the line of scrimmage to try to block the kick instead.
This season, I didn't advocate going puntless, but I was damn close to suggesting it with how god-awful our defense was. We didn't punt a single time against A$M but still lost the game. I thought that the Mizzou game would have been a prime candidate for a game to go into saying "we're not punting, period" because we knew for sure our defense wasn't going to stop their offense.
actually, statistically speaking, an offenses chances of scoring only go down about 15-20% (the exact figures escape me at the moment) if you punt. Saw a story about this guy on ESPN and he made a startlingly good case for himself.
Actually that's the opposite of what I've heard - the team that doesn't punt would increase it's average score by 3 pts per game, while their opponents score would decrease by an average of 3 pts per game. Note that this data was based on NFL games where talent is more evenly distributed across all teams. Tuesday Morning Quarterback has been discussing this for several seasons now, and it turns out this Arkansas coach is a regular reader of TMQ. Everyone should read TMQ - he's a good author, understands football, and most importantly he is intelligent and discusses many topics outside football. READ TMQ!
I think we actually agreed there, and my reply was just so clunkily put together that it didn't come across.
Man, this is awesome; he's got football down to a statistical analysis....and it makes a heck of a lotta sense!
If Pulaski has a fourth-and-8 at its own 5-yard line, Kelley said his explosive offense likely will convert a first down at least 50 percent of the time. If it fails to convert, statistical data from the college level shows that an opponent acquiring the ball inside the 10-yard line scores a touchdown 90 percent of the time. If Pulaski punts away (i.e., a 40-yard punt with a 10-yard return) the other team will start with the ball on the 38-yard line and score a touchdown 77 percent of the time. The difference is only 13 percent.
If Pulaski has a fourth-and-8 at its own 5-yard line, Kelley said his explosive offense likely will convert a first down at least 50 percent of the time. If it fails to convert, statistical data from the college level shows that an opponent acquiring the ball inside the 10-yard line scores a touchdown 90 percent of the time. If Pulaski punts away (i.e., a 40-yard punt with a 10-yard return) the other team will start with the ball on the 38-yard line and score a touchdown 77 percent of the time. The difference is only 13 percent.
You could commit 3-5 more scholarships on other positions if you eliminated kickers, punters and long snappers. Just get a safety or line-backer to kick off. You would lose a few yards on ko distance but gain it back on better coverage. Just go for 2 every time. Would it still be called FOOTball?
the guy that the original article was about actually onside kicked it most of the time, as well. He really took this "maximizing possessions" thing a heck of a long way.
I would be completely on board with a coach who never punted inside the opponent's 50 yard line.
C
Cyclone42
Guest
What is so crazy about it? Standard American football rules allow for 4 attempts to get 10 yards, yet for some reason probably 98% of the time teams give up after 3. That is crazy.
The reason that most teams don't go for it on 4th down more (and TMQ points this out) is that most coaches would get blistered by fans, media, owners, etc. if they failed. It is easier to kick it away and then blame the players if you lose than to go for it, fail, and have to take responsibility for the call.
From one of TMQ's articles, here are his rules for going for it on 4th down:
• Inside your own 20, punt.
• From your 21 to 35, go for it on fourth-and-2 or less.
• From your 36 to midfield, go for it on fourth-and-3 or less.
• From the opposition 49 to opposition 30, go for it on fourth-and-4 or less.
• From the opposition 29 to opposition 3, go for it on fourth-and-3 or less.
• From the opposition 2 or 1, go for it.
• Exception: inside the opponent's 25, attempt a field goal if it's the fourth quarter and a field goal causes a tie or gives you the lead.
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No punting sounds fun. It would be just like playing madden or something. nobody punts in video games. plus its fun completing a 4th and long and watching your opponent get pisses.