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NBA Scout on Kane

swarthmoreCY said:
True, and scouts/GMs like to use their imagination on how much a guy can improve in those 5 years. In theory, Smart is five years behind Kane on his growth curve (although I still do not see why a current GM places so much emphasis on that far down the road when the player would likely be playing for a different GM, if not team). In reality I doubt Smart's game will change much more than Kane's has since he was a freshman. Smart is good in large part because he often is physically dominant, especially true when he built his stock in the high school level as a man among boys. Both live off of an advantage that will diminish in the NBA.
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I'm no NBA GM or contract expert, but even though the initial rookie contract is only 3 (4?) years long, I think most of them leave the player as a restricted free agent at the end. And a younger player is almost always a more cost-effective option than the veteran you’d have to sign to replace them (thus NBA teams hoarding picks like gold these days). So if the player develops into star, or even just a solid starter or rotation player, they will probably stay with the team for at least the first 8 years of their career unless some other team drastically overpays them.
 
If Kane has a great second half, does well in the tourney, the scouts won't care about his age.
 
MNCyGuy said:
I'm no NBA GM or contract expert, but even though the initial rookie contract is only 3 (4?) years long, I think most of them leave the player as a restricted free agent at the end. And a younger player is almost always a more cost-effective option than the veteran you’d have to sign to replace them (thus NBA teams hoarding picks like gold these days). So if the player develops into star, or even just a solid starter or rotation player, they will probably stay with the team for at least the first 8 years of their career unless some other team drastically overpays them.
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True, they have a better chance. But what is the percentage of draft picks that play for the GM that drafted them in years 5-10? Not high enough to put as much weight on potential as they do imo.
 
A good example of the young in college who are drafted high is Andre Drummond. After the UCONN game I didn't think he should be drafted high, but the dude is averaging a double double this year.
 
swarthmoreCY said:
True, they have a better chance. But what is the percentage of draft picks that play for the GM that drafted them in years 5-10? Not high enough to put as much weight on potential as they do imo.
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Assuming the GM isn't fired and the player isn't part of a trade or a bust? I'd say it's pretty damn high. Do you think Chris Bosh stayed in Toronto for 7 years because he loved that Canadian climate? That's the soonest he could become an unrestricted FA and leave. And even if they get traded, a high potential guy is going to be a more attractive trade chip than a guy who will always be a 9th or 10th man.
 
mtowncyclone13 said:
Guy A is better in 5 things.
Guy B is better in 1 thing.

"I'm not saying Guy A is better"

there is so much dang hype in basketball recruits. Get called a one-and-done in your 8th grad year suddenly you can do no wrong. Kane has played better than Smart this year as a whole. to be honest I thought Kane was taller than 6'4"
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Kane has a history of playing four years at 15 points or better.
 
Kane would be a good guy to target for a team that is built to win now, he won't need much development.
 
I would much rater draft Kane over a pg like Aaron Craft or a sg like Jerian Grant who are only 2 years younger than Kane.
 
I think the odds are very good that these aren't scouts or that they aren't saying anything of substance. What value does a scout who can quote 3pt% bring to an org
 
The NBA isn't always fool proof. There are lot of un drafted guys in the NBA...and a lot of top choices that are washing cars today.
 
He is easily my favorite non-KU player this year. Even if the NBA is dumb enough to let him slip away he can make a killing over in Europe with one of their top clubs. A point guard who can do it all.
 
awd4cy said:
I would much rater draft Kane over a pg like Aaron Craft or a sg like Jerian Grant who are only 2 years younger than Kane.
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Yeah, Aaron Craft has no more chance of 'developing' than Kane does, guy has been the exact same player three years in a row. He's not going to suddenly be thunder dunking it because he's playing against better players.

We just saw two guys tonight who could really develop in Wiggins and Embiid. The 21-22 year old guards (who are mostly smaller than Kane) in the second round aren't going to keep improving against better players like those two likely will.
 
NBA teams draft on how potentially good a player can be in several years, even though Kane could probably walk through the doors of the Boston Celtics and make an impact as soon as tomorrow.
 
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