Lol at Arizona
- Thread starter State43
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It is nuts, but the real question is: Would Bill Raftery have said "Onions!" when Hoiberg did it?
If so, that might have put the strategy back on the plus side of the ledger.
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He did in our game, too.
That said, I sure wish Fred had this kid, because he's deadly from 3.
If Fred had him he could probably coach him up to not run with the ball, the times he doesn't shoot threes.
In the situation of a tie game under 35 seconds, I don't think the analysis of whether to foul or not is based on whether ISU (or whoever the team is) has a better the chance of making a 3pt shot compared to the chances of the opponent missing the FTs. I think you assume that the opponent is going to hit the FTs and that you will be down 2 points. The decision the coach has to make is whether the he has a better chance of winning the game by fouling and then hitting a do-or-die 3pt shot, or winning the game by going into OT. That's a situational decision, and it depends on things like foul situation, physical condition of the teams, who has the momentum, David vs. Goliath scenario, potential mismatches that the opponent could exploit on the last posession, etc.
Although the exact circumstances aren't the same, the bigger-picture decision is similar to the one that happens in FB where a team has to decide between a do-or-die 2pt conversion for the win or taking the relatively certain PAT kick and playing (another) overtime (i.e. ISU vs. NU a couple of years ago). The decision is between one do-or-die play/possession for the win, or taking one's chances in overtime.
Most of the time, I think the situation would dictate playing for OT. However, one can envision a situation where because of bad foul trouble, injury, exhaustion, etc. compared to an opponent that is in good shape, a coach could come to a conclusion that he can't reasonably expect to win in overtime, but he can reasonably expect to hit the game winning 3pt shot.
Also, overtime (not winning or losing) isn't guaranteed by not fouling...
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Screw that, the Big 10 already has a big enough ego. I would rather not see a Big 10 team win the champ
I agree. I would have probably agreed a week ago, but now my butthurt over KU is subsiding and I'm back to hating the B1G again.
I hope OSU loses to WSU and their plan crashes on the way back to Columbus.
If OSU wins it all, 4 of ISU's last 5 NCAA losses would to the eventual champion. All basically road games for ISU, three in the second round.
Here's a point ... OSU did not foul AZ with 2.1 seconds left and a 3-pt lead. After all the discussion after the 1st KU game, it seems far more coaches opt to play defense than foul.
I get it that 2.1 secs is a lot different than 6 (or whatever), but AZ still had time for a "catch and shoot."
I get it that 2.1 secs is a lot different than 6 (or whatever), but AZ still had time for a "catch and shoot."
I agree with what you are saying. But for the record, I was hoping we'd foul as soon as OSU threw the ball in. I understand the averages and the safe bet and I definitely understand why Fred did what he did. I really don't think this situation would have turned into a "Fire Fred" fiasco though, had he chosen to foul and we still lost. Look at how we lost games in OT this year, look how our offense is compared to our Defense. Yeah, safety says let the game play out, but I stil believe in this circumstance Fred could have easily made a case had he chosen to foul. There are a lot of outs based on how this season went that Fred could have called on. The best, imo, being we just don't play well in OT, we don't have the depth. We were playing to win and move on, that's all. For this type of situation, I don't think it would have been an out of this world decision to foul craft. Looking at hour our season went, if we don't win in regulation, we don't win.
Ya ohio state basically got the basketball god's blessing when they beat us. I'd start betting OSU to winait all whether we like it or not
I would have had no problem with fouling at that point either, or anywhere down to 20 seconds. That still leaves plenty of time to set up a good shot.
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If osu goes to the championship, I probably win the pool I am in and the $$$ comes my way!!!
I hate them, but have an alternative motive
I hate them, but have an alternative motive
Heck no. It lowers expected chance of winning statistically. But it lowers it less at Iowa State than anywhere else because there wasn't a school in the country with a larger offensive-defensive spread. Offense was like 8th in Kenpom, defense was 200+. Add in for situation, where we've struggled in late game stops, and the impact of a "bad strategy" is lessened even more. It may have almost become a wash.
Iowa State scored 1.12 pts/possession on the day. Craft wasn't shooting free throws well..still bad play, but like I said less bad in this certain situation than probably any other.